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Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby Hermes » Mon 04 May 2009, 02:56:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'I') see the post above my last one is a neo-luddite.

Wow. An attack on my character rather than the content of my post. Congratulations.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')You you ever tried living with a village or crops, chap?

Umm... yes, I do right now as a matter of fact, chap.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')If you truly believe that more scientific understanding we gain, the worse off we are why don't you go burn down some schools.

Because I'd be put in jail. Duh. Why am I even answering this question? Why did you even ask it? Isn't it kind of beneath you? Why not offer a counterpoint to what I said instead of flinging this mud at me?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Seems to me like the most violent & backwards cultures & subcultures of those that fear science & instead worship superstition.

Ah yes, the aborigines and their wars and horrific genocidal tendencies... how lucky we are to have risen up above them...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Just because we're babies @ handling the vast power imbued to us by... us, doesn't mean we should just throw it away & go back to living off of wild yams & termites.

Right. Just because we don't know what will happen if we push the big red button doesn't mean we SHOULDN'T push it. Excellent reasoning.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Besides, there was only room for a few dozen million hunter-gatherers in pre-industrial society with flowing streams yada yada yada, probably only about 10 million or less could live that way now. Who decides who's in the 1.3% that gets to keep living & what if people don't want to burn their villages & torch there crops and go back to yams & termites?

Strawman.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Trust me, I honor & respect native peoples

Oh yeah? I just re-read what you wrote three times and I see quite a bit of DISHONORING of native peoples there. Sorry, but I don't think you do.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')our ancestors would be wiped out yet again but those who used their minds to think of the technology to run us out. It's the way the world works.

No - this will be the last gasp of civilization and the technology with comes with it. The last usable energy source to springboard to the next is in its twilight years, with nothing in place to replace it. It's done. It's sticks and stones shortly for humanity, and there will be no returning to this level of technology until geological processes bring fossil fuels and metal ores back up to the surface again in a million or so years.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 04 May 2009, 09:44:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '
')there will be no returning to this level of technology until geological processes bring fossil fuels and metal ores back up to the surface again in a million or so years.


Funny how these topics just recycle themselves year after year. There is another well heeled topic debating whether we are destined to return to the stone age and the general agreement was that salvage would be more than enough to supply the remnants of society with raw materials. It's like, why mine for more iron when you can just hack pieces off the golden gate bridge? The salvage economy is something that will probably last far enough in the future that theorizing beyond it is hardly worth it.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 04 May 2009, 09:51:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', ' ')The salvage economy is something that will probably last far enough in the future that theorizing beyond it is hardly worth it.



Yep. Big chunks of iron should last for thousands of years, even with weathering. We have large metal sculptures from ancient Greece as an example.

And beyond that, as RE has pointed out, you can mine iron oxide (rust) deposits. So we should have iron-age technology for a good long while (10,000 years?). The main limiter to that technology is fuel. The ancients devastated their forests to produce metal objects, and they had a lot more forest to start with than we have.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 04 May 2009, 10:47:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')The main limiter to that technology is fuel. The ancients devastated their forests to produce metal objects, and they had a lot more forest to start with than we have.


I think we'll still have some coal leftover for that, not that I'm thrilled about using it after the climate will have been so devastated by GW, but it beats deforestation.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 04 May 2009, 11:42:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')
I think we'll still have some coal leftover for that, not that I'm thrilled about using it after the climate will have been so devastated by GW, but it beats deforestation.



I'm not entirely convinced much coal mining will be done, because the remaining deposits tend to be pretty deep, I think. Personally, I would never promote coal mining as a profession for anyone. But that doesn't mean people won't be coerced into doing it. :( In the past, people could just pick coal off the surface of the ground.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 04 May 2009, 11:45:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')In the past, people could just pick coal off the surface of the ground.


There will likely still be some coal to pick up off the surface of the ground. The ground will just so happen to be what used to be the tops of mountains :(
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Mon 04 May 2009, 12:14:55

None of the 'Salvage economy' or going back to the stone age would be necessary if we go into space for the resources we need to continue civilized society.

The skeptics will be proved wrong, stellar space resources are vast beyond imagination, space mining and resource extraction is the long term key to mankind's future and survival.

Our own solar system has multiple planets, moons, asteroids and other bodies to mine besides the Earth. The sun emits limitless solar energy, essentially forever in human terms. Also, our solar system is only one star system in the galaxy; a galaxy with an estimated 400 billion other stars. Multiply that figure by 10-100 million galaxies, then calculate the real amount of resources available in space in terms of metal, solar energies from other stars, nuclear fuels, the list goes on and on.

We need to get off our little rock and narrowminded ways of thinking and get out there!
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Mon 04 May 2009, 14:26:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', 'N')one of the 'Salvage economy' or going back to the stone age would be necessary if we go into space for the resources we need to continue civilized society.

The skeptics will be proved wrong, stellar space resources are vast beyond imagination, space mining and resource extraction is the long term key to mankind's future and survival.

Our own solar system has multiple planets, moons, asteroids and other bodies to mine besides the Earth. The sun emits limitless solar energy, essentially forever in human terms. Also, our solar system is only one star system in the galaxy; a galaxy with an estimated 400 billion other stars. Multiply that figure by 10-100 million galaxies, then calculate the real amount of resources available in space in terms of metal, solar energies from other stars, nuclear fuels, the list goes on and on.

We need to get off our little rock and narrowminded ways of thinking and get out there!


And how do you propose getting to these other stars?

Again, the energy requirement (as dictated by physics, not technology) to get to Alpha Centauri in one human lifetime is enormous. I don't think you appreciate the sheer scale of the problem.

The US spent nearly a full point of GDP in the 1960s on NASA. We managed to move the equivalent of a minivan from Earth to the moon, a mere 200,000 miles.

The cost to get to Mars, even under the most optimistic assumptions, is in the trillions.

There is nothing on Mars worth a trillion dollars. I don't care if the planet is covered in Hope Diamonds and Chanel No. 5.

We just can't afford to do it.

What makes you think there is anything in space that could be profitably extracted?
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 04 May 2009, 15:04:36

If we stay on earth, the problems with importing mined material to earth in great quantities is clear. For instance, if we parked Titan next to earth and transferred all the methan over, we are basically going to terraform Earth into Venus in short order if we intend to burn all those hydrocarbons. If we imported the equivalent mass of the earth in minerals from other planets to earth we would be added so much mass to the earth that it would totally screw it up. So only limited mining (for things like He3, platinum, indium, etc...) makes any sense. No matter how you slice it, you can not have infinite growth in a finite system. The earth is our current limit, the universe is the ultimate limit (see Asimov's The Last Question). Everyone must ask themselves, is growth the be all end all of existence? My answer to that is no. Even if we had Star Trek technology, we really would want to exercise some restraint in how extensively we convert the universe to human biomass. The danger of geometric growth will work at all scales if you let it. To me population size is kind of like making a hard drive backup. It's a hedge against disasters, an insurance policy. But few people make a billion hard drive backups. At some point enough is enough. We're covered.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby Narz » Mon 04 May 2009, 17:21:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', 'W')ow. An attack on my character rather than the content of my post. Congratulations.[

Huh? I don't know jack about your character, I was talking about the content of your post.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '
')Umm... yes, I do right now as a matter of fact, chap.

Care to elaborate? I am genueinely curious. Where do you live? What do you eat?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '
')Ah yes, the aborigines and their wars and horrific genocidal tendencies... how lucky we are to have risen up above them...

Actually I was talking about contemporary American & Arab fundamentalists.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '
')Right. Just because we don't know what will happen if we push the big red button doesn't mean we SHOULDN'T push it. Excellent reasoning.

You've lost me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '
')Strawman.
Starwman? What are you kidding? You're saying we should go back to hunter-gatherer lifestyles. To do this wholesale we'd have to see a 98-99% death tool with those who attempted to band together & form villages & farms forciably stopped because inevitably they would end up overpowering their neighbors unless they were.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '
')Oh yeah? I just re-read what you wrote three times and I see quite a bit of DISHONORING of native peoples there. Sorry, but I don't think you do.
Really? Show me where I dishonored them? And which peoples?

The eye sees what it brings to seeing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '
')No - this will be the last gasp of civilization and the technology with comes with it. The last usable energy source to springboard to the next is in its twilight years, with nothing in place to replace it. It's done. It's sticks and stones shortly for humanity, and there will be no returning to this level of technology until geological processes bring fossil fuels and metal ores back up to the surface again in a million or so years.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby Hermes » Mon 04 May 2009, 22:02:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Huh? I don't know jack about your character, I was talking about the content of your post.

Mmhmmm. Sure. "Your clothes are stupid. Hey, why are you getting angry at me? I'm not criticizing YOU - I'm criticizing the clothes."

Sorry, Narz.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Care to elaborate? I am genueinely curious. Where do you live? What do you eat?

I live in a town of less than 2000 pop, raise chickens (30+) and goats (30+) myself, have fruit trees and gardens and eat from all of the above for a portion of my food. Get a further portion of my food from the immediate surrounding community. Am on the road to being able to get ALL our food from our own land and our neighbors. Furthermore I have friends and neighbors here who are professional farmers and am intimately connected with what they're doing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Actually I was talking about contemporary American & Arab fundamentalists.

You said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')the most violent & backwards cultures & subcultures of those that fear science & instead worship superstition

Are American fundamentalists a subculture of "those that fear science & instead worship superstition"? Ah! Or did you mean the first phrase in that sentence to refer to American fundamentalists? How was one to understand that from what you've written? I've just re-read what you wrote and there's nothing in there to make it clear that you were ONLY talking about American fundamentalists and Arabic fundamentalists and not all "backwards" and "superstition worshipping" peoples.

Frankly it strikes me as a tactical retreat on your part, trying to cover up your screwup.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Just because we're babies @ handling the vast power imbued to us by... us, doesn't mean we should just throw it away & go back to living off of wild yams & termites.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '
')Right. Just because we don't know what will happen if we push the big red button doesn't mean we SHOULDN'T push it. Excellent reasoning.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')You've lost me.


This was not a complex statement I made. Please re-read that exchange and see if you can figure out what I was saying there. I believe most others who read it understood what was being said.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Starwman? What are you kidding? You're saying we should go back to hunter-gatherer lifestyles. .....

Yes, a strawman. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man. You took my position - extrapolated a common opinion about one of the effects of said position and then argued against that extrapolated point which I never made in this dialogue. A straw man. Sorry again, Narz.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Really? Show me where I dishonored them? And which peoples?

Well now that you CLAIM that your statements about "backwards ... violent ... superstition worshippers" was ONLY about "contemporary American & Arab fundamentalists" (right...) then of course you weren't dishonoring any indigenous peoples, and what I said is wrong... If indeed you were only guiding those statements towards the people you said you were.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 04 May 2009, 23:02:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '
')Well now that you CLAIM that your statements about "backwards ... violent ... superstition worshippers" was ONLY about "contemporary American & Arab fundamentalists" (right...) then of course you weren't dishonoring any indigenous peoples, and what I said is wrong... If indeed you were only guiding those statements towards the people you said you were.


This is all tangential bullsh*t. The important point Narz made is that the death toll required for the earth to support everyone going Dances with Wolves makes such a suggestion just as useless as suggesting we tractor-beam Titan next to us and suck off the hydrocarbons.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby Hermes » Mon 04 May 2009, 23:21:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')This is all tangential bullsh*t.


Well Mos - I invite you to discuss with Narz directly how unimportant you thought all his other points were. I can only assume he though they were important because he spent the time saying them... and thus I answered.

But to the point you attempted to make:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')The important point Narz made is that the death toll required for the earth to support everyone going Dances with Wolves makes such a suggestion just as useless as suggesting we tractor-beam Titan next to us and suck off the hydrocarbons.


Um, no. A suggestion being really hard doesn't mean it's useless. It just means it's really hard. If you're the sort of person who sees a really hard task as useless then that's something you should probably work through really quickly, what with PEAK OIL happening right now, if you don't mind my making a little suggestion.

And I don't think the people who have "gone native" so to speak over the years would say it's as hard as "tractor-beaming Titan next to us." Really, please... this is ludicrous.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 05 May 2009, 00:25:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '
')Um, no. A suggestion being really hard doesn't mean it's useless.


It is basically intellectual masturbation right now. Make a mental note of your ideals and regroup after Gaia has made its cull to turn lemons into lemonde. Until then, I think all efforts should be devoted towards blunting collapse and allowing as many people to lead happy and contented lives as possible.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', '
')And I don't think the people who have "gone native" so to speak over the years would say it's as hard as "tractor-beaming Titan next to us." Really, please... this is ludicrous.


We're not talking about "some people" going native. "Some people" can do lots of things as long as they remain only some. "Some people" can live in the Hollywood Hills. "Some people" can have a 100+ acre doomstead ranch. We're talking about a universal plan that everyone collectively can pursue without exhausting the world's resources. This problem can not be solved by individually dropping out of society.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby Hermes » Tue 05 May 2009, 01:46:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')It is basically intellectual masturbation right now.


Yep.

This is a side discussion I never had intention of debating in this thread. It's a continuation of the strawman argument Narz brought up and Mos latched on to.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 05 May 2009, 02:44:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'W')e're talking about a universal plan that everyone collectively can pursue without exhausting the world's resources.
There's no way to do that at the current population without imposing a lot of negative crap (I mean like prison planet, hard core Bad Things) on everyone, IMO. The more people on the planet, the less any individual life is worth. It's a terrible situation. We can't socialize our way out of this.
Sure there is, at least based on the basics. It would include crazy, wacky, far-out ideas like streamlined electric automobiles, well insulated homes, passive climate control, more electric, and otherwise, rail, and the worst of 'em all, CFLs, all powered by a mix of renewables and fission! The horror! Based on this I imagine we'll all instead choose zombification, but technically a high standard of living for even 10 billion people is a possibility. ~20k+ miles/year in a couple electric autos, climate control, big TVs, in other words a more efficient version of the American "dream". That said, people will undoubtedly choose the side of the evil undead, since evil will always triumph because good is dumb, so excuse while I head down the street with my arms out looking for brains. It'll be a while. ;)
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 05 May 2009, 09:33:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'S')ure there is



I think there could be (my "plan" is somewhat different from yours), but I don't know if I would go so far as to say "is." We have to factor in cultural inertia. Which is huge. People often choose "zombificaton" rather than change. There's plenty of historical evidence for this. People tend to stick with what's familiar, even if it means death. Change is very difficult. Not impossible, but difficult. And because it is so difficult, I tend to think it won't happen without a great deal of hardship, including likely die-off (over a period of time, not overnight!). But I'm a doomer. :)
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 05 May 2009, 09:37:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
') technically a high standard of living for even 10 billion people is a possibility.


I should have known you'd throw in your 2c. There's room for all viewpoints here but you've got to concede that your above cornucopian claim is by far in the minority here.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 05 May 2009, 12:33:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '
')I think 10 billion is probably overshoot even if we all live as carefully as possible and adhere to permaculture principles, but I agree it's an open question.



I certainly don't agree with yesplease's 10 billion figure. If we were adhering to permaculture principles we would be REDUCING our population, not enlarging it,- you can't have it both ways - you can't say "permaculture principles" and be heading for an enlarged population (but you know that).

But I agree with you, we aren't all doing this, even those of us who are trying to implement these principles are doing a slow and not very great job at it (us hypocrites, I mean :) ), so the likelihood of it happening on a large scale is so small as to be irrelevant.
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Re: Going back to caverns or beyond the stars

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 05 May 2009, 12:49:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'T')he system has too much control of everything.



Yep. The weight of culture is against change.
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