[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '
')Planty's petro-state is going bankrupt? What will he do then?

[ROCKMAN]

TEXAS GOING BANKRUPT IN 4 MORE YEARS DO TO LOW OIL PRICES??? As of the latest numbers Texas was collecting $56 million per year just from the oil production tax. And that’s with oil priced at $30/bbl. That doesn't include the production taxes on NG or lignite. It also doesn't include the corporate taxes the oil patch pays to the state nor the fees collected for oil patch activities. It also doesn't include the $millions collected by individual counties as ad valorem taxes. And all this income is the result of the state and county govts investing exactly $0.00 in these activities.

Of course this revenue stream is lower than had been projected 18 months ago. But it’s still a sh*t load of money the state has to do nothing to receive than to cash the checks. As far meeting future budget demands the state still has about $10 BILLION in its “rainy day” fund that was built up thanks to the surge in oil/NG taxes it has received in the last decade.

I think someone if a bit off their meds if they feel this represent a potential bankruptcy. lol.

[Pops]

Saw this at Euan Mearn's blog.
A different take on cost, showing total reserves for each type..
Most like this show rate of flow for each type.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')oil above $60-$70/barrel kills the economy

[ROCKMAN]

ennui/pstarr - I don’t really want to interfere with your pissing contest. lol. But would ask for more specifics. For instance:” That's a figure you're pulling out of your ass. The economy can survive on $100-200 oil.” Of course there would be survivors…just as there were some Jews, gypsies, etc. that survived the Nazi concentration camps. There are economies today that are still struggling even with $30/bbl oil. And obviously there would be a great many more struggling at much higher oil prices. But even at those prices some economies will “survive”.

I think we all enjoy your lively debates…they do add to the value of this site IMHO. But it would help if such non-descript terms as “surviving”, “killing” economies, etc. were replaced with more specific metrics. There’s no clear definition of what a “surviving” or “killed” economy looks like. Thus they can mean anything anyone wants them to mean. I do appreciate the difficulty in quantifying your points but I think most here would allow a good bit of latitude in such efforts.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'e')nnui/pstarr - I don’t really want to interfere with your pissing contest. lol. But would ask for more specifics. For instance:” That's a figure you're pulling out of your ass. The economy can survive on $100-200 oil.” Of course there would be survivors…just as there were some Jews, gypsies, etc. that survived the Nazi concentration camps. There are economies today that are still struggling even with $30/bbl oil. And obviously there would be a great many more struggling at much higher oil prices. But even at those prices some economies will “survive”.

I think we all enjoy your lively debates…they do add to the value of this site IMHO. But it would help if such non-descript terms as “surviving”, “killing” economies, etc. were replaced with more specific metrics. There’s no clear definition of what a “surviving” or “killed” economy looks like. Thus they can mean anything anyone wants them to mean. I do appreciate the difficulty in quantifying your points but I think most here would allow a good bit of latitude in such efforts.

[sparky]

.
I'm thinking that while the absolute oil price is important , the real problem is the rate of change of the price .
Ultimately the oil producers recycle the money they get by spending it with their customers ,
either directly or as part of a flow from economies to economies .

any rapid change do not allow those adjustment to take place in a timely manner .
The net result is it create gluts or scarcity of income which must be patched up with monetary someraults

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Personally I classify a 'surviving economy' as one where there is full employment of everyone seeking a job

[Revi]

I think the glut will end pretty quickly. The reason is that I have a few friends who were antique dealers and just went out of business. They put their prices down to 25% off, and then 50% and then sent everything to auction. Is it possible that we are getting a 50% off going out of business sale? Seriously, when there is no incentive for making a product then people stop making it. Who is going to make high sulphur crude in North Dakota and have to spend 50 cents a barrel just to get rid of it?

Here is the OPEC peak:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-except-iran-has-peaked/

[ROCKMAN]

T - "A 'Killed' economy to me is where the growth rate is not sufficient to keep everyone who wants a job employed." I can accept that definition but it also means that the US has been "killed" a number of times over the last half century or so. Given that track record it's sure to be "killed" again in the future. The question is then whether there will be more resurrections as there have been in the past. Of course someone might want to argue about the definition of “full employment” but I'll leave that with them: some might argue that the US economy is currently “dead” despite the improvements we’ve seen in the unemployment numbers in recent years.

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - Exactly. My company is sitting on a few hundred $million in capex ready to go. But have little interest in drilling: our focus is on buying producing reserves from distressed companies. Why drill when you can buy proven reserves for less than it would cost to find new reserves especially when out take the exploration risk factor into account. We also have auctions for oil/NG producing wells. And they are getting more frequent these days.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think the glut will end pretty quickly. The reason is that I have a few friends who were antique dealers and just went out of business. They put their prices down to 25% off, and then 50% and then sent everything to auction. Is it possible that we are getting a 50% off going out of business sale? Seriously, when there is no incentive for making a product then people stop making it. Who is going to make high sulphur crude in North Dakota and have to spend 50 cents a barrel just to get rid of it?

Here is the OPEC peak:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-except-iran-has-peaked/

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think the glut will end pretty quickly. The reason is that I have a few friends who were antique dealers and just went out of business.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Not a bad piece of writing, but I feel compelled to point out that even before sanctions while prices were sky high and Iran was pumping just as fast as they could they didn't come very close to their 1970's peak.

[sparky]

.
Something to keep in mind is the increasing internal consumption of exporters ,
the price is for crude traded on the international market ,

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?p ... ph=exports

It would be interesting to get up to date numbers , I've found it rather difficult

the money value is for 2014 , it isn't very clear , crudes have a rather variable price

Below are the 15 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of crude oil during 2014:

Saudi Arabia: US$268.2 billion (18.5% of total crude oil exports)
Russia: $152.6 billion (10.5%)
United Arab Emirates: $98 billion (6.8%)
Canada: $88.1 billion (6.1%)
Iraq: $84.4 billion (5.8%)
Nigeria: $76.2 billion (5.3%)
Kuwait: $69.3 billion (4.8%)
Angola: $61.2 billion (4.2%)
Kazakhstan: $53.6 billion (3.7%)
Venezuela: $53.3 billion (3.7%)
Norway: $44.2 billion (3%)
Iran: $41.3 billion (2.8%)
Mexico: $36.2 billion (2.5%)
Oman: $34.8 billion (2.4%)
United Kingdom: $29 billion (2%)

[sparky]

.
from the OPEC site
https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_fi ... SB2014.pdf

those are not quite as accurate as the 5 digits would indicate , some of the oil is re-exported ,
some is stored under a variety of legal definitions and some is even used during the transport

Total world

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
40,200 41,032 40,444 41,107 39,830

for memory , the EIA give their numbers as more than 40,000 for 2004 2005 2006
but again they might not count the same barrels , still it's an indication
there is no increase in imports but an excess of crude available for export

the price drop is not because there is so much more crude ,
it's just a few percent above demand from the importers , which is pretty soft

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'I')ran wasn't pumping as fast as they could, they were pumping as much as they choose to, with the infrastructure they were willing to invest in. Estimates from the EIA analysts on what they figure will happen as sanctions come off, and while it isn't back to the old peak, depending on future investment if can certainly get back there.



http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=24592

[ROCKMAN]

T - And something to remember about future Iranian oil production: while their rate may have dropped once the sanctions kicked in: by you chart they produced over 5.5 BILLION BBLS of oil since then. I have no idea how much proved producing oil reserves the Iranians had in 2011 or have today...I don't think anyone has credible numbers. But one thing is certain: they have 5.5 billion bbls less proved producing reserves today then they had 4.5 years ago.