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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

I'm so sorry, everybody

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 21:08:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')nteresting JD if this thread ain’t chum.

Somewhat along the lines of my kids and some other close family members finally looking at this site and also reading that POET is building a cellulosic ethanol plant extension to cook cobs and stalks in addition to grain and eventually other stuff.

They, of course still believe technology will save us.

What in particular changed your mind regarding PO?


Carlhole has it right. I didn't change my mind. From the beginning, I've always accepted that oil is finite and will peak some day, and have explicitly stated such on dozens of occasions. The idea that I don't "accept peak oil" (i.e. don't believe oil will peak) was a straw man being foisted on me by liars and frauds. So I thought I would spell out my position more flamboyantly, in big, EZ-read letters that even the idiots here at peakoil.com can understand.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o you still think tech will save us?


Yes. My position hasn't changed one iota. Oil will peak, and it will be no big deal because we will smoothly switchover to alternatives. That has always been my position.

The idea that there are some people out there who believe the earth's oil supplies are infinite and will never peak is just another peak oil myth.

Honestly, think about it Pops. The EIA, CERA, Mike Lynch, Peter O'dell, Yergin -- the biggest uber-cornucopians of them all -- they all concede that oil supplies are finite and will peak some day.

So where are you getting the idea that some people believe that the supply of crude oil is infinite and won't peak? Simply put: you're fabricating it. It's a straw man. There are no such people.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 21:13:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'Y')ou going to rename your blog?

Peak Oil Bunked


No. I think Peak Oil Debunked is exactly the right name. I have, however, added a fine print disclaimer to help simpletons like yourself get over the mental hurdle:

DISCLAIMER FOR IDIOTS: This site officially accepts that oil is finite, and will peak someday.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby kadoomsoon » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 22:41:28

1.You aren't going to make 80 billion barrels of oil from shale every year.
2. Free ready made oil in the ground will slow down.
3. Prices will go up
4. here we are.
Last edited by kadoomsoon on Wed 19 Dec 2007, 15:10:20, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby Bas » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 22:44:25

hunger strike broken so soon eh? ; )

so when would you put peak oil JD?
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 23:25:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'h')unger strike broken so soon eh? ; )

so when would you put peak oil JD?


Right now. And by "now" I mean any time in the next 20 or so years. The exact date isn't important. Only a hair-splitting pedant would expect me to get it exactly right. If I miss it by a few years, I'll still be right because this is such an critically important issue. I'll also be almost dead-on accurate in the larger scheme of things.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby keehah » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 23:29:57

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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby Bas » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 23:35:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'h')unger strike broken so soon eh? ; )

so when would you put peak oil JD?


Right now. And by "now" I mean any time in the next 20 or so years. The exact date isn't important. Only a hair-splitting pedant would expect me to get it exactly right. If I miss it by a few years, I'll still be right because this is such an critically important issue. I'll also be almost dead-on accurate in the larger scheme of things.


So you think the plateau we hit now is due to political factors? lemme tell you something; if we hadn't had the political plateau in the early seventies, we would've had the absolute oil production much sooner. Your "apology" may have been appropriate 2 years ago but the way you bring it now makes you look like a jester.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby venky » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 01:22:42

JD, do you see any threat to the world economy from rising oil prices and a possible decline in world oil production in the near term ie... the next 20 years? Leaving aside the doomsday scenario's , I dont buy them either, do you think the transistion will be totally painless amidst continued economic growth and business as usual?

Oil is a critical component of economic activity, so I find it hard to believe that we will get off so lightly. At the least wouldn't we see a repeat of the oil shocks of the 70's?
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby eastbay » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 01:36:38

Oil is a critical component of economic activity, so I find it hard to believe that we will get off so lightly. At the least wouldn't we see a repeat of the oil shocks of the 70's?

I'm not sayin' you do venky, but I get a sense that many people think we're heading to a repeat of the 1973/ 1979 gas lines scenario.

This is only partially true. There will be gas lines, but only for a brief time. We'll experience a brief repeat of the gas lines period and then we'll be on to something we've never seen and most can't imagine. No gas at any price. Cars and motorcycles will be utterly worthless.

Don't expect us to then begin a happy era of merry bicycling either. Bicycling will be far too dangerous in most cities unless they're armed and ride in packs.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby Concerned » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 04:12:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')No. I think Peak Oil Debunked is exactly the right name. I have, however, added a fine print disclaimer to help simpletons like yourself get over the mental hurdle:

DISCLAIMER FOR IDIOTS: This site officially accepts that oil is finite, and will peak someday.


How much traffic is your site getting? Seems a bit quiet of late, bit of a spurt probably when you attacked Stuart from TOD.

Anyhow you are just showing yourself for the jackass you are, by posting threads such as this.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby Aaron » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 12:21:44

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The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 13:47:37

Lighten up, folks. He's harmless enough. We're all scared shitless of what's coming. Each of us deals with it in our own way.

Some of us buy ammo, some of us shrug their shoulders and claim there's no point in "preparing" because there's no telling what's coming or when it will get here, some of us plant gardens, some of us move to what we hope will be ideal locations, and some of us try to make themselves believe that there is an "alternative" to 85,000,000 barrels a day of Black Gold.

JD has done a good job of deluding himself into believing in the hilarious "alternative" concept. Fine. Good for him. If it makes him feel better, what's the harm?

Rock on, JD. We love your innocent naivete. It's charming.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby FoxV » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 15:08:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'Y')es. My position hasn't changed one iota. Oil will peak, and it will be no big deal because we will smoothly switchover to alternatives. That has always been my position.

well you Technocopian's better hurry up. Oil production is in decline and so far the only serious effort put into a transition has been on the ethanol horse (dead within two years, good call George :roll: ). We still have many more of these boondoggles to work through before we start hitting on solutions with some substance (such as going through all the expensive RnD required to come up with a way to get people to take the bus).

If there's going to be a smooth transition, the solutions need to start showing up soon for people adopt them in any reasonable amount of time before there's a crisis. Just look at the current "rush" to abandon SUVs for hybrids (and EVs :lol:). Unless part of the transition includes cattle prodding people into the new technology. But that wouldn't be a very smooth transition now would it.

In the meantime, 2 years post peak and counting.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby Twilight » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 16:02:01

Alternatives to the internal combustion engine will have to scale faster than the internal combustion engine.

Just saying.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby Concerned » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 16:09:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'A')lternatives to the internal combustion engine will have to scale faster than the internal combustion engine.

Just saying.


LOL good point. A great statistic would be that 50 million buses a year getting produced, rather than cars which will ferry around one rich person.

PS Yes, I do own exactly one car.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby BigTex » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 16:45:13

I wish there were a techno fix for PO, but all of the alternatives to oil have, so far, resembled prosthetic human limbs in terms of cost and functionality--no matter how good they get they are still far inferior to what they are replacing and the best ones are only available to the rich.

There is an elegance to oil that does not become apparent until you try to replace it. Kind of like one of your arms or legs.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 17:24:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I') wish there were a techno fix for PO, but all of the alternatives to oil have, so far, resembled prosthetic human limbs in terms of cost and functionality--no matter how good they get they are still far inferior to what they are replacing and the best ones are only available to the rich.

You can get a hydrogen car for a cool million. Maybe they can get that down to 7 or 8 hundred g's before the chaos starts.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby gnm » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 19:16:11

I wonder how much funny money it will take to buy one of those when a loaf of bread is $15.....

I also wonder where you would fill one up.... :lol:
:lol: :lol:

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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 19:24:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '
')I also wonder where you would fill one up.... :lol:
easy, dontcha know? Hydrogen fill-up stations will sprout up like mushrooms when the gasoline is in short supply.
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Re: I'm so sorry, everybody

Unread postby PrairieMule » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 20:42:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '
')I also wonder where you would fill one up.... :lol:
easy, dontcha know? Hydrogen fill-up stations will sprout up like mushrooms when the gasoline is in short supply.


Hydrogen, mushroom:sounds like a blast!
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Maybe they could give this subcompact Chariot of Fire a more familiar body design? You know something still fresh on the American Psyce.
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