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Event countdown has to go!

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Unread postby mgibbons19 » Sat 12 Mar 2005, 20:57:46

I like the "but everything's gonna be ok sweetie" addendum.

Just enough smart assed irony that if anyone DOES take it too seriously, they deserve to look stupid.

BTW it is a doomsday cult. That's why it's fun. I thought that was understood?
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Unread postby TrueKaiser » Sat 12 Mar 2005, 21:11:49

points are labeled by me to make the counter points easily to list.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
1Deffreys, Pickens, Duncan, & Hubbert have no statistical model to support these predictions.

Although I do think the WOCAP model should be included.

2I'm really surprised you guys object to the presentation of ASPO peak prediction.

3It doesn't say anything will explode, it just says what ASPO has published.

If enough people hate it I'll yank it, but I thought the suggestions in this thread to build on it were of value.

<although oil price tickers cost money>


1.heh glad to know that. guess we can all close shop and go back to our consumer lives. Really of all people i would think you would not dismiss hubbert so easily sense his works forms the basis for the whole fscking movement of peak oil
2.there in is the problem, it is only a prediction, the way the ticker is makes it read like it will happen and not it might happen. either label it as a prediction and add the other prediction models or remove it all together.
3.which leads to point three. by giving it a date that is set in stone you give it the logical feeling of something big will happen. of course basing this on the views of other people on this forum is seems like in 660 days you expect the world to utterly collapse into anarchy and chaos on a scale never seen before and will not be seen unless someone slips up and kicks off nuclear Armageddon.
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Unread postby Chocky » Sat 12 Mar 2005, 22:41:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')ongratulations, by putting up the counter you all but killed this site.


So I guess you won't be posting anymore, good.

Honestly, the way some people on here talk you would think that this site represented some amazingly influential and powerful organisation, with the ability to implement and and change government policies.

Don't people realise that you can argue for anything, say what you like and advocate any course of action you can think of and it won't make any difference whatsoever?
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Sat 12 Mar 2005, 22:43:56

This is a good graph to put things into perspective for the newcomer:
Image
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Unread postby Liamj » Sat 12 Mar 2005, 23:08:00

What a storm in a teacup, whipped up by those using pedantry or social taboos to cover for their denial.
Tell em to go suck eggs Aaron, budge on this and there will instantly be some other detail about site that needs to be changed/removed (or discussed endlessly) cos it 'destroys our credibility', or some other such fabrication.
'Death by a thousand nuisances' its called in the PR world, regularly used against NGOs in many areas.


Speaking of which..
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johndenver', ' ')Why not the IEA model?
Cos its nonsense, their 'statistical approach' is straight out of Enrons accounting handbook. That debate has been had hundreds of times, IEA believers wouldn't be looking into peak oil. You ever read the domain name? so why you still posting here DAILY, if its all nonsense, you on commision from the fusion power corps?
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Unread postby TrueKaiser » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 00:26:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chocky', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')ongratulations, by putting up the counter you all but killed this site.


So I guess you won't be posting anymore, good.

Honestly, the way some people on here talk you would think that this site represented some amazingly influential and powerful organisation, with the ability to implement and and change government policies.

Don't people realise that you can argue for anything, say what you like and advocate any course of action you can think of and it won't make any difference whatsoever?


so just because i do not believe that in 660 days people will snap, hmm kind of like this.
http://www.vgcats.com/comics/?strip_id=77
i should leave this site because, at least to you. i obviously do not know what i am talking about?
only in religion and politics have i seen a fact become so twisted by people.
peak oil will happen, thats not what i am disputing.
what i am trying to say is while it will happen the day it happens will not be as dramatic as everyone claims things will not on that day suddenly collapse into chaos. it will be a normal day like the one before, the day after peak oil will be like the day before.
all it means is mathematically when plotted onto a graph with oil production it is highest oil production will ever be. thats it, nothing more, nothing less.
after peak things will change, slowly but they will. it won't descend into chaos and lawlessness until long after everyone here is dead and buryed.
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Unread postby threadbear » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 00:43:57

People are going to snap in 660 days? I thought it was in 666 days. :)
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Unread postby TrueKaiser » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 00:57:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'P')eople are going to snap in 660 days? I thought it was in 666 days. :)


if they did put it up 6 days ago yes.
anyway i would of found it more ironic then funny.
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 01:31:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', '
')Speaking of which..
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johndenver', ' ')Why not the IEA model?
Cos its nonsense, their 'statistical approach' is straight out of Enrons accounting handbook.


Then why have their predictions been more accurate than Campbell's (as shown in the graph)?

Campbell doesn't have the guts to make a real prediction. He's one of those wafflers who predicts the outcome of the Superbowl, and then keeps "revising" his prediction while the game is being played.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')conomists repeatedly criticise Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas for underestimating the amount of oil there is and pushing the year of peak oil production ever further back. When I asked him about this over the phone he admitted that his earlier studies produced inaccurate results but explained: "It’s that the public data on reserves is grossly unreliable."
http://www.threemonkeysonline.com/three ... php?id=193


It's not the data that's unreliable. Everybody else got it right using the same data. Colin Campbell is unreliable. He's so unreliable he doesn't even believe his own predictions anymore:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t the Energy Security of Supply conference Colin Campbell played down the importance of the actual year of peak.


If the exact year isn't important, why has he made a career out of incorrectly picking the exact year?
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Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 02:09:21

God. You guys have got to lighten up a little.

I love the little countdown thing. I want it made into digital clock. "There are 660 days, 14 hours, 12 minutes, and 11 seconds remaining until the apocalypse."

If we're all gonna die, do we have to be so angstfull about it? Kick back. Put on some music. Drink a beer. Learn to laugh at the irony of it all.

[smilie=occasion14.gif] [smilie=occasion14.gif]

Of course it's not gonna happen at that exact moment. That's what makes it humorous. But it is going to happen soon, and the counter reinforces that fact.

And of course this is a doom's day cult. Want a sip of my Kool-Aid?
:-D
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Unread postby threadbear » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 02:34:05

Smallpox, :lol: :lol:

I want the ideas and characters on this thread translated into a tv series called "Countdown to the apocolypse" sponsored by Freemasons and featuring commercials with cartoon Satans holding the countdown clock, offering discount sales on rapturemobiles.
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 02:36:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'G')od. You guys have got to lighten up a little.

If we're all gonna die, do we have to be so angstfull about it? Kick back. Put on some music. Drink a beer. Learn to laugh at the irony of it all.
And of course this is a doom's day cult. Want a sip of my Kool-Aid?
:-D
Absolutely right! Listening to some fun jazz from the thirties right
now - damn those guys knew how to have fun with music. Another thing to remember is that we don't all see things the same way - but so what.
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Unread postby spear » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 08:08:43

Yeah,worse comes to worse in 660 days you can go out in the yard and light some firecrackers with the kids.
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Unread postby Aaron » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 08:58:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')ll it means is mathematically when plotted onto a graph with oil production it is highest oil production will ever be. thats it, nothing more, nothing less.


Exactly...

Where are you wingnuts getting "doom & gloom" from this simple presentation of ASPO predictions?

ASPO predicts 2007 for peak.

The counter shows how long till then.

And that's it... no assumptions about effect. No claims of perfect predictive ability.

If the counter was titled "The world ends in 600 days", then your criticism is valid.

So far the only objections to a counter I can find in this thread are:

1) Nothing obvious will happen on that date.

2) We should include various other estimates with ASPO's.

well...

1) Didn't say it would.

2) By this logic we should include Nostradamus predictions as well.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Unread postby Barbara » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 09:31:31

Aaron,
thanks for putting the countdown *after* the "there are 666 days until PeakOil"!!!
:lol:
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Unread postby NevadaGhosts » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 16:25:42

I say the counter stays. Who cares if it 'scares away' some weak and ignorant people? I don't. This forum is not a Peak Oil believer's recruitment office to sway the masses into believing that peak oil will be a peaceful, slow, and smooth transition. Because it won't be. Anyone here who can't face the fact that peak oil really does mean doom and gloom can go start their own peak oil 'Happy Happy, Hugs and Kisses, Pass the Daisies Around, Feel Good About Yourselves' forum.
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Unread postby TWilliam » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 17:16:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NevadaGhosts', ' ')I say the counter stays. Who cares if it 'scares away' some weak and ignorant people? I don't. This forum is not a Peak Oil believer's recruitment office to sway the masses into believing that peak oil will be a peaceful, slow, and smooth transition. Because it won't be. Anyone here who can't face the fact that peak oil really does mean doom and gloom can go start their own peak oil 'Happy Happy, Hugs and Kisses, Pass the Daisies Around, Feel Good About Yourselves' forum.


Aaaayyyeee F**kin' Men brutha... :lol: :lol:
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sun 13 Mar 2005, 17:50:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NevadaGhosts', ' ')Anyone here who can't face the fact that peak oil really does mean doom and gloom can go start their own peak oil 'Happy Happy, Hugs and Kisses, Pass the Daisies Around, Feel Good About Yourselves' forum.
A Happy Happy, Hugs and Kisses Peak Oil Forum. Bwouuuaaaa Ha Ha! Within a week, the doomers would take over and the tender souls would run screaming from the room!!
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Unread postby BRAZNOFF » Mon 14 Mar 2005, 08:36:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.') Anyone here who can't face the fact that peak oil really does mean doom and gloom can go start their own peak oil 'Happy Happy, Hugs and Kisses, Pass the Daisies Around, Feel Good About Yourselves' forum.



You forgat about the campfire , holding hands, singing Kum-By-Yaand All we need is love :-D
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Unread postby oowolf » Mon 14 Mar 2005, 16:54:23

Just let us have the latest demand vs "production" figures. 660 days makes me think "660 days left to party-down".
Jazz?...who...
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