[kublikhan]

US electricity sector generation TWh
source 2007 2013 2014
fossil fuel 2,991 2,726 2,750
renewables* 352 522 540
nuclear 806 789 797
total 4,157 4,066 4,093

US electricity sector generation %
source 2007 2013 2014
fossil fuel 72% 67% 67%
renewables* 8% 13% 13%
nuclear 19% 19% 20%

renewables does not include rooftop solar.

2014 marks the first time other renewables(solar, wind, etc) passed hydro generation in the US, 281 TWh vs 257 TWh. 2014 also saw more US renewable capacity added than natural gas: 7,663 MW vs 7,485 MW. Renewables provided half of new US capacity. Although in terms of absolute TWh, fossil fuels rose more than renewables: 24 TWh increase for fossil fuels vs 18 TWh increase for renewables.

Table 1.1. Net Generation by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors)

Renewables Beat Natural Gas, Provide Half of New US Generating Capacity in 2014

[kublikhan]

In 2013, the world added 3x as many TWh from renewables as it did from non renewables: 383 TWh renewable increase vs 123 TWh non renewable increase.

World electricity sector generation TWh
source 2011 2012 2013
renewables 4,412 4,706 5,089
non renewables 17,757 17,921 18,044
total 22,169 22,627 23,133

World electricity sector generation %
source 2011 2012 2013
renewables 19.9 20.8 22
non renewables 80.1 79.2 78

World electricity sector increase from prior year TWh
source 2012 2013
renewables 294 383
non renewables 164 123
total 458 506

Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2014

Worldwide electricity production from renewable energy sources

[kublikhan]

Here's the world electricity numbers with nuclear broken out:

World electricity sector generation TWh
source 2012 2013
fossil fuel 15,575 15,685
renewables 4,706 5,089
nuclear 2,346 2,359
total 22,627 23,133

World electricity sector generation %
source 2012 2013
fossil fuel 69 68
renewables 21 22
nuclear 10 10

World electricity sector increase from prior year TWh
source 2013
fossil fuels 110
renewables 383
nuclear 13
total 506

Nuclear share figures, 2003-2013

Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2014

[kublikhan]

2014 renewable highlights:

* Globally, renewables accounted for 59% of new power additions with more renewable capacity added than coal and gas combined.

* in the EU, renewables were 78% of new power additions.

* Globally, modern renewables provided 23% of electricity, 8% of heat, and 4% of transportation(up from 2% in 2007).

* Wind and Solar PV both set new records for additions: 51 GW and 40 GW respectively. Both Wind and Solar PV exceeded additions of new hydro at 37 GW.

* The number of electric passenger vehicles on the road nearly doubled from 350,000 in 2013 to 665,000 in 2014. There also was continuous growth in electric public transport, including the expansion of electric passenger rail, light rail, and trolley systems.

* renewables investments broke a 2 year losing streak and started rising again to $270 billion. This is still below investments in fossil fuel capacity of $289 billion. However much of those fossil fuel investments were to replace existing capacity. Only $132 billion was for new fossil fuel capacity. Given almost all investments in renewables are for new capacity, global investment in renewable power capacity in 2014 was over twice the year’s net investment in fossil fuel power capacity.

Global Status Report

[kublikhan]

numbers:
Renewable power capacity(includes hydro):
2006 - 1,020 GW
2007 - 1,070 GW
2008 - 1,150 GW
2009 - 1,170 GW
2010 - 1,260 GW
2011 - 1,360 GW
2012 - 1,440 GW
2013 - 1,560 GW
2014 - 1,712 GW

Renewable power capacity (excludes hydro)
2008 200 GW
2009 255 GW
2010 315 GW
2011 390 GW
2012 480 GW
2013 560 GW
2014 657 GW

Wind Capacity:
2006 - 74 GW
2007 - 94 GW
2008 - 121 GW
2009 - 159 GW
2010 - 198 GW
2011 - 238 GW
2012 - 283 GW
2013 - 318 GW
2014 - 370 GW

Solar PV capacity:
2006 - 5 GW
2007 - 8 GW
2008 - 13 GW
2009 - 23 GW
2010 - 40 GW
2011 - 70 GW
2012 - 100 GW
2013 - 137 GW
2014 - 177 GW

Pumped storage capacity:
2011 135 GW
2012 138 GW
2013 140 GW
2014 142 GW

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the United States, petroleum is by far the most-consumed transportation fuel. But recently the share of fuels other than petroleum for U.S. transportation has increased to its highest level since 1954, a time when the use of coal-fired steam locomotives was declining and automobile use was growing rapidly.

After nearly 50 years of relative stability at about 4%, the nonpetroleum share started increasing steadily in the mid-2000s, reaching 8.5% in 2014.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]A Decade of Change
The last decade (2004 – 2014) saw a steady increase in the global demand for renewable energy. Although the last decade has seen tremendous advances in the
electricity sector, the renewable heating and cooling sector has lagged behind. Given that the share of heating and cooling in final energy demand is much larger than that of electricity, fostering growth of renewable energy in this sector is crucial. In the transport sector, the use of renewable energy in the form
of biofuels grew at a rapid pace for much of the past decade. Biodiesel production increased twelve-fold, ethanol production, already at a higher starting point, grew three-fold.

Global perceptions of renewable energy have shifted considerably. Ten years ago people widely acknowledged the potential of renewable energy, but large-scale deployment still had to be demonstrated. Now 10 years on, continuing technology advances and rapid deployment of many renewable energy technologies—particularly in the electricity sector—have amply demonstrated their potential.

By 2013, renewables supplied approximately 19% of the world’s final energy consumption, a little less than half of which came from traditional biomass. Heat energy from modern renewable sources grew from an estimated less than 1% in 2004 to 10% of total final energy use in 2014; hydropower grew slower than the overall increase in power demand, with the result that its share dropped slightly to 3.8% in 2014. All other new renewables used for power generation gained ground and increased their primary energy share from 0.5 to 3.5% over the past decade. Furthermore, the last decade saw an increase in initiatives to link electric transport systems with renewable energy, particularly at the city and regional levels.

Capacities
Source 2004 2013
Total power capacity(GW) 3800 5800
Renewable capacity(GW) 800 1560
solar hot water(GWth) 98 326
biopower(GW) 39 88
All Biofuels(billion liters) 31 114
Investment(billion $) 40 214

Total renewable power capacity—excluding large hydro—saw a sevenfold increase during the past decade; from 85 GW in 2004 to 560 GW by the end of 2013. Wind power saw a similar increase moving from a total installed capacity of 48 GW in 2004 to 318 GW in 2014. Solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation grew by a factor of 70, from 2.6 GW to 139GW.

OCEAN ENERGY
Ocean energy is still at an early stage of development and can be compared to the state of the wind industry in the early 1980s. There are currently numerous designs available with a correspondingly low standardisation rate; two clear indicators of how young the sector is. Governments and regional authorities continued to support ocean energy research and development, while major power corporations increased their presence in the sector, which is seeing measured but steady progress.

Global Expansion of Renewable Energy
By early 2014, at least 144 countries had renewable energy targets and 138 countries had renewable energy support policies in place, up from 48 countries in 2004.

Policy Stability and Predictability are Key
Stability and predictability of policy frameworks are needed to underpin sustained deployment of renewable energy. The industry needs predictability of policy frameworks in order to build up production capacities, to develop new technologies and to expand skilled employees in many countries. The last decade has shown that those countries which developed stable and predictable renewable energy policy frameworks are those that were most successful in building a local renewable energy sector and workforce. Bigger markets also result in economics of scale, lowering costs—especially for wind and solar PV—as was clearly seen over the last decade.

Renewable Power: First sector to be mainstreamed
Renewable power generation technologies have arrived in the mainstream market. In 2004, when REN21 began operating, the global market share of new renewable-based power plants was only 8%; by 2013 this market share increased 29% (excluding large hydro) or 40% including large hydro.

The Renewable Heating and Cooling Sector Lacks Progress
To achieve the transition towards renewable energy, more attention needs to be paid to the heating and cooling and transport sectors, as well as to integrated approaches that facilitate the use of renewables in these sectors. Globally, heating and cooling accounts for almost half of total global energy demand. However, this sector continues to lag far behind the renewable power sector when it comes to policies that support technology development and deployment.

Facilitating More-rigorous Adaptation of the Energy
System to Increase Shares of Renewable Energy Today, the penetration of renewables is no longer a question of technology or economics but one of developing more flexible markets and smarter energy systems. Thus, the policy focus should be on transforming power grids to become more flexible, increasing demand-side integration, and integrating power systems with transport, buildings, industry, and heating and cooling sectors, with the support of regulations, business, and finance models.

Creating a Level Playing Field for the Entire Energy Sector
Global subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear power remain high despite reform efforts. The exact level of subsides is unknown; estimates range from USD 544 billion (World Bank) to USD 1.9 trillion per year (International Monetary Fund), depending on how ”subsidy“ is defined and calculated. Whatever number is chosen, the fact is that subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear power are significantly higher than financial support for renewables.

[kublikhan]

My previous posts on renewable TWh had some errors. Since I can't edit them I'll just post the updated numbers here. Various sources report slightly different figures so keep that in mind. Bottom line with the update: Renewables added slightly more capacity than fossil fuels in 2013 but fossil fuels added slightly more actual generation(solar PV and wind generate energy for a smaller fraction of the day compared to fossil fuels & nuclear.)

World electricity sector generation TWh
source___________ 2012 2013
renewable______ 4,830 5,070
non renewable 17,797 18,063
total_________ 22,627 23,133

World electricity sector increase from prior year TWh
source_______ 2013
renewables____ 240
non renewables 266
total__________ 506

Sources:
IEA RENEWABLE ENERGY Medium-Term Market Report 2014

World electricity production

[kublikhan]

US energy flowchart for 2014: 2014

US energy use increased from 2013 to 2014 from 97.4 Quads to 98.3 Quads but still below the 2007 peak of 101.5 Quads. Coal and oil use declined but this was more than offset by an increase in natural gas. Drought conditions saw hydro decline, but this was more than offset by increases in wind, solar, and biomass. Nuclear also saw a slight increase.

1 quad = 10^15 BTUs = 36 million Tonnes of coal

US energy supplies 2007
--------------------------
Fossil fuels: 84.9%
Renewables: 6.7%
Nuclear: 8.3%

US Energy supplies 2013
--------------------
Fossil fuels: 81.8%
Renewables: 9.4%
Nuclear: 8.5%

US energy supplies 2014
--------------------------
Fossil fuels: 81.1%
Renewables: 9.8%
Nuclear: 8.5%

[kublikhan]

US energy flowchart for 2015: 2015

US energy use decreased from 2014 to 2015 from 98.3 Quads to 97.5 quads. Coal use fell but natural gas and oil rose. Fossil fuel use overall fell by 0.8 quads. Nuclear was flat and renewables grew slightly.

US energy supplies 2007
--------------------------
Fossil fuels: 84.9%
Renewables: 6.7%
Nuclear: 8.3%

US energy supplies 2014
--------------------------
Fossil fuels: 81.6%
Renewables: 9.8%
Nuclear: 8.5%

US energy supplies 2015
--------------------------
Fossil fuels: 81.4%
Renewables: 9.9%
Nuclear: 8.6%

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')PTA’s latest research shows that 46.9 percent of U.S. public transportation buses were using alternative fuels or hybrid technology as of January 1, 2015. This is in striking contrast to the 2.5 percent of automobiles using alternative-fuels in 2014 (the most recent year that data is available).

APTA statistics for 2015 show that 22.3 percent of U.S. public transit buses report using compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG) and blends. Hybrid buses comprise 16.7 percent of U.S. transit buses, while biodiesel public transit buses account for 7.4 percent. Other alternative fuels, such as propane and hydrogen, account for 0.3 percent.

[kublikhan]

Renewable energy highlights 2015:

* Renewable energy investments hit a new record in 2015: $286 billion(excludes large hydro). This was more than double coal & natural gas investments in new capacity for 2015 of $130 billion.

* For the first time in history, total investment in renewable power and fuels in developing countries in 2015 exceeded that in developed economies.

* The world now adds more renewable power capacity annually than it adds (net) capacity from all fossil fuels combined.

* An estimated 147 gigawatts (GW) of renewable power capacity was added in 2015, the largest annual increase ever.

* Wind power was the leading source of new power generating capacity in Europe and the United States in 2015, and the second largest in China.

Renewables 2016 Global Status Report

[kublikhan]

numbers:
Renewable power capacity(includes hydro):
2006 - 1,020 GW
2007 - 1,070 GW
2008 - 1,150 GW
2009 - 1,170 GW
2010 - 1,260 GW
2011 - 1,360 GW
2012 - 1,440 GW
2013 - 1,560 GW
2014 - 1,712 GW
2015 - 1,849 GW

Renewable power capacity (excludes hydro)
2008 200 GW
2009 255 GW
2010 315 GW
2011 390 GW
2012 480 GW
2013 560 GW
2014 657 GW
2015 785 GW

Wind Capacity:
2006 - 74 GW
2007 - 94 GW
2008 - 121 GW
2009 - 159 GW
2010 - 198 GW
2011 - 238 GW
2012 - 283 GW
2013 - 318 GW
2014 - 370 GW
2015 - 433 GW

Solar PV capacity:
2006 - 5 GW
2007 - 8 GW
2008 - 13 GW
2009 - 23 GW
2010 - 40 GW
2011 - 70 GW
2012 - 100 GW
2013 - 137 GW
2014 - 177 GW
2015 - 227 GW

Global Renewable share of generated electricity(includes hydro)
2010 - 19.1%
2011 - 20.3%
2012 - 21.7%
2015 - 23.7%

New annual investment in renewable power and fuels(excludes large hydro)
2005 - $75 billion
2008 - $186 billion
2011 - $279 billion
2014 - $273 billion
2015 - $286 billion

Renewables 2016 Global Status Report

[sparky]

.
from foreign Affairs
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... rgy-future

A pretty good overview of society energy transformation ,
it's not unsympathetic to renewable but raise several points

1- a very doggy score on predictions by pundits , they often got carried away by their views
2- the importance of capacity factor , the rated power output versus the actual useful power
IE ....what you could versus what you get .
3- integration into the distribution grid ,it's about equalizing the supply across a large area ,
notably to far away cities
4- financial coexistence , a common complain is the wind and solar are distorting the electricity market
making baseline generation uneconomical , it has already caused several coal power stations to shut down
5- there is technical issues but there is political ones too .

Elected officials react to a movement to decarbonise and promote some acceptable solutions to the voters
it fit with a widespread and increasing popular distrust of top down decisions made and imposed by an unresponsive and faceless caste of bureaucrats.
"Over the course of decades, nuclear energy came to be seen by many on the Left as antithetical to those aspirations
“an alien, remote, and perhaps humiliatingly uncontrollable technology run by a faraway, bureaucratized, technical elite” as Lovins memorably put "

as a professional group Electrical engineers are not primarily concerned with saving any planet ,
their primary duty is to provide supply
they are struggling to find solutions to make power available on demand anywhere anytime as cheaply as possible
if they can do it with wind and solar , that's fine
but there seems to be grid issue when those two provide more than 25% of the output

This discussion is especially important for industrial users ,
factories cannot be shut on or off randomly ,trains need to run on time ,services need to be provided
to often individual household usage is discussed , and certainly there is a wide range of possible adaptation.
but many individuals are employed by employer which require predictability




-

[ROCKMAN]

Any progress is good progress. But during that period oil reached $145/bbl and typically ranged between $70 and $100 per bbl. NG hit $13.30/MCF and ran for $6 to $8 per MCF for the first half of the period.

And now the inflation adjusted price of NG is at the lowest level in more then 10 years. Likewise except for several months in early '09 oil is at its lowest price in more then 10 years.

Bottom line: how ever much higher fossil fuel prices provided financial incentive to build out the alts much of it has disappeared.

[sparky]

.
And on the political side , budget realities have struck down some enthusiasms
Australia lost a government on the subject of carbon tax , people love the environment but hate taxes
as the old saying goes
"the voters wear their heart on the left side and their wallet on the right "

[ROCKMAN]

Sparky - Yes, my confidence is growing that eventually NG won't be the "bridge to the future"...coal may be.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')ny progress is good progress. But during that period oil reached $145/bbl and typically ranged between $70 and $100 per bbl. NG hit $13.30/MCF and ran for $6 to $8 per MCF for the first half of the period.

And now the inflation adjusted price of NG is at the lowest level in more then 10 years. Likewise except for several months in early '09 oil is at its lowest price in more then 10 years.

Bottom line: how ever much higher fossil fuel prices provided financial incentive to build out the alts much of it has disappeared.

[kublikhan]

Renewable investments are down sharply this year. Solar PV costs have also dropped sharply so this does not necessarily translate into a reduction in actual capacity additions. However given that other renewables had lower if any cost reductions, it seems likely renewable capacity additions have fallen as well this year.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')0 October 2016 – Global clean energy investment had its weakest quarter since 2013. Investment in renewable energy and energy smart technologies worldwide totalled $42.4bn in the third quarter of 2016, down 31% from the second quarter and a striking 43% from the equivalent three-month period of 2015. Chinese investment was down 51% compared with Q3 2015, at $14.4bn, while Japan was down 56% at $3.5bn. The US was down 40% on Q3 last year.

“These numbers for Q3 are worryingly low even compared to the subdued trend we saw in Q1 and Q2. A vital point to bear in mind is that there have been sharp reductions in the cost of PV systems, so that much more solar capacity can be added this year than last, per million dollars. However it is also clear that, after last year’s record investment levels, some key markets such as China and Japan are pausing for a deep breath. Also, in many countries, electricity demand growth is undershooting government forecasts. My view is that the Q3 figures are somewhere between a ‘flash crash’ blip, and a ‘new normal’." The global Q3 investment figures could be revised upwards in due course, if more transactions come to light. However, with the Q1 and Q2 data an average of 23% down on the equivalent quarters of 2015, it looks certain that clean energy investment in 2016 will end up well below last year’s record of $348.5bn.

[sparky]

.
Kubilai , the full story will develop over decades , with different outcomes for various places and uses
think of an ecological system , there is no real difference .
some adaptation will take place tending to an optimum cohabitation ,
each system will struggle selfishly to exist
leading to a global meta system which reach an ever changing balance .
biology , economics , techs , ideas and art , whatever imply large numbers in a variable world obey this law .

P.S. too heavy , time to go to bed