[Tikib]

And as I said before image change will likely make the US too dry to grow crops in.

[Strummer]

That's why I said "neo-feudalism", which implies more locally distributed power structures. Just look at Ukraine, a good example of a collapsing failed state. The local oligarchs turned into warlords and the central government does not matter at all in some of the regions. But is there a difference to the common people between being ruled by a central government or a local oligarch and his private army? Not much.

[Keith_McClary]

Ten years ago there were lots of people here expecting imminent doom at the moment of Peak Oil:
planning-for-the-future-f8-2600.html

There was no reason to expect drastic changes in a couple of years, and there still isn't. I expect things to gradually get worse over decades, with historical levels of violence, epidemics and natural disaster.

[ROCKMAN]

Keith - “There was no reason to expect drastic changes in a couple of years, and there still isn't.” And thus the nature of the Internet and 24 hour news cycle: folks jump online several times a day looking for that “meaningful” change. I just reminded Tanada elsewhere that when the inflation adjusted price of oil fell from $106/bbl in 1980 to $30/bbl it took 8 years. And then the price in 1998 rose from $17/bbl in 1998 to $99/bbl in 10 years. And then it fell to $76/bbl in 2010 and then back up to almost $100/bbl 4 years later in 2014.

This time it did slide a lot faster…on a monthly basis. It took 3 years for the AVERAGE PRICE to drop from $106/bbl to $68/bbl. But the 2014 AVERAGE PRICE of oil isn’t the current price. For the first 11 months of 2014 the average crude oil spot price has averaged $99.45/bbl. Now in another 13 months or so we’ll know the average 2015 price for oil.

Everyone gets to make a guess. IMHO guessing the yearly average price is much more telling of the thought processes of our merry band here than the price on 31 December

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'K')eith - “There was no reason to expect drastic changes in a couple of years, and there still isn't.” And thus the nature of the Internet and 24 hour news cycle: folks jump online several times a day looking for that “meaningful” change. I just reminded Tanada elsewhere that when the inflation adjusted price of oil fell from $106/bbl in 1980 to $30/bbl it took 8 years. And then the price in 1998 rose from $17/bbl in 1998 to $99/bbl in 10 years. And then it fell to $76/bbl in 2010 and then back up to almost $100/bbl 4 years later in 2014.

This time it did slide a lot faster…on a monthly basis. It took 3 years for the AVERAGE PRICE to drop from $106/bbl to $68/bbl. But the 2014 AVERAGE PRICE of oil isn’t the current price. For the first 11 months of 2014 the average crude oil spot price has averaged $99.45/bbl. Now in another 13 months or so we’ll know the average 2015 price for oil.

Everyone gets to make a guess. IMHO guessing the yearly average price is much more telling of the thought processes of our merry band here than the price on 31 December

[Guthrum]

Tikib - Relax!! Collapse is a long, slow, drawn out process that takes centuries. With no respect whatsoever to Hollywood movie fantasies, no society ever collapses suddenly on Thursday afternoon over coffee break. Collapse is a process, not an event. So, at 28, you've got years of good cheer ahead - if you don't in the UK, come to Canada. We'll give you a job and after the decades pass, when you're too old to work, we'll put you out on an ice floe - if there are any left. Maybe just feed you to the bears...

[wildbourgman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Guthrum', 'T')ikib - Relax!! Collapse is a long, slow, drawn out process that takes centuries. With no respect whatsoever to Hollywood movie fantasies, no society ever collapses suddenly on Thursday afternoon over coffee break. Collapse is a process, not an event. So, at 28, you've got years of good cheer ahead - if you don't in the UK, come to Canada. We'll give you a job and after the decades pass, when you're too old to work, we'll put you out on an ice floe - if there are any left. Maybe just feed you to the bears...

[Tikib]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Guthrum', 'T')ikib - Relax!! Collapse is a long, slow, drawn out process that takes centuries. With no respect whatsoever to Hollywood movie fantasies, no society ever collapses suddenly on Thursday afternoon over coffee break. Collapse is a process, not an event. So, at 28, you've got years of good cheer ahead - if you don't in the UK, come to Canada. We'll give you a job and after the decades pass, when you're too old to work, we'll put you out on an ice floe - if there are any left. Maybe just feed you to the bears...

[SeaGypsy]

Hey Tiki welcome aboard the best board on the interwebs.
I do have to agree with Pstarr. Unless you have some really deadly terminal disease, you are certainly guilty of counting curses not blessings. Life is still what you make it. Are you really convinced you are going to starve, in two years? That is absurd, you live in one of the richest countries in the world & even when TSHTF there will still be yummy potatoes, with olive oil or butter, wine, beer, cabbages, magic mushrooms, cannabis & pretty girls.

My suggestion, quit the one sided paranoid conspiracy Facebook doom group where you get your extreme negativity. Hang out here where there is always debate & many posters who felt like you at some point.

The ideas you espoused about AGW are right at the fringe of the science. I have spent half my life within 15 degrees lat of the equator & can tell you in the right places it's seriously exquisite, loads of food crops do very nicely & are likely to for a very long time. Two years? You are doing the exact opposite of kidding yourself.

Life is still bloody amazing.

Any of your nut case doomer friends on FB rave on about 'chemtrails'?

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tikib', 'H')i people I am new.

I really wish I had started posting on this forum years ago. I live in the UK and because of the recession and my economic circumstances I don't expect to live more than a couple more years.

I am one of those people that who believes that if we had started transitioning to solar 20 years ago we could have saved part of our civilization.

But as it is I expect the combined effects of depletion and global warming will mean population peaks by about 2018. Halves by 2030 and humans are completely extinct by 2080.

With places like Scandinavia, Iceland, new Zealand and Argentina being the last hold outs.