Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

FBI: U.S. violent crime down by 6% last year

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: FBI: U.S. violent crime down by 6% last year

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 20 Sep 2011, 17:04:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pedantbuster', 'R')eturning to the topic at hand, I think increased gun ownership and concealed carry is
playing a big part in the decline of crime.

Nope. US gun ownership rates have been declining for over three decades.

LINK
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ewer Americans own guns these days, according to a new report that shows a three-decade decline in the percentage of personal and household ownership of pistols and rifles. Using data collected by the federal government, the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, which has been tracking such figures since 1972, determined the percentage of American households that reported having any guns dropped more than 40% from 1977 to 2010. Also, the percentage of Americans who reported personally owning a gun dropped more than 32% from 1985 to 2010.

In 2010, only 32.3% of U.S. households owned guns and only 20.8% of individuals claimed personal gun ownership. The number for women was 9.9%.

In other words, crime isn't decreasing because Americans are arming themselves at a greater rate; in fact Americans are arming themselves at a decreasing rate.

More info on the same survey.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: FBI: U.S. violent crime down by 6% last year

Unread postby ian807 » Tue 20 Sep 2011, 17:23:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')urely a sign of massive societal collapse due to peak oil! :lol:

Surely a sign of cameras everywhere and higher conviction rates, particularly for violent offenders. Also surely a sign that the demographic of 16-40 year olds is shrinking.
User avatar
ian807
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 899
Joined: Mon 03 Nov 2008, 04:00:00

Re: FBI: U.S. violent crime down by 6% last year

Unread postby The Practician » Tue 20 Sep 2011, 18:26:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pedantbuster', 'O')F - NRA says gun ownership is at an all time high, thanks to the Obama administration.
You should look in more than one place for your stats.

http://www.nraila.org/Issues/FactSheets ... &issue=007


You're talkin to a guy who just admitted to having a degree in urban planning here! Having a degree in urban planning is like having a degree in statistical cherry picking to further ones own personal agenda. :mrgreen:
The Practician
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 270
Joined: Wed 20 Jul 2011, 22:08:02

Re: FBI: U.S. violent crime down by 6% last year

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 20 Sep 2011, 20:40:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pedantbuster', 'O')F - NRA says gun ownership is at an all time high, thanks to the Obama administration.
You should look in more than one place for your stats.

http://www.nraila.org/Issues/FactSheets ... &issue=007

Uhhhh, hello? Did you actually read that? It says nothing about rates of gun ownership, it just talks about some numbers. Even if the numbers are correct (which, looking at their references, is in doubt - see comment afterwards), it could mean nothing more than fewer people owning more guns.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]More Guns: There are well over 250 million privately-owned firearms in the U.S., including nearly 100 million handguns and tens of millions of “assault weapons”—the types of firearms that gun control supporters have tried the hardest to get banned5—and the number of firearms typically rises about 4 million per year.6 Annual numbers of new AR-15s, the most popular semi-automatic rifle that gun control supporters call an “assault weapon,” are soaring. In 2008, there were more than 337,000 new AR-15s configured for home defense, competition, training, recreational target practice and hunting.7 NRA-supported Instant Check firearm transactions have increased over 10 percent annually since 2006.8

If you look at their source for the number of guns in the US (reference #6), they use something called Firearms Trace Data. This doesn't even remotely count the total number of guns, all it does is provide stats on the number and type of firearms which were traced and recovered by law enforcement agencies. The top state is Alabama, with 1,710 traces and recoveries last year. After that is Georgia with 140. So, somehow they bizarrely go from numbers less than 2,000 - and most less than 100 - to proclaiming that there are 250 million guns in the US. :lol:

You too, should look at more than one place for your data. And especially when you're looking at the NRA's data you really need to apply close scrutiny! :lol:

A long-running Gallup Poll reflects the decline in gun ownership rates in the US, though to less of a degree than the other survey I linked.

Image
^
And no, the rate did not surge after Obama was elected. The only people buying guns after Obama was elected were people who probably already owned some guns.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia
Top

Re: FBI: U.S. violent crime down by 6% last year

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 20 Sep 2011, 20:44:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Practician', 'Y')ou're talkin to a guy who just admitted to having a degree in urban planning here! Having a degree in urban planning is like having a degree in statistical cherry picking to further ones own personal agenda. :mrgreen:

Following NRA gun "data" is the ultimate in statistical cherry picking to further an agenda!

I didn't even create the data myself, I simply cited a survey which has been done yearly since 1972. :roll: :badgrin: You got a problem with the data, you take your beef to the people who do the survey. Same with the Gallup Poll above.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia
Top

Re: FBI: U.S. violent crime down by 6% last year

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Tue 20 Sep 2011, 21:40:06

I've begun reading a pdf located here ->http://faculty.unlv.edu/mccorkle/Declining%20Violent%20Crime%20Rates%20in%2090s.pdf

The paper really has me thinking about all the factors involved in crime rates and the idea that crime comes in "waves" or "cycles" is actually pretty interesting and isn't as simple as immigrants, economy, laws, politics, but a combination of many things. One piece I found particularly interesting the part about "Political Legitimacy" that is a very good way to put it!

This part sums the pdf up pretty well too!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Crime Waves in Criminology
The more specific impediment to the development of an empirical study of
crime waves is a longstanding tendency by researchers to treat crime waves as
socially constructed epiphenomena, rather than as empirical facts with impor-
tant theoretical and policy implications. This view is exemplified by Erikson’s
(1966) influential study of deviance in the Puritan colonies of Massachusetts
in the seventeenth century. Erikson identifies three “crime waves” during the
first sixty years of settlement: the Antinomian controversy (a challenge to the
community’s religious establishment), the arrival of the Quakers from Penn-
sylvania, and the Salem witch hysteria. But he then argues that all three waves
were not fueled by increases in crime rates—which remained relatively stable
over the six decades—but were instead efforts to shift public attention away
from other problems and create social unity.

Like Erikson, the few researchers who have studied crime waves in contem-
porary America (Fishman 1978, Graber 1980) have most often interpreted
them as social constructs, often emphasizing the generally weak connections
between concern about crime and actual crime rates. For example, Fishman
(1978) argues that crime waves are constructed when the news media devotes
considerable attention to a small number of crimes, encouraging law enforce-
ment agents to bring evidence only of these crimes forward. Relatedly, Beckett
(1997) compares increases in rates of street crime in the 1960s and 1970s to
levels of public concern about crime and to levels of punishment. While she
does not conclude that the increases in crime were imaginary, she nevertheless
concentrates on the weak relationship between actual crime levels and public
fear of crime to argue against the rise in public support for more punitive crime
policies.


*Emphasis Me.
ColossalContrarian
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1374
Joined: Tue 20 Jun 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: FBI: U.S. violent crime down by 6% last year

Unread postby The Practician » Tue 20 Sep 2011, 21:56:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Practician', 'Y')ou're talkin to a guy who just admitted to having a degree in urban planning here! Having a degree in urban planning is like having a degree in statistical cherry picking to further ones own personal agenda. :mrgreen:

Following NRA gun "data" is the ultimate in statistical cherry picking to further an agenda!

I didn't even create the data myself, I simply cited a survey which has been done yearly since 1972. :roll: :badgrin: You got a problem with the data, you take your beef to the people who do the survey. Same with the Gallup Poll above.




I didn't even create the data myself, I simply cited a survey which has been done yearly since 1972. :roll: :badgrin: You got a problem with the data, you take your beef to the people who do the survey. Same with the Gallup Poll above.[/quote]

I actually don't doubt, or particularly care, that the rate of gun ownership in the U.S is down. Its probably true.

What I do doubt is that the crime rate dropping 6% --During 2010, by the way, when things weren't looking quite so grim as they are now-- Is a meaningful indicator of anything peak oil, or negates the threat of a renewed global recession/depression.

"Eurozone debt crisis? Thats nothing to worry about dude, didn't you see that the crime rate went down in the U.S. by 6% last year? Everything's gonna be ok! " :razz:
The Practician
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 270
Joined: Wed 20 Jul 2011, 22:08:02
Top

Previous

Return to North America Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

cron