by dcoyne78 » Thu 21 Dec 2017, 16:23:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'd')coyne78, all electricity generation depends on the extraction and conversion of minerals at a great cost in energy. That is the essential condition of the eroei equation. It is a life-cycle accounting that considers the embodied energy to make the energy available. So lithium batteries depend on mining equipment. Solar panels depend on heating quartz to over 2,000 degree F. All energy burns up energy. It has little to do with money. Money is only an IOU on future energy expenditures.
Yes I understand that. One needs to look at all energy sources, not just oil. The money and trading is just a useful method for allocating scarce resources, a high price is a signal to producers (make more of that thing) and the incentive to produce is higher profits at higher prices. What happens as a resource becomes scarce is the price goes up and people use that resource more efficiently and they are willing to try substitutes. Entrepreneurs see an opportunity to provide those substitutes and they do so and as the production increases in scale costs go down which increases the demand for the substitute.
When it really comes down to it, it is simply a matter that you think this cannot happen and I think you are wrong.
Its a simple story resource gets scarce, price goes up, people use less and find substitutes for the scarce resource. For oil it's a matter of hybrids, plugin hybrids, EVs, arail, light rail, and other types of public transportation along with ride sharing, working from home, etc. Oil output is not going to disappear overnight, the process will be a gradual one over 2 to 3 decades as output gradually declines in line with declining demand as people move away from oil (due to high prices relative to alternatives).