[hillsidedigger]

A very hard crash and soon? It sure looks like it to me. The cliff can't be more than 5 to 15 years ahead.

[Ludi]

Something like a rewind of the the past century or so, as declining energy removes the luxuries we've enjoyed such as home electrification, automobiles, and jobs. But with a much larger population and few of the natural resources of earlier times.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'S')o, this site is weighted heavily towards the doom side of peak oil awareness and tends to attract those whose juvenile fantasies about it are stimulated. Arguing with them is like arguing with those who believe that Jesus is destined to return very, very shortly. Any contrary ideas are attacked or ridiculed reflexively.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'S')o, this site is weighted heavily towards the doom side of peak oil awareness and tends to attract those whose juvenile fantasies about it are stimulated. Arguing with them is like arguing with those who believe that Jesus is destined to return very, very shortly. Any contrary ideas are attacked or ridiculed reflexively.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'S')o, this site is weighted heavily towards the doom side of peak oil awareness and tends to attract those whose juvenile fantasies about it are stimulated. Arguing with them is like arguing with those who believe that Jesus is destined to return very, very shortly. Any contrary ideas are attacked or ridiculed reflexively.

[GoghGoner]

End? What the heck kind-of question is this? What ends? Time isn't going to end unless the universe collapses on itself.

I think the global civilization is headed down into a dark age. I expect a growth in religious beliefs, a decline of education until the civilization is illiterate. Third-world countries will have die-offs within 20 years, developed nations will become 3rd-world and then have population growth for 50-100 years (like Haiti does now at 2-3%).

I hope humans will be guided by evolutionary processes that will result in the emergence of new species. I hope this wasn't a waste of time and we will become extinct.

Greek Dark Ages

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'I') hope humans will be guided by evolutionary processes that will result in the emergence of new species. I hope this wasn't a waste of time and we will become extinct.

Greek Dark Ages

[Ludi]

There's no reason to think humans won't eventually become extinct, unless you believe we will "escape to the stars."

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'S')o why do you post here? Just enjoying poking a stick at animals (gorillas?) in cages?

[GoghGoner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')here's no reason to think humans won't eventually become extinct, unless you believe we will "escape to the stars."

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'I') hope that humans do not become extinct before humans give birth to a new species -- you have to think what I meant, not what I wrote

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
')In the likes/dislikes threads I also brought up the idea of starting up a whole new peak oil forum, with a ban on Doom, or its opposite, whatever you call that - Cornucopianism is a bit wordy. How about Corn? A site with a pure focus on discussion of the facts, that would attract real experts in these matters.

[GoghGoner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I')n the likes/dislikes threads I also brought up the idea of starting up a whole new peak oil forum, with a ban on Doom, or its opposite, whatever you call that - Cornucopianism is a bit wordy. How about Corn? A site with a pure focus on discussion of the facts, that would attract real experts in these matters.

[TheDude]

Our interests differ. Finiteness has already been made manifest, but to what degree this will affect us in our lifetimes is another issue, regardless of what the panel of experts in A Crude Awakening have to say. This is a technical/logistics matter which requires a lot of slogging through info to collate properly, more of a scientific endeavor than a casual debate forum like this place.

So why have we hit peak propane? Decline in associated gas production or something? In the US that peak happened way back in 1996:



As for the 3rd world there's always simple fixes like solar cookers, at least for food, which is the primary issue in the tropics. Ostensibly with temps on the rise heat will be less and less of an issue. Hey, there's an entry for that upside of global warming thread.

[GoghGoner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', ' ')As for the 3rd world there's always simple fixes like solar cookers, at least for food

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')...they immediately retreat to their default position - which is overpopulation.

[pedalling_faster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kevin Green', 'S')hort of a significant natural disaster (which could have nothing to do with Peak oil anyways), I don't think this approach is correct. I don't think society will collapse overnight. I believe that it will be a very slow, thrashing decline. Prices will continue to slowly rise, the economy of our country will continue to sink, and eventually, a lot of us will suddenly want to live in oil-free Germany or Japan.

What are your thoughts? How do you think it's going to end?

[Revi]

I think "the end" will be a lot like the death of a city like Detroit. There were once thriving neighborhoods, but a lot of people moved out. Crime went up, and the rest left. Now there are huge abandoned areas that may be turned back into farmland.

We are going to be left to our own devices to figure out how to feed, house and warm ourselves.

Most people will cluster in those areas that offer relative security and regular meals. That doesn't mean they will get them. Fancy suburbs will turn into walled castles, with guards. Starving people will be all around them, waiting for a crust of bread to fall.

Cars are going to go first for a lot of people. It costs about $6000 a year to keep a car going, so a lot of unemployed people will find that they are on their last car soon.

Scrappers may be able to make a pickup pay for itself for a while longer, but most people will start to take the minivans that will make use of what used to tote around a kid or two, and now will be pressed into service.

It will resemble the situation in Octavia Butler's book Parable of the Sower.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of ... 28novel%29

[ian807]

Kevin,

I understand your reluctance to believe anything radically different could happen. Alan Greenspan had this reluctance for 40 years or thereabouts.

At first, peak oil is just a money problem. What oil there is gets more expensive. The cascade effect of this ripples through the economy, making any real recovery impossible in the USA and Europe and depressing the developing world.

Then it gets interesting. High fuel prices make globalization go in reverse. Financing for the now more expensive petroleum based fertilizer dries up. Plastics go from cheap to expensive. Food starts to cost more and more until your food budget makes up 1/2 of an average person's salary as it does in many other countries.

Militaries worldwide can no longer maintain the current configuration. We won't be maintaining bases across the globe anymore. By about 2050, nobody will. Expect political disruptions worldwide as power shifts unpredictably.

And it takes oil to *get* oil. That gets harder and more expensive too.

Are there alternatives like natural gas and coal? Sure, and we'll use them. We'll always have some fossil energy source, at least in our lifetime. We may not have enough, in time to avoid really unpleasant transitional effects.

[GoghGoner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'O')ur interests differ. Finiteness has already been made manifest, but to what degree this will affect us in our lifetimes is another issue, regardless of what the panel of experts in A Crude Awakening have to say. This is a technical/logistics matter which requires a lot of slogging through info to collate properly, more of a scientific endeavor than a casual debate forum like this place.