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I have a bad feeling about this week.

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby jboogy » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 21:05:37

There was a guy on just now,ara sumthin',builder I think talking about how fundies',employment,product. are good and the downturn is do to phsychological problems in the public's confidence.HA! his company lost 10% of it's value and he's shittin' bricks,they're gonna be comin' out of the woodwork telling us how good the economy is and we're crazy for not buying,buying,buying!lots of these dudes are gonna lose their shirts and I have no pity.
Perhaps the population would be less swayed to socialism if we had fewer examples of socialism from our "Free Market Capitalists". -----fiddler dave
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby Daculling » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 21:08:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'I') got a feeling this is going to be BAD.I can't explain it but I'm getting the creeps.I've seen a few people on TV saying things could get real ugly.They NEVER say that on TV.Am I paranoid or has it started for real?


Well... I don't know about anyone else here but I'm really stressed out... drinking... back pain... and I'm about 70% cash. 8O

I think the markets are waking up faster than we thought. Stock drop and $ drop to me looks like the rest of the world is pulling out of the US... but what do I know...
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby TWilliam » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 21:10:40

Oh, and did someone mention unemployment?

American Home Mortgage lays off 7,000

Anyone think these are the only jobs that will be lost in the coming weeks?
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby jboogy » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 21:20:23

It's about to snowball ,last friday was just a taste so we know what it's gonna look like when it happens for real.Haven't we all been saying this was gonna happen,we were right and nobody would listen.None so blind as those that refuse to see.Sad to think even now most 'mercans are completely unaware that some serious shit's goin' down.The signs were there, all people had to do was put down the video games and turn off the TV and read a little bit,there were plenty of smart guys trying to warn us.I'm just glad I listened.
Perhaps the population would be less swayed to socialism if we had fewer examples of socialism from our "Free Market Capitalists". -----fiddler dave
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby eastbay » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 21:40:04

I can't believe all this hyper-doom nonsense around here lately. Oh sure, peak oil will nail us all in time... probably sooner than later, but for now the economy is like a beautiful rose bush in need of a trimming.

In no time at all after the trim, it's as pretty as ever. All we see now is the start of an overdue pruning.

Sorry folks, I can be as doomeristic as anyone about peak oil, but the strongest and safest economy on earth isn't ready to surrender and wilt quite yet. :)
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby firestarter » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 21:46:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '
')
Sorry folks, I can be as doomeristic as anyone about peak oil, but the strongest and safest economy on earth isn't ready to surrender and wilt quite yet. :)


Strongest? Safest? What you smokin Willis?
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby eastbay » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 21:58:39

What you smokin Willis?

Davidoffs. In the burgundy box. Two a day like clockwork and I have no intention of stopping either.

I picked them up cheap at the duty free in Narita last month returning home to The Worlds Strongest Economy.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby TWilliam » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 21:58:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'S')orry folks, I can be as doomeristic as anyone about peak oil, but the strongest and safest economy on earth isn't ready to surrender and wilt quite yet. :)


Let's hope you're right (or not, depending on one's perspective of course)...

GLOBAL MARKETS-Darker credit mood hits stocks, dollar; bonds up

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')We really need the economy to be strong to get through this subprime problem, and it appears not to be as strong as we thought," said William Rutherford, president of Rutherford Investment Management, LLC, in Portland, Oregon. (my emphasis)
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby eastbay » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 21:59:49

TWilliam, I certainly hope I'm right too... 8O
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby jboogy » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:17:46

Perhaps the population would be less swayed to socialism if we had fewer examples of socialism from our "Free Market Capitalists". -----fiddler dave
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby eastbay » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:38:14

Two weeks ago Cramer said COP would rise to $120.00 making it an immediate buy, buy, buy!

I'm thinking maybe he had a decimal point misplaced.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby firestarter » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:48:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '[')i]What you smokin Willis?

Davidoffs. In the burgundy box. Two a day like clockwork and I have no intention of stopping either.

I picked them up cheap at the duty free in Narita last month returning home to The Worlds Strongest Economy.



:) Good one. You got me to cry Uncle.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby eastbay » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:52:48

Funny one firestarter. Uncle... :-D

I prefer the Davidoffs. They last longer because they're longer and fatter, not skinny like the regular standard-sized cigs. I've been at two cigs/day for decades now.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby PrairieMule » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 23:23:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'O')h, and did someone mention unemployment?

American Home Mortgage lays off 7,000

Anyone think these are the only jobs that will be lost in the coming weeks?



That's awful.

Not surprising but still sad so many lost their jobs. As a casualty of one of Countrywide's RIF's(reduction in force) it sucks. Although I was just rank-and-file worker bee, I had made a few friends that were Account execs who are out on the street. It's a hard fall going from a $100K a year gig to selling cingular phone plans at the mall.

I just don't see this turning around for years and that's being very optimistic.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby Zardoz » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 00:01:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'c')heck cramers freak-out http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=452808336

Wow. That was epic. He's genuinely scared.

"We have Armageddon. We have Armageddon."

Oh, my...
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 09:37:53

I've said somewhere before that the Fed wasn't going to help anybody. They won't even when there is shouting on the streets for them to. Well, they haven't and they won't. While raising rates will be a real trick now it is still possible for the Fed to keep rates where they are without much trouble. The reason is that lowering rates engenders inflation which can eat away at the wealthy's stash. The Fed can't have that. There has to be a deflationary level of default before the Fed can allow rates to go down. Look, it is simple, there has been a run up during which the rich were able to reduce the percentage of ownership necessary to maintain control. Looking forward they will need to increase that percentage in order to both maintain control and to live at what they consider an acceptable level. They will purchase it after the prices come down. The rich are preparing to live off of the cream. They know there won't be enough cream to go around for everyone to have enough.

As far as the future is concerned, their vision involves China. Hank Paulson is (was?) over there right now arranging the order of things. China will rise up because it benefits the rich. America and China are interlinked. Their timing revolves around their plans for Iraq. Everything they have planned depends upon their winning in Iraq. They must keep up the oil lie until they can destroy demand in the US at the same time as ensuring that China can eek itself out a productive future on the ten to twenty million barrels a day that it will be limited to, while the US learns to live on ten (or less).

Along the way the rich plan on finishing off its potential competitors one group at a time. They have done in the Zimbabwes. They are now going after whomever on the next tier is weak enough for high oil and economic collapse to topple. Some of that is American domestic and some of it is vulnerable Central and South American and Eastern European (amongst others).

I don't think the rich realize just how much and in what way the rest of the world is going to fight back. Most dangerous, the Russians certainly, even without the sophisticated financial infrastructure, are not going to take it lying down.
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby jboogy » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 12:45:27

That's some pretty convoluted logic evilG,Do you have anything to support this scenario besides your own suspicions?
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby Zardoz » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 21:24:10

Wheeeeeeeeeee!!!

U.S. credit squeeze frays world financial markets

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he unraveling U.S. subprime mortgage market is causing other markets to fray around the edges faster than anyone expected.

As the Federal Reserve convenes for its latest meeting on Tuesday, the corporate credit markets are grinding to a halt. About $90 billion of bonds and nearly $250 billion of loans are still awaiting buyers, several high-profile hedge funds from the U.S. East Coast to Australia have failed, and a major U.S. mortgage lender this week closed its doors.

"All these people saying there is no credit crunch and no economic impact - 'Are you kidding me?'", said Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer at TCW Group in Los Angeles, which manages assets worth $160 billion.

"Ask Goldman if there is no credit crunch, ask Bear Stearns if there is no credit crunch, call up American Home Mortgage and ask them if there is no credit crunch. Come on! It is staring you in the face," Gundlach added.

Wells Fargo, other lenders curb mortgage loans

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ells Fargo & Co, Wachovia Corp, and other lenders are limiting mortgages to some of their more creditworthy borrowers as worries about U.S. homeowner defaults widen.

Wells Fargo, the second-largest U.S. mortgage lender, said it is curtailing issuance of "Alt-A" home loans through brokers, while Wachovia has stopped entirely. Wachovia also said one lending unit has temporarily halted its Alt-A production.

Lenders are making fewer home loans once thought to be safe because investors now perceive those loans to be risky. The changes could worsen the U.S. housing slump by putting home ownership beyond the reach of a larger number of Americans.

Countrywide debt protection costs leap

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he cost to insure the debt of Countrywide Financial Corp. surged on Friday as investors fretted over the impact of delinquencies by residential mortgage borrowers.

Countrywide's credit default swap spreads widened by almost 100 basis points, reaching more than 300 basis points, or $300,000 per year for five years to insure $10 million in debt, from 215 basis points at Thursday's close.

Renewed concerns about the health of brokers and insurers emerged on Friday after Standard & Poor's changed its outlook on Bear Stearns Cos (BSC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to negative, from stable, indicating a higher likelihood of being downgraded over the next one to two years.

Wachovia unit halts Alt-A home loans

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')achovia Corp. (WB.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the fourth-largest U.S. bank, on Friday said its Vertice lending unit has temporarily stopped making "Alt-A" home loans, a day after the company stopped making such loans through brokers. Vertice was a brand created in March for the combined entities of American Mortgage Network and Wachovia Mortgage Third Party Lending. A spokesman said Vertice will monitor market conditions and reintroduce products as conditions become more favorable.

Wachovia stopped making Alt-A loans through all brokers on Thursday, the spokesman said. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has said it is also curtailing such loans.

Alt-A loans, short for "Alternative-A," fall between prime and subprime in quality. Investors have shied away from the loans on concern about rising defaults, and that credit issues affecting riskier "subprime" loans would spread to higher-quality loans.

Novastar suspends funding some loans

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ovastar Financial Inc., which provides mortgages to people with weak credit, said on Friday it will temporarily suspend funding some of its loans.

The affected mortgages are wholesale loans that have not been locked in, according to the company's customer service center. The suspension of funding will last until Aug. 7. The company will then re-evaluate the temporary halt.

Mortgage companies are finding it difficult to sell the loans they originate to investors in the secondary market. Those loans sales are vital because they generate the capital lenders need to keep funding new loans.
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby Roccland » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 21:28:45

Image
500 MPH into a brick wall - me
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Re: I have a bad feeling about next week.

Unread postby jboogy » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 21:42:42

Remember how for the past couple years everyone was saying that housing is what's keeping the economy afloat?building supplies,supply houses,builders,realtors,brokers,consumer spending from equity cash-outs.Well we are in some pretty shit now IF that was true ,cause it looks like NOBODIES gonna be buying a house for awhile.I'm tightening my safety harness one more notch.
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