[pup55]

Reuters

They probably mean this. Since the fall, Mastercard has been publishing a weekly report on this topic.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')asterCard Advisors estimates retail gasoline demand based on aggregate sales activity in the MasterCard payments system coupled with estimates for all other payment forms. MasterCard Advisors is a unit of MasterCard Inc.

[joewp]

All that means is they maxxed out on their Mastercards and are now using their Visas.

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'W')ell well, look what Google brings up when you put in April 26, 1999:

Columbine Time Line

Evidently no one felt like driving that week.

[pup55]

Change in unleaded products supplied compared to the previous year:

Clinton Impeachment Feb 12, 1998 -7.69%
Columbine April 20, 1999 -3.6%
Bush v. Gore December 11 2000 -13.5%
NY Attacks, September 11, 2001 -11.11%
2003 US attack on Iraq Mar 20, 2003 -3.9%
Madrid Bombing, Mar 11, 2004 -2.5%
London Bombing July 7, 2005 -6.8%
Katrina Aug 31, 2005 -8.6%
Va Tech Massacre April 16, 2007 -2.75%

Sometimes there is a week or so delay in the data.

Interesting. Takes a pretty big event to get people to quit driving.

[DeepOil]

"A monthly Energy Department report said demand for finished petroleum products dropped 8.5 percent in February from January, and demand for gasoline fell by 6.2 percent. Though some of that drop can be attributed to February's being a shorter month, it still suggests high prices are cutting American's appetite for fuel."

Some of it can be attributed to the short month? How about all of it. Let's see:

9.3mb/day x 31 days in Jan = 288.3
9.3mb/day x 29 days in Feb = 269.7
288.3 x .935 (6.2% less) = 269.56

Even if we use 9.0mb/day

9.0mb/day x 31 days in Jan = 279.0
9.0mb/day x 29 days in Feb = 261.0
279.0 x .935 (6.2% less) = 260.86

Looks like a deceptive article to me! Those who are ignorant of this will believe it to be true. Makes it harder to make your case when they all say demand is dropping!

[Qolio]

Here's a nice pic that was linked in an article at the oil drum:


So there is a drop, even if you calculate the demand Mb/d. But to me it looks like normal seasonal variations, so I don't know what the big deal is.

[DantesPeak]

I haven't been able to figure out exactly what was meant by the statement gasoline demand fell, since the implication is that US demand for oil is falling.

According to the EIA report released yesterday, refiners produced more gasoline in February 2008 than in February 2007 - otherwise know as products supplied.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_c ... mbbl_m.htm

Granted products supplied may not equal actual demand, but if refiners are producing more gasoline then gasoline demand is not causing oil demand to fall. I believe overall demand for oil in the US was higher in 2007 because the weather was considerably colder in February 2007 than 2008. But again, this was not the implication of the widely quoted article.

[Forney2008]

This is definately shoddy journalism at the core. Who do they pay to write and research this stuff anyways? Daniel Yergin?

[AirlinePilot]

Typical denial.

Find a datapoint which supports your cornucopian claim.
Report it totally out of context with some fancy jargon and numbers. Wash rinse repeat.

Those here and at the Oil Drum understand that even with these prices there is little or no demand destruction. Look at that very graph you just posted and observe April/May! Demand is UP over last year!

Most of this is inside even a margin of error right now and that alone should be an alarming indicator that we still do not know the price for gas, or crude, which brings true demand destruction.

[yesplease]

Gasoline production is up due to a drop crude oil reserves yoy, I wonder why they didn't mention this... Not good to show anything that may indicate the US can't buy as much oil on the market? Imports are down, as is distillate production yoy. In terms of demand destruction, it took roughly a year to bring down price after the initial spike, so these sorts of things aren't instantaneous, keeping into account this is uncharted territory.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')NEWSFLASH: FEBRUARY HAS 6.5% FEWER DAYS THAN JANUARY

Concerned scientists noted that there was hope for March to have an increase of 6.9% days to bounce back to normal. April may have suffered the normally expected loss of 3.2% days, while days should increase another 3.3% to match March sometime in May.

One calendarologist noted that, while February's decline was severe, "It was a lot better than last February's 9.7% decline.". He expected the next four years to repeat the pattern, with concern about February, 2009 already brewing in calendarology journals.

[pup55]

We have to wait until the updated data is published, which it is not yet on the EIA website.

However, we had a similar conversation the other day and the analysis showed that the major difference was greatly reduced residual fuel oil, for which natural gas is readily substituted, and also jet fuel, which stands to reason because that is one of the few industries in which usage is down was the airlines.

The residual fuel oil was more than made up for by an increase in natural gas.

So, we will have to wait a few days until Caruso and his crew updates the website.

[phaeryen]

Even if there was a decline in the demand for gasoline of the united states, one has to ask if this amounts to something to a general view of gasoline demand being down. I mean, there are other countries that demand some gasoline besides the united states, even if you yanks forget that from time to time.

The way I figure it, growing demand in China and the other various "economic tigers of the east" more than makes up for whatever demand destruction there is because the economy of the US is slowing down.

Gasoline demand of the united states may be down, or maybe not as other posters have criticized. But gasoline demand of the united states does not equal gasoline demand in general. Gasoline demand is not down. It is up. Im sorry.

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', ' ')It's so ridiculous. When you look at the math, daily usage most have gone up slightly, not down, since the number of days was 6.5% less and the gasoline usage was only 6.2% less.

[TheDude]

They said the drop in demand was from a "A monthly Energy Department report," by which I assume they mean the new Petroleum Supply Monthly, published on Monday. Went looking for some discrepancies between the data there and elsewhere on the EIA site but nothing stood out. Jeff Vail points one out in the TOD article though. Takes a keen eye!

Incidentally, the link for the story itself: Demand falls, supplies rise, oil drops $3 - Oil & energy - msnbc.com

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to the EIA report released yesterday, refiners produced more gasoline in February 2008 than in February 2007 - otherwise know as products supplied.

[TheDude]

DP

[seanarama]

Which report are you getting your numbers from?

Going from the Product Supplied report ...

EIA product supplied

These are the numbers I get ...

January 08 finished motor gasoline: 273,235

Divided by 31 equals 8.81 million barrels per day.

February 08 finished motor gasoline: 256,422
Divided by 29 equals 8.84 million barrels per day.*

I'm not arguing against your case. I'm just asking which EIA page you're pulling your numbers from, because they are different than mine. Using these numbers, per-day gasoline use increased in February.

Or have I got my math wrong? It's early, and that's entirely possible.

* Post adjusted to take 29 days this past February into account. Apparently, it WAS too early for me to do math.

[lawnchair]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seanarama', '
') Divided by 28 equals 9.16 million barrels per day.

Or have I got my math wrong? It's early, and that's entirely possible.

[seanarama]

Dang, that's right! 29 days in this most recent February!

But it still seemed the source numbers he was using were different than mine. Which EIA document did the original numbers come from? Is there a link?

[DeepOil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seanarama', 'D')ang, that's right! 29 days in this most recent February!

But it still seemed the source numbers he was using were different than mine. Which EIA document did the original numbers come from? Is there a link?