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Growth=Death or Growth=Life?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Growth=Death or Growth=Life?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 01 Feb 2005, 06:33:39

Generally, the discussion here is focused on intervals of time like years and decades, which are just instants in cosmological terms. But let's widen our scope, just for a moment. Imagine the earth and humankind 1,000 years from now, or 10,000 years from now, or a million years from now.

I think a lot depends on what you see. It is often said here that: "Even if we overcome peak oil with some breakthrough, that will just make the inevitable crash more severe." In other words, growth per se is actually bad, and in fact deadly. Growth = Death. Growth must be stopped.

But what if we look at the earth as a sort of cosmic egg, from which life (and humans) emerged? Yes, we are growing, but that is to be expected because we are a young, living thing. If your child was not growing, you would be very upset. You wouldn't say: "Oh thank goodness, if he grew anymore, it would only make his inevitable collapse more severe." You understand: when things stop growing, they start dying. So that's the other way to look at it: Growth = Life.

It may be that we are truly confined to the earth. Another possibility is that we will confine ourselves to the earth due to unfounded fears. It reminds me of Christopher Columbus. On his ship the outcome was very uncertain. I picture anti-growth advocates like the fearful sailors on his ship. "We're going to die. We shouldn't even be out here, if we don't even know whether there's land to reach." There's also a strain of the "Tower of Babel" in their doctrine. Or even a quasi-Christian approach, where the "die-off" plays the role of hell in scaring non-believers into accepting the teachings of the church fathers. The post-peak period will be the Last Judgment, where we humans are punished for our grave sins -- stealing the apple, building the tower, grandiosely dreaming that we could touch the stars, or aspire to be like gods. It's kind of ironic that peak oil non-believers are called "flat-earthers", since it was the flat-earthers who were the religious reactionaries, people like the scared sailors on Columbus's ship. Indeed, if you think about it, there's a nice symmetry between "flat earth" thinking and "finite earth" thinking.

If growth=death, then indeed, the party is over. We have passed our nadir. We have nothing to look forward to except devolution, hard-scabble living, societal regression and decay. Science and technology will not advance in any useful way (i.e. any way relevant to energy). Money will be unmasked as the pied piper of growth, and solemnly banished. Finally, someday, a cosmic event will destroy the earth, and that will be the end of it. That is the destiny which the anti-growth movement is offering. That's it. :(

I guess it all boils down to this: Are we a young life form, or an old life form? Maybe peak oil is just a tough time, like puberty. The peak oilers would seem to say that PO marks middle age. We've gone through our growth spurt, and must now mature, shrink and die. "We've got to powerdown" is just another way to say "It's better to die gracefully."

It's funny. If the peak oilers packaged their agenda in a different way, I would immediately agree with it. I.e.: if they said growth needed to be stabilized until we made the transition to extra-planetary growth. I'm very interested in experiments like Biosphere II which attempt to achieve steady-state, perfectly cyclical, waste-free life. There's a lot of potential synergy there.

But that's not how they do it. They come at you aggressively like Jehovah's Witnesses. They've got a pamphlet with a disaster on the cover, and a picture inside of the comparatively comfy peasant lifestyle you will live while all the non-believers get their comeuppance in the "die-off" hell.

I wish we could strike a happy medium... Isn't there a way to combine concern about energy and resources with a more optimistic, pro-growth view of the long-run?
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Re: Growth=Death or Growth=Life?

Unread postby Taskforce_Unity » Tue 01 Feb 2005, 08:20:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')I wish we could strike a happy medium... Isn't there a way to combine concern about energy and resources with a more optimistic, pro-growth view of the long-run?


If people would suddenly become more self aware of their environment, their world and the effects of their actions on this world. With the will to do something about it. Instead of accepting the lullabies of our current leaders, televisions, newspapers and other crap.

the answer would be yes,

i do not hold this hope though. I have trust in a very small amount of people. The majority is not going to change. At least thats what i think.
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Unread postby MikeB » Tue 01 Feb 2005, 08:37:55

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Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 01 Feb 2005, 11:43:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MikeB', 'T')he problem with such analogies is that they're just plain false. They're based on what Richard Dawkins calls "Bad poetic science," not on data.


Hi Mike,

Personally, I like bad poetic science. Marshall McLuhan and Jean Baudrillard are two of my favorite authors, and they both write nothing but bad poetic science! :lol:

Anyway, science and data can't foretell our destiny, so the clash in visions of the future will have to be handled with the only tools left: rhetoric and plain ol' brainwashing.

We can't really expect "good poetic science" to referee the fight between: "Faith in Science" vs. "No Faith in Science". "Good poetic science" would be objective, and might judge "No Faith in Science" to be the winner! 8O
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Unread postby MikeB » Tue 01 Feb 2005, 12:34:02

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Unread postby pea-jay » Tue 01 Feb 2005, 12:50:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f your child was not growing, you would be very upset.


Yes, but if my child was unable to stop growing I would be similarly upset. It happens in rare cases you find certain individuals that for some hormonal reason are incable of stopping growing after adolecence. They keep growing until their bodies organs become too small to function correctly. These giants rarely live past their 30's. Nature sets limits to growth.

As to the big picture question I am more torn. From the purely natural perspective we have grown past our limits and thats, that. We have had our fun in the sun and now its time to realize that peak oil represents middle age and soon we will begin the twilight and death of our civilization. Thus the growth=death arguement

Now I realize thats a little depressing to think along those lines that we will mindlessly try and grow until we can go no further. Surely we can retain trappings of modern civilization, or maybe even find a solution that lets us avoid the inevitable. Thus we would be viewing the problem we are facing as more of a challenge we need to solve before moving to the next level in our civilization, kind of like a hurdle so to speak. We faced challenges in the past and assuming we solve this we will face another one and so on. Thus growth would be represented by life. To grow is to live and any thing short of that we would be selling ourselves short.

But where would it stop? Eventually we will run out of habitat here (earth) and will be pushed to the other planets, then the other solar systems. It seems far fetched but given a growth rate, technology and a few billion years we will be making a serious play on this galaxy...

My problem continues to be how to reconcile unlimited growth in a limited system. Unfortunately I fail to see how it can be accomplished.
UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
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Unread postby Kingcoal » Tue 01 Feb 2005, 13:00:19

Very well put in a nutshell, Mr. Denver, it put me on a "Rocky Mountain High." :) Every once in a while a light of reason pops up above the usual dimwitted rants.

Honestly folks, if you think unaddicting ourselves from oil will save us, keep thinking. To ensure survival of the human race, we have to unaddict ourselves of climatic stability! We rely on stable environmental conditions more than anything else. Oil is just a supercharger for our agricultural based society. Yes, we are just a souped up farming society.

With the supercharger (oil), we've been able to create a scientist incubator. Almost all the scientists that have ever been alive are alive today. Granted, a lot of brainpower is being thrown at frivolous stuff, but we have also created a lot of technology to help us with our "Earth addiction."

I bring this up because there is a naive belief among many Peakers that learning how to "live off the land" will save them. Perhaps not. If a sudden temperature drop engulfs the world, as is predicted in some models, you'll find yourself in need of technology more than ever! Your wood stove will run out of wood and your cupboards will be empty. In such a hellish world, a small group of humanity may be saved in underground communities, living off artificially grown fungus.

Our technology society has the ability to guarantee human existence for millions of years. Producing self-sufficient, off world colonies would be the greatest achievement of our civilization.

We just have to see the real enemy; Earth, and plan accordingly.

My point is that our oil-fueled economy has been a good thing for the time being. Without it, we wouldn’t have produced so many scientists and thus, technology. Technology has always been the savior of mankind. Anyone who thinks anything different hasn’t studied human history.
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Unread postby GD » Wed 02 Feb 2005, 07:22:38

An excellent thread. This is the sort of discussion that more people need to get involved in.

I would love to share my thoughts with you all on this, but I could be here all day (and generate a stupidly large post!). However, I found a book which articulates it all much better than I ever could. Its called The Turning Point: Science, Society and the Rising Culture by Fritjof Capra.
The thesis, I feel, trancends the Growth = Life / Growth = Death problem, and covers a lot of the topics discussed in this forum.
There is a scanned in version available to read online here.
More information about the author can be found on this page.



Image
Fossil-fuel age in the context of cultural evolution.
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Unread postby MikeB » Wed 02 Feb 2005, 07:37:32

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Unread postby Ludi » Wed 02 Feb 2005, 09:14:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e just have to see the real enemy; Earth, and plan accordingly.


I could scarcely disagree more heartily. Science shows us that we are inextricably bound with Earth's natural systems (as we can see our effect on Earth's systems with Global Climate Change). To view Earth as the enemy is to view ourselves as the enemy, which puts us right back square in the middle of destructive Judeo-Christian ideas of the Fall. If we want to take a "rational scientific" view of things we must recognise our place in the Earth's natural systems and act accordingly to our mutual best interests.
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Unread postby GD » Wed 02 Feb 2005, 10:38:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MikeB', 'Y')ou can bring Capra into this if you wish, but I would warn people that his "ideas" have been repeatedly repudiated by scientists.


All right, I’m not claiming quantum mechanics is equivalent to eastern philosophy (as is probably in Capra’s The Tao of Physics – but I’ve not read it), but I thought his opinions (in The Turning Point) on economics, the obsession with growth and need for a paradigm shift, hit the nail on the head (without thinking magically).

I think that the paradigm shift once taken place doesn't necessarily mean that growth = death OR that "the party's over" in a post PO world. What we will have compared to pre-industrial societies is all the important lessons that we have learned during the fossil fuel age plus highly evolved (efficient) renewable energy technology, and the recognition that industry would have an optimum scale to fit.
We will be a more mature human race that lives in harmony with the planet. (Mike, perhaps I should've just said this instead of quoting Capra? I might also take a look at Shermer.)

And the possibility that we may one day take to the stars could well be there if we should master nuclear fusion...
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Unread postby MikeB » Wed 02 Feb 2005, 11:01:16

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Unread postby PhilBiker » Wed 02 Feb 2005, 16:45:44

I didn't read the above posts because the concept is not this complicated.....

The strange dichotomy between growth/life and growth/death is most easily understood in the basic boilogical concepts of bloom and overshoot.
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 02 Feb 2005, 20:45:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MikeB', 'Y')ou're right about the Tao of Physics, which I read when it came out and was quite taken by: His comparison turns out to be a bad one, based more on metaphor than science: "bad poetic science," Richard Dawkins calls it.


Who says metaphor is inferior to science? Richard Dawkins may think it is, but that doesn't prove anything. When I read Dawkins, he strikes me as almost a rationalist anti-religion fanatic. His view is that scientists should be calling all the shots in our society, and I think that is elitist and contrary to the interests of democracy. If you'd like to read someone with a contrary view of the role of science in our society, try Feyerabend.
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Unread postby arocoun » Wed 02 Feb 2005, 23:27:23

Growth =/= Life

Things grow, but only to an extent. Individuals grow to maturity. Groups grow to carrying capacity. The only balance which works is sustainability. Only things with sustainability can lead to long-term happiness.

There are three things in the world that grow beyond their bounds, eventually killing themselves and everything around them: Viruses, imperialist societies, and cancer. Do you really wish to be one of these?
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Unread postby MikeB » Thu 03 Feb 2005, 01:33:55

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Unread postby JohnDenver » Thu 03 Feb 2005, 06:36:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MikeB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho says metaphor is inferior to science? Richard Dawkins may think it is, but that doesn't prove anything. When I read Dawkins, he strikes me as almost a rationalist anti-religion fanatic.


Dawkins point is that too many people confuse metaphors with science. Just because two things are alike in some way doesn't mean they are alike in all ways. Metaphors are for art. They are not for discovering how the world works.


Okay, but how about the metaphor we see so often here? I.e.: Humans are to the earth what multiplying yeast are to a jar. That would seem to be a metaphor masquerading as science. After all, science and data cannot rule out the possibility that humans may grow beyond the earth someday. The jar may be a bad metaphor. Science simply cannot predict what will happen to human beings thousands of years into the future. Only religion can do that. In the long run, do we have limits or not? The yeast metaphor tries to settle that religious question by just assuming that we do. Isn't that pseudo-science?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso: I don't know that I've ever heard Dawkins say "scientists should call all the shots in society." As for his tough stance for rationalism and against religion: your tone is obviously hostile to it, but that's exactly why I like Dawkins.


Consider the example of creationism vs. evolution. According to Dawkins and those who believe in the superiority of science, children should be taught evolution. Personally, I believe it should be left up to the democratic process. If a community of people want to believe the metaphor in the Bible, and teach their children to believe it, I think that's fine. It's a democracy -- live and let live. I don't like the idea of a minority of experts dictating to people how they should think. That's the imperialistic face of science -- science which which wants to hush up dissent.

That doesn't mean I'm anti-science. I prefer it as my own personal worldview, and I teach my children the same way. But that doesn't mean it is superior to metaphor. To say that, you'd have to say what it is superior for. What is science superior for? Raping nature, some would say. If you're talking about living in harmony with nature, the old mythic /cyclic views of tribal man would seem to be superior.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')cience is a gift to us all. I don't understand people's hostility to it.


If people are truly confined to the earth, then science is just a cosmic joke. Science is what allowed us to grow out of control in the first place. But since we can't escape, all that growth and progress was just a vain delusion. Science led us astray, and we should have stayed at the level of mythic/cyclic man because that is the natural order, and the stage we are inevitably headed back to. If man is meant, from the beginning, to keep his place and respect his limits, then transgressing those limits is a sin, just like it says in the Bible, and just like the flat-earthers told Columbus.
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Unread postby MikeB » Thu 03 Feb 2005, 08:40:44

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Unread postby JohnDenver » Thu 03 Feb 2005, 10:46:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MikeB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')cience simply cannot predict what will happen to human beings thousands of years into the future. Only religion can do that.


I can only speak for Christianity and the Bible, which I have studied extensively. The bible's record of actual prediction is abyssmal.


Sorry Mike, I should've written more clearly. What I meant to say was this: Science simply cannot predict what will happen to human beings thousands of years into the future. Therefore, any doctrine which claims to know categorically what will happen is a form of religion.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he way you despict science is largely a straw man argument., it is anti-everything that isn't science.


Scientists are very opposed to some things which aren't science, like creationism.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's this: producing verifiable, falsifiable and repeatedly testable hypotheses that explain a wide number of data. And if it doesn't work, you go back to the drawing board, and revise.


Okay, but then why are scientists like Dawkins so eager to "educate" reluctant creationists? (And in Dawkins' case to even smear all religion as a diseased "mind virus".) I don't think that's a part of the process you described. I don't think ridiculing religion and pushing your own views onto reluctant people is part of the scientific method per se.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')cience doesn't "hush" up dissent; it thrives on it.

Then why does it fight creationism? I think it's fair to call creationism a form of anti-scientific dissent.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') also have to tell you, some of your sentences just do not make any sense to me:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the long run, do we have limits or not? The yeast metaphor tries to settle that religious question by just assuming that we do. Isn't that pseudo-science?
What, that isn't a scientific question? An empirical question?

Neither science nor experience can answer it conclusively at the present time. So I think, until circumstances change, it is reasonable to classify it with other questions which science and experience can't answer (like: Is there a God? or What happens to you after death?).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he yeast metaphor might be right, but that makes the metaphor a tool of understanding, not an explanation.

Okay. But what if the yeast metaphor is wrong? Then what is it? A tool of misunderstanding? And what are the people who are pushing it?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are principles that guide both the lifecycles of yeasts and of humans that science tries to get at.

That's true. But no experiment with yeast will prove that humans cannot, someday, grow beyond the earth.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f a community of people want to believe the metaphor in the Bible, and teach their children to believe it, I think that's fine. It's a democracy -- live and let live. I don't like the idea of a minority of experts dictating to people how they should think. That's the imperialistic face of science -- science which which wants to hush up dissent.
As an educator, I find this argument specious. People already are allowed to believe what they want.

That's not really saying much. People will believe what they want whether they are allowed to or not.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's the job of science teachers to teach science, not religion.

I agree, but it's the local school board's job to determine whether they want to hire a science teacher or a creationism teacher.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his doesn't mean that human beings are going to accept it. It's clear that's what's happening now, and science once again is having to go on the defensive.

Science isn't being attacked. The offensive that science initiated is being repulsed. That's because science is meddling with parent-child relationships in Christian families, and calling Christian religious beliefs a bunch of garbage. Why don't scientists just leave them alone? Why do they feel this weird need to proselytize?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve always just shaken my head at the irony of it, though: people who don't accept old earth theory have no problem hopping in their fossil-fuel-powered vehicles and driving to their fundie services. People who don't believe in evolution have no problem accepting the newest vaccine for fighting the newest mutation of a disease.

I try to avoid using bigoted terms like "fundie" for religious people. I don't think that's part of the scientific method either.
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Unread postby MikeB » Thu 03 Feb 2005, 14:10:58

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