[Carlhole]

Currency Blogger

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')uring the forty years from 1961 through 2000, the United States had a Democrat as president half of the time (1961-68, 1977-80, and 1993-2000) and a Republican president for the other twenty years (1969-1976 and 1981-1992). Power was shared, and the switch-overs occurred infrequently, so that it is fair to associate performance with the ruling presidential party. It’s hard for a party to blame its record on the previous incumbent, if they had eight or even twelve years to straighten things out. I chose five vital economic signs to grade each party’s performance: real GDP growth, growth in employment, consumer price inflation, the change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the change in the dollar against the mark and/or euro after 1998.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '[')url=http://currencythoughts.com/2008/08/19/how-the-us-economy-performed-under-democrat-and-republican-presidents/?referer=sphere_related_content/]Currency Blogger[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')uring the forty years from 1961 through 2000, the United States had a Democrat as president half of the time (1961-68, 1977-80, and 1993-2000) and a Republican president for the other twenty years (1969-1976 and 1981-1992). Power was shared, and the switch-overs occurred infrequently, so that it is fair to associate performance with the ruling presidential party. It’s hard for a party to blame its record on the previous incumbent, if they had eight or even twelve years to straighten things out. I chose five vital economic signs to grade each party’s performance: real GDP growth, growth in employment, consumer price inflation, the change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the change in the dollar against the mark and/or euro after 1998.

[Tyler_JC]

So Nixon is to be blamed for the 1973 oil shocks?

We're blaming Reagan for the Iranian revolution in 1979?

We're giving Clinton credit for creating the IT revolution?

We're blaming Bush for the crash of Tech Bubble?

I'm sorry, the economy runs on its own cycles regardless of who is in office.

The president can have some influence but this influence is often overwhelmed by external factors.

[Revi]

The Republicans like having the economy tank. Then they can lend more money, at higher interest.

We'll see what happens with the economy.

Obama can't screw it up any worse than Bush, can he?

[Duende]

cbxer55 wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd I will never call b.o. (sniffs under arm) my president.

[Javaman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '[')url=http://currencythoughts.com/2008/08/19/how-the-us-economy-performed-under-democrat-and-republican-presidents/?referer=sphere_related_content/]Currency Blogger[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')uring the forty years from 1961 through 2000, the United States had a Democrat as president half of the time (1961-68, 1977-80, and 1993-2000) and a Republican president for the other twenty years (1969-1976 and 1981-1992). Power was shared, and the switch-overs occurred infrequently, so that it is fair to associate performance with the ruling presidential party. It’s hard for a party to blame its record on the previous incumbent, if they had eight or even twelve years to straighten things out. I chose five vital economic signs to grade each party’s performance: real GDP growth, growth in employment, consumer price inflation, the change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the change in the dollar against the mark and/or euro after 1998.

[jbrovont]

This is jumping on top of a pile-up, but you need 13 samples to have data-set. Using the GDP to talk about the economy is fine if you're talking about the country - so is talking about CPI, but it's also important to look at things like median income, overall unemployment etc.

That said

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')So Nixon is to be blamed for the 1973 oil shocks?

[SuperTico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Duende', '[')b]cbxer55 wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd I will never call b.o. (sniffs under arm) my president.

[shady28]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '[')url=http://currencythoughts.com/2008/08/19/how-the-us-economy-performed-under-democrat-and-republican-presidents/?referer=sphere_related_content/]Currency Blogger[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')uring the forty years from 1961 through 2000, the United States had a Democrat as president half of the time (1961-68, 1977-80, and 1993-2000) and a Republican president for the other twenty years (1969-1976 and 1981-1992). Power was shared, and the switch-overs occurred infrequently, so that it is fair to associate performance with the ruling presidential party. It’s hard for a party to blame its record on the previous incumbent, if they had eight or even twelve years to straighten things out. I chose five vital economic signs to grade each party’s performance: real GDP growth, growth in employment, consumer price inflation, the change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the change in the dollar against the mark and/or euro after 1998.

[Nickel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')'m sorry, the economy runs on its own cycles regardless of who is in office.

[GoghGoner]

Gay marriage is the first example to pop into my mind today. Intolerant environments lead to unproductive business cycles.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')omestic partner registries and civil unions ensconce a separate but equal principle leading to de facto segregation for the nearly 600,000 gay and lesbian couples identified in the census. The absence of marriage recognition for same-sex couples will create financial and logistical liabilities for business leaders, adversely affect employee morale, complicate employment and benefit polices hugely, and makes it harder for companies to relocate staff and their families.

America's most successful companies have paved the way to workplace equality for all of their employees, straight and gay. Same-sex marriage provides the simplest mechanism for making all of America's companies more successful and their gay and lesbian employees more productive.

[Tyler_JC]

1. Should Nixon have let the Israelis get slaughtered by the Syrians and Egyptians?

It was a surprise attack and the Arabs intended to wipe Israel off the map. I fundamentally disagree with your worldview if you think that we shouldn't have helped Israel in that particular conflict.

2. The Shah became the monarch of Iran in 1941. The CIA deposed Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddeq in 1953. Bush Senior was working for a small offshore oil drilling company in the 1950s, not the CIA. I don't understand your timeline.

3. Fiscally responsible treasury? More like a fiscally responsible (and hostile) Congress. The Republicans in Congress fought Clinton's spending proposal and created gridlock in Washington for most of the decade. Neither Clinton nor the GOP Congress could increase spending significantly. It's one-party rule (like the 2002-2006 period) that leads to overspending, not gridlock.

4. The interest rate hikes were orchestrated by the Federal Reserve, not the President of the US.

[GoghGoner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '4'). The interest rate hikes were orchestrated by the Federal Reserve, not the President of the US.

[Serial_Worrier]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '1'). Should Nixon have let the Israelis get slaughtered by the Syrians and Egyptians?

It was a surprise attack and the Arabs intended to wipe Israel off the map. I fundamentally disagree with your worldview if you think that we shouldn't have helped Israel in that particular conflict.

[jbrovont]

Thank you for the correction on the Shah! I'm glad I at least inspired you to go read up on some of these issues.

I'm not sure how to ask this in a non-confrontational way (I'm sorry if it comes off like this), but what is your opinion on the the source of the conflict in the middle east?



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '1'). Should Nixon have let the Israelis get slaughtered by the Syrians and Egyptians?

It was a surprise attack and the Arabs intended to wipe Israel off the map. I fundamentally disagree with your worldview if you think that we shouldn't have helped Israel in that particular conflict.

2. The Shah became the monarch of Iran in 1941. The CIA deposed Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddeq in 1953. Bush Senior was working for a small offshore oil drilling company in the 1950s, not the CIA. I don't understand your timeline.

3. Fiscally responsible treasury? More like a fiscally responsible (and hostile) Congress. The Republicans in Congress fought Clinton's spending proposal and created gridlock in Washington for most of the decade. Neither Clinton nor the GOP Congress could increase spending significantly. It's one-party rule (like the 2002-2006 period) that leads to overspending, not gridlock.

4. The interest rate hikes were orchestrated by the Federal Reserve, not the President of the US.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '.')..
Obama can't screw it up any worse than Bush, can he?

[Quinny]

Results are purely coincidence. mmmmm!


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '.')..
Obama can't screw it up any worse than Bush, can he?

[Tyler_JC]

The results are not purely coincidence.

A politician can have some influence on either extending a downturn or reviving a weak economy.

But this influence is FAR more limited than most people assume.

Building infrastructure only yields dividends long after the project has begun. The US interstate highway system took decades to complete.

It would be very difficult to separate out the interstate highway system from the rest of the economy in order to isolate its influence.

Let's look just at the past 16 years.



When Clinton took office, the savings rate was 6-7%. Currently the savings rate is less than 0%. We are spending more than we are earning.

When you convert savings into consumption, you boost GDP in the short term. Some of the economic growth that has occurred over the past 16 years must be attributed to the fall in savings. This was an extremely important shift in consumption patterns that doesn't have much to do with whether the President has a "D" or an "R" on his name tag.

[TommyJefferson]

Arguing whether democrats are better than republicans is like arguing whether Stalin was better than Mao.

It's a total waste of time.