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Has the SHTF?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby RdSnt » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 18:25:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', 'I') agree with the rest here, that the crap has not hit the fan yet, however it appears that it is definitely inbound. Impact is imminent.


Sure and Leahman is a prime candidate, but they can massage that news. A mushroom cloud blooming over Tehran is not something you can finesse.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby TreeFarmer » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 18:26:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'M')ake a plan and work it.


Best advice given on this thread. Remember the famous line, "son a commie doesn't take a crap witout a plan" or something like that. You always need a plan, for PO, for your life in general. If you don't have a plan you are just adrift and at the mercy of everything.

TF
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby BigTex » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 18:26:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'T')hat does not, however, preclude the possibility that the fat dude has positioned his ass di-rect-dict-ly over the fan.


The thing to worry about is when the Skinny Lady screams.

We have a long way to go to there.


I thought it was when she died from starvation.
:)
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby JPL » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 18:36:04

I know I keep saying this but the shit hit the fan a LONG time ago, somewhere between the moment when we forgot how to farm and the one when we finally forgot how to think - viz our fore-brain's imaginative facility was replaced by TV & the internet.

You look at the disintegrating Artic ice cap - that's one BIG pile of do-doo's.

Un-winnable wars from Vietnam to Iraq - another do-doo spatter-mound.

Population growth - need I say more...

9/11 (sorry guys) - people throwing do-doos back.

PO is yet another do-doo splat-pile. And yes, it's going to be a whole more load of happy do-doo fun...

I dunnow - not trying to make a serious point here but maybe you guys could either jam the fan mechanism or at least stop throwing more s**t at it in persuit of further meaningless fetishes. Just a thought.

JP
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby PrairieMule » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 18:53:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's part of the initial economic contraction process. The serious trouble doesn't start for a few years yet.


I don't agree - I think you're much too relaxed about the time scale.

Riots start at 8 bucks a gallon.


I stand by prediction:Day three of a trucker strike.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby BigTex » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 19:04:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's part of the initial economic contraction process. The serious trouble doesn't start for a few years yet.


I don't agree - I think you're much too relaxed about the time scale.

Riots start at 8 bucks a gallon.


I stand by prediction:Day three of a trucker strike.


PM, what would truckers be striking FOR?

What would be their demands?

From whom?

Right now, company drivers are being paid better than ever.

Independents would not strike because they can never agree on anything and they know they would lose money and it would just kick the higher freight rates during the strike to their larger competitors.

Who would be in a position to meet the truckers' demands?

If there is no entity in position to grant their demands, why would anyone strike?
:)
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby Pops » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 19:04:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he thing to worry about is when the Skinny Lady screams.


I thought it was when she died from starvation.

Now we are just hearing the Fat Lady Sing.

The hard part comes later.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby bromius » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 19:54:16

I think the sh!t has hit the fan, for some people at least (read: folks in Haiti and similar places). The more money you have, the farther away you are from the fan. The poo-in-transit just hasn't reached everyone yet.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby Homesteader » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 19:56:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bromius', 'I') think the sh!t has hit the fan, for some people at least (read: folks in Haiti and similar places). The more money you have, the farther away you are from the fan. The poo-in-transit just hasn't reached everyone yet.


I gotta agree with you. Ask an independent trucker if the shtf, or someone whose home is in foreclosure, etc. . .
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby gollum » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 20:37:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'D')on't be silly people. This isn't even close. It's just turbulence; turbulence and volitility we've been talking about for months now.

It's part of the initial economic contraction process. The serious trouble doesn't start for a few years yet.

Relax. :)


I agree, unless we do bomb Iran, than all bets are off
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 20:41:11

Not yet. But it is a great weekend to go shopping for that first, or second bicycle!

Image
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby syrac818 » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 20:55:52

I think we'll see a little pullback in oil. A 13% rise in two days based on a Morgan Stanley prediction and dollar devaluation?

However we will test and eventually break these price levels. It's wild out there.

There's so much money to be made in these times. I'm always a little surprised why there isn't a section on here where we can just brag about how much cash we've raked in on this. Instead it's just another rant about doom that is sure to be upon us. The doom that was sure to be upon us since I arrived here in 2004.

So many posts about how people are feeling the economic effects peak oil or they are having trouble feeding their family and how it's the early stages of it all..... I kind of feel bad for you, and I kind of want to slap the shit out of you. Knowledge is opportunity, and for those who have been peak oil aware for the past 3, 4, 5+ years you've had <b> so much</b> opportunity.

The world will go on people. This <i>is</i> life at $130/barrel oil - we are at the price point that so many feared would bring about the ultimate economic apocalypse.... and here we are.

I'm not saying it'll all progress smoothly. I'm just saying it's not black and white. It's not the suburban piggish, greedy, American lifestyle or hordes of starving mobs. There's a lot of gray area in there - and a lot of room to adapt, manuever and profit. The wave is coming, no question, but you got to move with it.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 21:02:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'N')ot yet. But it is a great weekend to go shopping for that first, or second bicycle!

Image


Very good suggestion. Myself, I´m getting tomorrow more ammo (9mm and .22) What a Friday! we had:
-Dow falls 394.64
-U S unemployment rate jumped the most in 22 years.
-Oil prices spiked to new record.
Can´t wait for Monday!
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw

You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby some_guy282 » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 22:03:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I')f there is no entity in position to grant their demands, why would anyone strike?


Just to play devil's advocate - maybe they'd do it for the same reasons most Americans seem to do things these days. A combination of ignorance and stupidity.

The American public is screaming for the government to do something - anything - because they're under the mistaken impression the government is some kind of all powerful entity. I've heard a bit about the truckers being a very independent group of people, but from the little I've seen in mainstream news reports (for what they're worth) of truckers complaining about high diesel prices, they're screaming that the government has to do "something." Increase the price of gasoline enough, along with the levels of fear and anger and I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that truckers will strike out of desperation to save their lifestyle, and make demands of some group (probably the government) that is incapable of meeting their demands.
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche

Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine

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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby BigTex » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 22:08:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('some_guy282', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I')f there is no entity in position to grant their demands, why would anyone strike?


Just to play devil's advocate - maybe they'd do it for the same reasons most Americans seem to do things these days. A combination of ignorance and stupidity.

The American public is screaming for the government to do something - anything - because they're under the mistaken impression the government is some kind of all powerful entity. I've heard a bit about the truckers being a very independent group of people, but from the little I've seen in mainstream news reports (for what they're worth) of truckers complaining about high diesel prices, they're screaming that the government has to do "something." Increase the price of gasoline enough, along with the levels of fear and anger and I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that truckers will strike out of desperation to save their lifestyle, and make demands of some group (probably the government) that is incapable of meeting their demands.


If there was something that could be done for them I would love to see it done. Truckers are hardworking and under-appreciated people.

What I don't understand is why the truckers aren't just passing along the higher fuel cost to their customers in the form of a fuel surcharge. A lot of freight contracts have the fuel surcharge based simply upon a formula that uses the average price of diesel above a certain level to calculate it.
:)
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby dutchcyclist » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 08:24:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I')ts a large bump, but it isn't SHTF. I'm watching for mass unemployment for i declare doom.


You mean something like this?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080606/economy.html?.v=14
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby some_guy282 » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 08:28:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'W')hat I don't understand is why the truckers aren't just passing along the higher fuel cost to their customers in the form of a fuel surcharge. A lot of freight contracts have the fuel surcharge based simply upon a formula that uses the average price of diesel above a certain level to calculate it.


That's a good question. Seems that would be the logical thing for them to do. But of course, if we all behaved logically and rationally we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with...
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche

Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine

History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 09:41:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'N')o, this is not "TSHTF".

That does not, however, preclude the possibility that the fat dude has positioned his ass di-rect-dict-ly over the fan.


Ssoooo......when you tell the sycophant brigade to meet up because of TSHTF you are just jerking their chain? Or do you tell the truth over here and just spoon feed the bs to them for fun and profit?

Matt Says Meet Up While You Can!

Stress levels been a little high lately, what with disputes with random bloggers?

Matt Vs Survival Acres Bloggers!

Myself, staying on topic, I'm amazed that anyone who was around and watched the 70's unfold thinks that what is happening is any different than what has happened during other oil price shock led recessions.

Economics in action folks, the results of millions of individual solutions to crude cost, as well as capital flowing towards solutions it deems necessary ( Volt, Clarity, transition of the transport mix effecting manufacturers, hybrids in general, the reintroduction of EV's, anyone seen the big windfarm out near Salina, KS? One year old and the thing is miles long already ) and presto...the energy and transport world of tomorrow sure ain't gonna be the energy and transport world of today. And it didn't even require one of Hirsch's silly triangles!! Just a reasonable price for crude.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby allenwrench » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 10:03:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FLFireman', 'O')il surges $11 to record $138
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/06/news/ec ... tm?cnn=yes

Dow's 400-point plunge at market's close is year's biggest loss after weak jobs data and oil-price surge.
http://www.cnn.com/

Fill up today, you might beat the increase. Look for everything in the stores to go up too!

You think this is a bump in the road, or is this the SHingTF


This is nothing.

You will know when TEOTWAK arrives. No, we are not there yet.

There will be many signposts such as...widespread US riots, never ending gas rations or gas just unavailable, commercial airlines have shut down, widespread unemployment, people going hungry from food shortages, trucks having trouble making deliveries to Walmart do to lack of diesel, widespread power outages, people freezing to death because of heating oil, electric and NG shortages, , breakdown in local and national gov services, gold and silver in the stratosphere and the like.

And these signposts are just the beginning of the end. We will look back at these 'inconveniences' as the good old days more than likely once TEOTWAK matures.

Now, I don't have a crystal ball and life can also change without much warning if a world wide war erupts to grab the last remaining resources by any means necessary. But more than likely it will be a slow to moderate deterioration in our world with some warning signs.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby allenwrench » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 10:07:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's part of the initial economic contraction process. The serious trouble doesn't start for a few years yet.


I don't agree - I think you're much too relaxed about the time scale.

Riots start at 8 bucks a gallon.


I stand by prediction:Day three of a trucker strike.


PM, what would truckers be striking FOR?

What would be their demands?

From whom?

Right now, company drivers are being paid better than ever.

Independents would not strike because they can never agree on anything and they know they would lose money and it would just kick the higher freight rates during the strike to their larger competitors.

Who would be in a position to meet the truckers' demands?

If there is no entity in position to grant their demands, why would anyone strike?


Right, independents will go under and the trucking companies will just tack the $$ to raise the rate.
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