[Ayoob_Reloaded]

I don't see how what I described would be slow. Rather, it's immediate, continuous, and progressive. The physical shortages are one thing, but the SOCIAL implications of this are... mindblowing.

I simply cannot forecast what will happen to human society when we are faced with an absolute shortage, and the rich get what they can afford and the poor get nothing. This hasn't happened here in the US for a long time and we're not used to telling huge swaths of society that they're screwed. People will vote for a ham sandwich at that point if they have none, and other people will guard their ham sandwiches fiercely.

Really.

Imagine what will happen the first time you call in to work and say, Bob, um, I can't make it in today. There's no gas at the gas station, and I don't have enough to make it to the office and back.

Bob says we need you today. We have X number of people out, and we have work to do. We're lucky enough to have jobs at all at this point... you need to be here. Walk to a gas station and fill up a can. You walk to the other station and see a line around the block... no way you're going to get gas. Um, Bob, I can't get any gas. It's not happening today.

Well ride your bike here. Get here somehow, we need you here, or we need somebody else here.

Your neighbors have a couple drums of gas in their yard, they're driving to work and they have a contract with a commercial supplier to bring so many gallons to their house. You knock on the door.

Hey Jim, how you doing? Oh, the gas can? Yeah, I need a couple gallons. Can you help me out? $25 a gallon? You gotta be kidding me. No, I can't get it anywhere else, and I'm going to lose my job if I don't get to work today. Come on, you can't be serious. Look Jim, we're neighbors, our kids go to school together, I need to make my house payment or I'm going to lose my house. Help me out.

See, that's the point at which it really really matters. Until then it's an inconvenience, it's a little problematic, it's a pain in the ass. Wait til the worm turns and you need something or you're going to lose something important. When that happens, you need to reassess your priorities.

But I digress. Because Jim and Bob are just on the CUSP of the impending problems. It's going to get nothing but worse for the rest of their natural lives, and it's going to be worse for their kids than it is for them, and that cycle will repeat itself for the remainder of human history. The next year is going to come and bring a whole new raft of shortages, and sooner or later both Jim and Bob are going to realize what this means. The cooperation between neighbors will take on a new dimension. Is this guy going to make it or not? If it looks like your neighbor is going to make it, you help him out. If not, well, he wasn't going to make it anyway. And there will be another, tougher selection coming along very soon anyway.

[PenultimateManStanding]

What's going to happen? That's what we all want to know. Ayoob, you offered a fictional account of a guy who desperately needs to get to work. Let me offer my own speculations. Will we face shortages of gas or rather very expensive but available gas at the start of the crisis? I guess the latter. People will be pissed and want to play the blame game. The tendency of the public will be to put the blame on the Oil Companies. But the American powers that be are in close cooperation with Big Business and own the Media Interests. Or maybe I should say that the Media Interests are part of the powers that be. They will sing the song that the Feds want them to sing and the public will go along with what the media spin is. And the villian will be the governments of the countries that won't take our paper for their oil. With Death and Starvation breathing down their necks, the American People, so favored by Fortune in living memory will turn Militaristic with a vengeance. The Collective thought being, 'We are the World's only Superpower - it's Time to Cash In!' Many Governments will allign themselves with the US government, especially when they see us finally take the gloves off and shed the softer sentiments. The only other viable global force is China and they will be dispatched so quick it will make people gasp. Remember, they are playing catch-up in History's Game of Force. They were so fallen from greatness in the 19th century as to make Asian eyes a racial laughing stock. (as an aside, since we know that Chinese genes are rather good for intelligence, it's an interesting question how these very smart people found themselve totally reamed by the West. I suppose they are highly motivated to address these historical wrongs, but the facts on the ground are in their way.) So we get the Chinese out of the picture and the oil is coming here. Still the global trade picture is messed up and the American System must be radically overhauled. The work of the people will have to be Nationalized, i.e. Collectivized and Militarized. Call it a left revolution or a right revolution. Whatever. I don't think early 20th Century Politcal Extremism will measure up to what's coming. This is just speculation of course. It won't be long now before we get to see what really happens.