Looking around I find a story from Jan. 6th that had it 14R to 10D in the house and 6R to 4D in the senate. And this from Jan. 12.
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Not all retirements are created equal. While Democrats are touting the fact that more Republicans have announced they’re not running for reelection in both the House and the Senate, the reality is that the Democratic retirements in the House have come from districts that are tougher to defend.
Of the 10 House Democrats to announce they’re not running for reelection, The Cook Political Report has rated eight of the races as competitive — with two seats already rated as likely to flip to Republicans. Of the 13 House Republicans leaving office, just two of their races are rated as competitive — with one seat likely to flip to Democrats.
Indeed, the shifting political winds even prompted one Republican to withdraw his retirement. Rep. Jim Gerlach, who represents a Democratic-friendly suburban Philadelphia seat, last week dropped out of the Republican gubernatorial primary and announced that he’d stand for reelection.
“The quality of these retirements is more important than the quantity. The more important question than who has more retirements is who has more problematic retirements,” said Wasserman.
The impact of retirement on the Senate political picture is mixed: Republicans faced their own retirement wave last year and are defending five seats in battleground states — Ohio, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Missouri and Florida — giving Democrats an opportunity to stem losses.
Dodd’s retirement also gives his party a boost since highly popular Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal quickly took his place on the Democratic ballot. Still, one senior Democratic operative said there wouldn’t have been as much urgency for Dodd to step down if the national political environment for Democrats weren’t as bad as it currently is.
In contrast, Dorgan’s retirement in North Dakota gives Republicans a strong chance to pick up his seat, with Hoeven as the expected GOP nominee. “It’s a symptom of where we are right now — it’s a tough time for us,” said one senior Democratic operative. “Nobody’s having any fun up there on the Hill.”
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