Well Hello everyone, it's been 3 years since I've been on this site, (I joined in 04) and it's interesting seeing so many of the same players still here, Frank, spot5050, pstarr, Dezakin (the man who set me straight on nuclear energy) all the moderators of course. The threads have not changed much either, which is honestly a little surprising. I was hoping the site would have moderated a bit more than it has; true it isn't as tilted as it used to be, but it still seems to be attracting a heavy dose of fast-crash doomers who excel at "why we can't" and those who seem to crave a collapse of civilization. That said, the site is still an excellent treasure trove of discussion to read through and educate yourself.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Frank', 'I')'ve been a member for quite a few years also (late-2004) and although I've been following "energy" trends for 30 years I always think of Devil's position (remember him?). This was that although Peak Oil is captivating, the substantive issue in front of us is global warming/climate change. Mankind is rapidly and irreversibly changing the planet we live on. This is the real issue, not whether or not a few more years of liquid hydrocarbon production will extend the ride or not.
In the context of history, 10 or 20 years or a few generations is NOTHING!
PeakOil is You
I was a member of this forum in 2003/2004
Re: I was a member of this forum in 2003/2004
by FatherOfTwo » Fri 15 Jun 2012, 13:32:15
Frank, I too remember Devil and I agree completely that this is the issue - mankind's voracious appetite for the earth's resources. Capitalism has clearly brought many good things to us, and clearly its been the best way to motivate people, but not having it incorporate the true costs of what nature gives us will be the most glaring mistake of the model. PeakOil is a side issue, although a large economic one at that. It's a multi-year or even decade long undulating plateau - look how oil and gas production are currently way up in the US significantly... alas, my poor, poor NG stocks!
It's now obvious (to me at least) that there are other energy sources that would be available enough in ample supply that they can significantly help the downward slide down the slope of oil. Yes, yes, scale out and all that - I'm familiar with the re-torts. Clearly we'll be scaling out during a time of economic upheaval etc. It's going to be painful.
The thing is, after all these years, after that initial freak out, my opinion remains the same - the best thing you can do is try to reduce your footprint, put yourself in the best economic position you can, and work for positive change towards a wholesale cultural change. My 2 girls are older now, we talk about the environment and I try to give them as even handed an explanation as I can. It is encouraging going to their school assemblies and seeing the heavy focus on the environment as it is setting a very good foundation for them - fortunately they are still young enough that they aren't yet aware of the scope of the problems that confront us. But these are the cards we've all been dealt in these lifetimes of ours, the question remains how are we going to play the game out. I for one hope that the positive approach is the one we most adopt.
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FatherOfTwo - Tar Sands
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Re: I was a member of this forum in 2003/2004
by KingM » Fri 15 Jun 2012, 19:47:05
I went through many of the same things. I was never a hard core doomer, but I thought we were in for some very wrenching changes. Maybe we are, but I'm pretty sure we'll muddle through. In any event, the best evidence that Peak Oil has failed to materialize as a major issue is that this site remains moribund. If PO were upon us, this place would be flooded with hundreds of posters. It isn't.
Instead, there are some religious fanatics (PO being the religion), some PO atheists, and several of us who kick around because we come here to read about energy stuff and occasionally get sucked into discussions.
Instead, there are some religious fanatics (PO being the religion), some PO atheists, and several of us who kick around because we come here to read about energy stuff and occasionally get sucked into discussions.
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Re: I was a member of this forum in 2003/2004
by KingM » Fri 15 Jun 2012, 19:53:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')It's not pretty of course, the economy grinding down a hill, periodically smashing the breaks a bit hard, shedding jobs, shedding demand. Those in charge of the macro factors of the economy managing to keep the current dollar valuation of the economy slightly positive, thus preventing an economic apocalypse that would make Lehman look like cheese fries.
')It's not pretty of course, the economy grinding down a hill, periodically smashing the breaks a bit hard, shedding jobs, shedding demand. Those in charge of the macro factors of the economy managing to keep the current dollar valuation of the economy slightly positive, thus preventing an economic apocalypse that would make Lehman look like cheese fries.
No it isn't. The global economy is over 70 trillion dollars now, almost double in real terms what it was in the year 2000. This has been one of the fastest growth periods in human history. The US and some other advanced economies have been more stagnant, but that's one (shrinking) part of the story.
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KingM - Tar Sands
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Re: I was a member of this forum in 2003/2004
by ralfy » Sat 16 Jun 2012, 10:16:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I') went through many of the same things. I was never a hard core doomer, but I thought we were in for some very wrenching changes. Maybe we are, but I'm pretty sure we'll muddle through. In any event, the best evidence that Peak Oil has failed to materialize as a major issue is that this site remains moribund. If PO were upon us, this place would be flooded with hundreds of posters. It isn't.
Instead, there are some religious fanatics (PO being the religion), some PO atheists, and several of us who kick around because we come here to read about energy stuff and occasionally get sucked into discussions.
Instead, there are some religious fanatics (PO being the religion), some PO atheists, and several of us who kick around because we come here to read about energy stuff and occasionally get sucked into discussions.
Peak oil materialized many times, with the U.S. in 1970 and around two-thirds of oil-producing countries today. Perhaps you are referring to a drop in global oil production. But BP and others are already showing signs leading to that. See http://ralfyman.blogspot.com for links to dozens of reports from various organizations, none of them "flooding" this forum.
Also, with a drop in oil production, rather than seeing this place "flooded with hundreds of posters," expect the opposite. The same thing goes with many of the reports referred to hardly mentioned in mainstream media.
Finally, fanaticism works both ways.
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Re: I was a member of this forum in 2003/2004
by ralfy » Sat 16 Jun 2012, 10:22:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '
')
No it isn't. The global economy is over 70 trillion dollars now, almost double in real terms what it was in the year 2000. This has been one of the fastest growth periods in human history. The US and some other advanced economies have been more stagnant, but that's one (shrinking) part of the story.
')
No it isn't. The global economy is over 70 trillion dollars now, almost double in real terms what it was in the year 2000. This has been one of the fastest growth periods in human history. The US and some other advanced economies have been more stagnant, but that's one (shrinking) part of the story.
But much of that amount is based on spending and debt. In fact, what backs that economy is more than a quadrillion dollars in total money supply, much of it consisting of unregulated derivatives, with most money consisting of numbers in accounts or contracts and hardly backed by physical assets.
Even G10 debt is roughly equivalent to that, and that debt is supposed to be used to cover more debt at ten times the amount:
"The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives"
http://maxkeiser.com/2012/06/01/the-rea ... rivatives/
Fallout from 2008 started with only around a trillion of that, leading to something like 30 trillion dollars vaporized, and governments scrambling to bail out banks and investors. Behind that is conventional oil production barely rising, with increasing demand met with non-conventional sources, as reported by BP.
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