Peak Oil
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I'm not sure it's THE END

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Unread postby mistel » Mon 21 Mar 2005, 21:42:16

"The Mayan civilisation of Central America collapsed following a series of intense droughts, suggests the most detailed climatic study to date."

Ok, thats 1, Mayans due to drought

I was thinking of Easter Island, collapsed because they cut down all thier trees, couldn't build boats, couldn't fish. Maybe also because of tribal warfare. (hey look, I'm helping NevadaGhosts arguement!)
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Unread postby TrueKaiser » Mon 21 Mar 2005, 21:43:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mistel', 'Q')uote "the roman empire collapsed due to over reach and depletion of their gold reserves etc"

I am not an expert but my understanding of the cause of the collape of the Roman Empire is that they were conquered by the Barbarians from the north. Also, when the last Empiror was replaced with a leader from the Barbarians, which historians say is when the Empire collapsed, it would have effected the average citizen very little. It was an orderly change of government, not "chaos" as the word collapse would suggest.


the barbarians were just a symptom of the collapse. the roman army always fought against the barbarians before, it wasn't until after they went into decline that they started having a impact. if i remember correctly this is after the break up into eastern and western roman empire. the eastern empire fell because they could no longer mine enough gold to pay the tributes to the barbarians.
Religion is excellent stuff for keeping the common people quiet.
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Unread postby HonestPessimist » Mon 21 Mar 2005, 21:49:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', 'd')on't get me wrong, 2 bucks a gallon is a lot of money. though i have yet to see anyone panic here or read about it in the news where it is a large panic and not a few people complaining.


That's because people are getting used to the idea of paying a lot of money for gas nowadays than two years ago or almost four years ago when the gas prices were too high for some and accusations of price gouging were making the news. Since then, gas prices fluctuating up and down while making people getting used to ever-increasing gas prices.

In my city in Ohio, I get the local news about people complaining about the gas prices and talked about cutting back traveling and so-so.
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Unread postby Chuckmak » Mon 21 Mar 2005, 21:51:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mistel', 'Q')uote "the roman empire collapsed due to over reach and depletion of their gold reserves etc"

I am not an expert but my understanding of the cause of the collape of the Roman Empire is that they were conquered by the Barbarians from the north. Also, when the last Empiror was replaced with a leader from the Barbarians, which historians say is when the Empire collapsed, it would have effected the average citizen very little. It was an orderly change of government, not "chaos" as the word collapse would suggest.


the barbarians were just a symptom of the collapse. the roman army always fought against the barbarians before, it wasn't until after they went into decline that they started having a impact. if i remember correctly this is after the break up into eastern and western roman empire. the eastern empire fell because they could no longer mine enough gold to pay the tributes to the barbarians.


this right here goes to show that you learn something new everyday. just a quick thought.
"if god doesn't exist, it is necessary that we invent him" - Voltaire

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Unread postby ConsumptionJane » Mon 21 Mar 2005, 22:42:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here seems to be a lot of DOOM and GLOOM on this site.


Most definately. This is why I take great lengths when introducing peak oil not confuse the geological reality of peak oil theory with its inevitable but unkown consequences. All the negative talk about its consequences erodes the credence of peak oil theory; it is simple, has strong empircal evidence and extraordinary explanatory coherence - especially in light of recent news.

For example, I was overjoyed that peak oil was actually on the table at Congress last week but also dismayed that gentlman Bartlett even mentioned Malthus. How many house members started rolling their eyes at this point? I think he should have stuck with the data - it is overwhelming enough - and leave the consequences for the policy makers to muse over and call themselves chicken little.

And all the "dots" that are connected to conspiracy theories from peak oil don't do much to help advance its acceptance either, at least not outside the "red pill" community. 8O

The few people I have informed about peak oil automatically see the EOTWAWKI and then I am left with the mess of trying to lift their spirits. I suppose that the scope of the problem is so large that this reaction is natural and we really should be questioning "life as we know it". But after initially succumbing to humming the REM song, I pulled thru and regained my skepticism while accepting peak oil theory. Now I introduce "oil awareness" as just that. My friends can read stuff on die-off.org if they want but I don't direct them there.

I think we will be waiting in gas lines before bread lines. The problem of short supply will show up in the market first (as may be evident now). Prices and demand will fluctuate as we ride the bumpy infrastructure-induced production plateau until the point when peak oil is realized by terminal decline. In the meantime, new projects will come online, new pipelines will be built, new discoveries will be found, demand will vary and alternatives will become more attractive. The onset of Peak Oil will test everyone's faith in the market god but I will keep my faith until then.

As for economic collapse, dollar runs, housing bubbles, die-offs, global warming and future resource wars, peak oil may be an exacerbating factor but who's to say that all this sh*t will hit the same fan at the same time. Maybe, maybe not. I'ts sort of a question of Pascal's Wager and how much each of us is willing to bet. I'm just putting in the ante for now.
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Unread postby linlithgowoil » Wed 23 Mar 2005, 06:46:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')ell the mayans collapsed due to lack of good soil for their maze/corn. the roman empire collapsed due to over reach and depletion of their gold reserves etc.


thing is though - what effect did this have on the average person? not much. yes, rome was finished, but so what? as soon as the roman empire ended did people just turn to sand and die? no, they just got on with things in a brand new way of life.

people on here are totally deluded sometimes. yes, civilisations fall (the USSR anyone?), but it doesnt mean the end of the world, simply because there is no such thing as a worldwide civilisation - despite what many people on here think. The collapse of the US (never going to happen) would cause worldwide shock and economic failures, but something else would take its place thereafter. People arent going to turn into zombies overnight. I dont doubt there'll initially be difficult periods if fuel prices escalate, but they always settle down. There has never been a revolution etc. that has lasted for years and years and years. Its usually a short sharp shock, followed by a new order.
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Unread postby Doly » Wed 23 Mar 2005, 07:51:24

There have been tough times that have lasted for fairly long periods, though. One of them was called the Middle Ages.
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