[Voice_du_More]

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5521#more

There you have it folks! By 2012 we ae most likely looking at 80 mbpd all sources or less. It is time to prepare yourself for the emergence of a world of ever increasing violence, crime and oppression. The darkness is coming now you won't have to wait long and after that light will return to the earth.

You guys all know me so you know I am going to say that this is all prophesied in the Book of Revelation and you can call on Jesus at anytime.

That said, I hope you all well since you at least had the courage to face what was coming honestly and I think that must mean that some grace is being shown to you.

Given these supply numbers and the recent spike there is no way the US gets out of recession for anything but token growth in spurts without oil going well over $150. By this fall more major impacts will be evident.

At times I curse the day I stumbled onto this issue, but then I always prayed for the courage to know the truth.

God bless.

[Quinny]

I'm not disputing what you say, just trying to understand.

Further down the link on TOD it has CERA & IEA figures with much higher peak and later dates. Is the graph a consolodation/average of different forecasts?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Voice_du_More', '[')url]http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5521#more[/url]There you have it folks! By 2012 we ae most likely looking at 80 mbpd all sources or less. --snip-- --snip-- At times I curse the day I stumbled onto this issue, but then I always prayed for the courage to know the truth. God bless.

[TheDude]

Wouldn't call this the curtain call for the show - we'll only know that when production has irrevocably declined for a half year or so, with attendant price shocks which will curb demand, obfuscating things all over again...I've been reading these TOD updates for years now, too, nothing exactly revelatory about this latest.

Here is a graph I made ranking the various forecasters:



The near term peakers are still kicking the business as usual crowd's butts; I'd like to see older forecasts included in here as well, though. Freddy Hutter ranks these in a similar fashion to what's done in this TOD article; it's notable that the winner overall is Duncan and Youngquist's 1999 forecast, which projects a peak in 2008. The cornucopians seem to have moved on to projecting curbed demand, which is a lot surer bet than gushers of new supply.

[Voice_du_More]

Yeah there is always wiggle room until goods stop making it to market I guess. It won't be long now though before the world has to face the fact that 87 mbpd of total liquids was the peak. What scares me is the lengths to which TPTB are willing to go to to keep America glumly humming along toward the cliff.

I talked to a retired guy the other day and he said 'well it has to get better at some point.' I said 'no it does'nt.' to which he replied 'It has to get better at some point.'

This fall will another major flashing light on the road to destruction. We'll see if that one is also ignored.