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Expensive oil = yes Peakoil = no

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Expensive oil = yes Peakoil = no

Unread postby Don_Quichote » Sun 15 May 2005, 05:43:37

Why ?

The Hubbert peak of oil production is about conventional oil.

The real peak of all oil production will never happen...

The Athabasca Oil Sands and the Orinoco Belt will save us.
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Unread postby some_guy282 » Sun 15 May 2005, 05:50:29

Oil sands, we're saved!! Woohoo! :-D :)

Because we all know that oil sands have the same EROEI as light sweet crude pumped out of the ground, right?

Wrong.

Oil sands have been discussed in detail. Search the archives. They may come in handy and help after oil peaks, but they are far from a solution to the problem.
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche

Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine

History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
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Re: Expensive oil = yes Peakoil = no

Unread postby aldente » Sun 15 May 2005, 06:39:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Don_Quichote', '
')The Athabasca Oil Sands and the Orinoco Belt will save us.


Here a picture of Venezuela where the Orinoco Belt actually is to be found. It sure will be the answer and solution to all the energy supply predicaments....

Image
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Unread postby Omnitir » Sun 15 May 2005, 07:42:26

PO must be here and affecting agriculture, because I'm all out of troll food....
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Re: Expensive oil = yes Peakoil = no

Unread postby clv101 » Sun 15 May 2005, 07:53:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Don_Quichote', 'W')hy ?

The Hubbert peak of oil production is about conventional oil.

The real peak of all oil production will never happen...

The Athabasca Oil Sands and the Orinoco Belt will save us.

Unless the rate of production increase from oil sands can exceed the rate of production decrease from conventional oil we can have a peek in production. Looking at the numbers it's clear that oil sands aren't going to exceed around 3 million barrels per day before 2015 - too little too late. The actual reserves aren't important, it's the rate of production we've got to look at.
"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
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Re: Expensive oil = yes Peakoil = no

Unread postby Jack » Sun 15 May 2005, 08:26:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Don_Quichote', 'W')hy ?

The Hubbert peak of oil production is about conventional oil.

The real peak of all oil production will never happen...

The Athabasca Oil Sands and the Orinoco Belt will save us.


No, no, no. It's the spaceships to Jupiter that will save us. Lots of pure methane, unclaimed by anyone, just waiting to be harvested and brought back to Earth.

Numbers? We don't need no stinkin' numbers!
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Unread postby jimmydean » Sun 15 May 2005, 09:25:42

The economic law of diminishing marginal returns is against that idea. It's just too costly to extract with current technology. Our only solution at the moment is conservation.

In Bush's Saturday radio address it's the first time I heard him say "conservation". We can either let the market do that naturally by seeing oil go to $100 or could speed it along with a tax at the pumps.

Conservation by higher taxes on gas at the pumps (short-term) would go a long way to reducing wasteful demand and create more slack. If the U.S. lowered it's consumption by 5mbbl/day and EU followed suit we could in theory push off PO for a while. Also obsoletion of wasteful personel transport such as SUV's ... not something GM or F want to hear about right now though.

Tax revenues from this should be poured into efficient public transportation projects and perhaps tax incentives to buy more fuel efficient vechicles.
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Unread postby gt1370a » Sun 15 May 2005, 10:44:43

CLV101 is right on. It has nothing to do with reserves, EROIE, or economics. It's all about production RATE. There may be a trillion barrels of oil in Colorado shale, but if you can only get out 1 million barrels a day, and conventional oil production is declining by 3% per year (about 2.5 million barrels/day/year), then you have peaked. This is the essence of the concept of peak oil.

The economics then becomes a factor because 1) the price has to be high enough to cause "demand destruction" (make demand match supply) and 2) the price has to be high enough for extraction from shale or tar to be profitable.
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The Newbie Response Syndrome

Unread postby reggieUK » Sun 15 May 2005, 13:02:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Don_Quichote', 'W')hy ?

The Hubbert peak of oil production is about conventional oil.

The real peak of all oil production will never happen...

The Athabasca Oil Sands and the Orinoco Belt will save us.


wow! I used to be you. Mine was nanotechnology though. (Everyone remember?)

No, if we ignore the science for a mo, the simple point is, we are fucked.
At least if you think that the end of consumption and materialism is a bad thing - which I don't.

However, having observed the peak oil thing for two years now, there
is a 'trend of response' with the newly initiated.
Generally, at first the topic of peak oil is ignored as musings from the family nutcase, but then on closer inspection from the listenee by doing a bit of research, the reality of peak oil eventually hits the 'oh shit' gland and that hurts, fear sets in and in comes the 4 reponse syndrome -

one or all of,

1/ 'technology will save us, they'll think of something'
or
2/ 'it's all a conspiracy'
or
3/ 'the oil sands/methates/nano/solar is enough to keep us going' (yours)
or
4/ 'they already have the magic elixir, they just haven't told us yet'

When someone spends a bit of time researching, they'll soon realise
that 1, 2 and 3 are folly and are the Ostrich option but 4 is fear's last
hope.
It's sort of like the aliens will land option (and they just may)

But it's nice to see far more 'anti' peak oil people on the forum as it keeps the rest of us on our toes.
Everyone realise that it's only newbies that are anti - it's a PO rites of passage thing. As I said, I know from experience.

Have you read the two Richard Heinberg books?
They will bring closure, in detail, to any peak oil objections.
They sold me
Also, reading the 'inroduction' at
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.com
will ruin the viewpoint of most 'skeptics'

Can anyone get that link above to light up and work?

Thank ye kindly
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Re: The Newbie Response Syndrome

Unread postby reggieUK » Sun 15 May 2005, 13:06:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('reggieUK', '
')Also, reading the 'inroduction' at
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.com
will ruin the viewpoint of most 'skeptics'

Can anyone get that link above to light up and work?

Thank ye kindly


I guess I did it right! :oops:
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Unread postby clv101 » Sun 15 May 2005, 13:08:10

It's www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net not com.

I think there's another response - yeah I believe you but there's nothing I can do so I'll ignore it.
"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
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Unread postby ArimoDave » Sun 15 May 2005, 13:32:12

Jack the Moderator wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, no, no. It's the spaceships to Jupiter that will save us. Lots of pure methane, unclaimed by anyone, just waiting to be harvested and brought back to Earth.

Numbers? We don't need no stinkin' numbers!


Sorry Jack:

Some of us need numbers. Real hard solid numbers. Good wholesome nutritious numbers.
We feed on the numbers. Those vague meaningless numbers like "Plenty," "Lots," and "Vast"
just leave us empty -- like lettuce. Numbers not backed up with data are like poison to us.

ArimoDave

(P.S. Trolling -- I know, but I couldn't resist.)
I know exactly where we are;
. . . .
don't know where we're going, but no use in being late.
(Mathew Quigley [Tom Selleck])
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Unread postby Jack » Sun 15 May 2005, 13:48:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ArimoDave', 'J')ack the Moderator wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, no, no. It's the spaceships to Jupiter that will save us. Lots of pure methane, unclaimed by anyone, just waiting to be harvested and brought back to Earth.

Numbers? We don't need no stinkin' numbers!


Sorry Jack:

Some of us need numbers. Real hard solid numbers. Good wholesome nutritious numbers.
We feed on the numbers. Those vague meaningless numbers like "Plenty," "Lots," and "Vast"
just leave us empty -- like lettuce. Numbers not backed up with data are like poison to us.

ArimoDave

(P.S. Trolling -- I know, but I couldn't resist.)


:lol: Thank you for a delightful reminder! Now that's the kind of trolling I can enjoy! :-D
Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn! [smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]
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Unread postby Omnitir » Sun 15 May 2005, 17:17:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('reggieUK', '
')wow! I used to be you. Mine was nanotechnology though. (Everyone remember?)

I’m still for nanotechnology. Haven’t been convinced otherwise yet.

There are other options for people’s reaction once the reality of PO sets in. One is the understanding that PO is not a religion like so many seem to treat it, but actually a scientific theory, a theory that is slowly playing out, but with an unpredictable outcome. Looking for possible tech-fix’s, along with considering conservation possibilities, isn’t necessarily a “head buried in the sand” response, just a way of trying to predict the complex variables that comprise the future.

I like the fact that some people choose to look for solutions instead of looking only for problems.

Though posts like Don_Quichote’s OP, without any links, or backup information of any kind, do seem to look more like trolls then certain other optimists posts around here.
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Unread postby smiley » Sun 15 May 2005, 17:52:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')’m still for nanotechnology. Haven’t been convinced otherwise yet.


Did you know that nanotechnology was discovered by the Mayans and the ancient Egyptians independently.

It didn't really save them, did it? 8)
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Unread postby bobcousins » Sun 15 May 2005, 19:34:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')’m still for nanotechnology. Haven’t been convinced otherwise yet.


Did you know that nanotechnology was discovered by the Mayans and the ancient Egyptians independently.

It didn't really save them, did it? 8)


I think you are confusing nanotechnology and pyramids.
It's all downhill from here
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Unread postby Omnitir » Mon 16 May 2005, 05:08:30

Wow, there’s a new one: nanobots built the pyramids! :lol:
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Re: Expensive oil = yes Peakoil = no

Unread postby FoxV » Mon 16 May 2005, 10:49:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Don_Quichote', 'T')he Athabasca Oil Sands and the Orinoco Belt will save us.


We typically use this exact quote to express our frustration with people's denial of PO. Don is either the latest round of niave noobs, or trolling.

However I just wanted to offer the perspective that I've never looked at the issue as Peak Oil Production, but as Cheapest Oil Price point. And the issue is the impact on the economy of ever escalating oil/commodity prices (that is until shortages start resulting in the die-off).

Anyways, in uninflated dollars, the cheapest point was 98/99 (with oil at $12/brl), and our lifestyles have being going downhill ever since (although new 125% and 'interest only' mortgages have been able to hide the effects from most people)
Angry yet?
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Unread postby Leanan » Mon 16 May 2005, 10:54:06

Have you heard the latest? 40-year mortgages!

People are signing up for ARMs, 40-year mortgages, interest-only mortgages, etc., assuming that they'll be making more money in the future, and/or that they'll sell the house for a profit long before they mortgage is paid off.
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Re: Expensive oil = yes Peakoil = no

Unread postby FatherOfTwo » Mon 16 May 2005, 12:44:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Don_Quichote', 'W')hy ?

The Hubbert peak of oil production is about conventional oil.

The real peak of all oil production will never happen...

The Athabasca Oil Sands and the Orinoco Belt will save us.


Don_Quichote, assuming that you aren’t trolling, Clv101 has given the correct and succinct answer. It’s all about rate.
If you would like more information, read:
http://peakoil.com/fortopic6745.html
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