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Economic Rights

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 17 Feb 2014, 14:54:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', ' ')So here’s a bit of the sampling of our electorate that must chose the proper leaders to pull us out of our tailspin:

"Does the Earth go around the Sun, or does the Sun go around the Earth?" If you answered the latter, you're among a quarter of Americans who also got it wrong, according to a new report by the National Science Foundation.

Only 39 percent answered correctly with "true" when asked if "The universe began with a huge explosion," while only 48 percent knew that "Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals," according to the statement. Asked whether there needed to be more government funding for science, 30 percent said there should be.

Good to remember that the vote on any person who thought the sun revolved around the earth counts the same as yours.


Great post, Rockman. You've put your finger right on the problem.

Its hard to get the American public to understand peak oil if they don't even know that the earth rotates around the sun :roll:
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 17 Feb 2014, 16:00:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')ctually the earth and sun revolve around each other.


Not really. Pluto and Charon are coupled rotating bodies that appear to rotate around each other, but both have similar masses so the centroid of mass lies between the rotating bodies and they are both actually rotating around that centroid of mass.

The sun's mass is much larger than that of the earth. While the Earth and the Sun also rotate around a centroid of mass comprised of the two rotating bodies, this centroid of mass is located deep below the surface of the Sun. So the earth rotates around the sun but the sun doesn't rotate around the earth--it only has an extremely minor response to the mass of the earth.

The bottom line is Galileo is still right---the sun doesn't rotate around the earth. :)
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 17 Feb 2014, 16:39:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SteveO', '
')
Massive inequity turns out pretty badly too. The French, the Bolshevik and the Chinese Communist revolutions all come to mind.

Except when either the rulers have overwhelming power backed up by a well financed & motivated military/police force like the USA or a decent social security system like many western European countries.
With the exception of Greece & Iceland the economic crisis of 2008 didn't cause any mass uprisings.
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Quinny » Tue 18 Feb 2014, 00:55:09

Pops

I think the basic premise of the concept of Economic rights is that if access to credit were seen as a 'right' rather than a privilege then money and the financial system would be more a facilitator than a means of control as it clearly is now.

I agree with your point that FF labour has 'displaced' human labour as the 'creator' of wealth in some ways, but having worked on a production line for the first time in my life, question the level of automation practical in many industries particularly give PO's effect on machines.

As we move past peak and a shift back towards manual labour happens (either post collapse or on the slide down) the concepts maybe economic rights might give us some answers or at least shift the balance of power.

It's new to me as well, but imagine if everyone had a right to credit. It would put more pressure on the 'system'/government to make damn sure everyone was educated/trained to be actively engaged in the system. It's clear that basic human needs can be produced using a fraction of the labour available, so maybe it would also free up more leisure time for all (that bit sounds good to me) :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') have no idea what the OP is about unless it is rejecting corporate personhood, is that it?

But more broadly I think we can say the economic tank really is full to the peak.

If you think about it, the massive accumulation of wealth today has been manufactured directly by fossil fuels. There were rich people a couple of hundred years ago (relative to the poor of the day who were really poor) but they were rich as a result of the labor of (poor) people and since the supply of people and the work they could do was limited, so was the wealth. After coal and especially oil, the amount of work that could be done became virtually unlimited, now we regularly move mountains, change the course of rivers, leave the planet.

To the extent that nowadays money doesn't relate to human work but to fossil work.

The buzzwords are "Knowledge Economy" - what does that mean anyway? It means we take for granted that actual, physical work will simply happen, that there is an unlimited supply of work available and all we need is an idea for an app or to invent a real estate trance or make a high speed trade faster than the next guy and boom, it's off to the races and the money starts flying from our butts without the least human work expended.

So now there are uncountable trillions of units of currency out there, both real and virtual. Those trillions are now largely the product of fossil work, to the extent that humans are becoming redundant and are rapidly being replaced by fossil fueled machines. The belief that keeps that balloon inflated is the holder believes, someone else will likewise believe, that his currency represents value. But even more basic than confidence and probably very rarely contemplated is the idea that the money held will be able to purchase something of value in the future. And how will that thing be produced?

Fossil fuels.

The thing that guarantees the conceptual value of all that money is the idea that sometime in the future someone will be able to offer the holder something of real physical value in exchange for his abstract money, something that is the result of real physical work. As pointed out above, work now done by fossil fuels way beyond the ability of human labor to ever replicate.




So the question is, what happens when it becomes clear that there can never be enough work performed - product produced - to spend all that imaginary money on?
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby AndyA » Tue 18 Feb 2014, 21:44:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat, after all, is the nature of investing, to accept risk in return for having your money work instead of you.

This has to be one of the most fucked up tautologies in history. How the fuck can money "WORK?" The whole idea of return for nothing is how you get inequality in the first place. In any society those who have, already have a huge advantage over those who have not. I think this creackhead just wants to replace a system that favours one subset of the elite, for one that favours a different subset. Not that any elites would be terribly disadvantaged either way.
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby AndyA » Tue 18 Feb 2014, 22:03:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think the basic premise of the concept of Economic rights is that if access to credit were seen as a 'right' rather than a privilege then money and the financial system would be more a facilitator than a means of control as it clearly is now.

Access to credit as a right rather then a privilege is a pretty dumb concept unless it comes with some pretty major caveats. Want a new yacht? Borrow some money it's your right. I'd say access to credit is the easiest it has ever been in history, in fact most people would say it is a right already and would scream bloody murder if they were denied a car loan. Easing the few restrictions that remain would lead to hyperinflation faster then you could blink. It would make more sense to restrict access to credit to things that benefit society as a whole. It's funny how this topic started by portraying everything backward. Money is a facilitator, and in what way is it being used as a form of control?? If lending restrictions were such that only worthy projects received credit then it could be used as a form of control. Which is how things used to be, people used to save and pay cash for everything because they couldn't get credit, with possibly the exception of a home loan from a building society or lawyer. Now you can get credit for anything.
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 19 Feb 2014, 04:53:24

Mind the Gap: Why most of us are poor

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here was a time when TV One seemed the natural home for measured, thoughtful documentaries such as this, the latest offering from Bryan Bruce, the man behind 2011's eye-opening Inside Child Poverty doco. But market forces have ravaged what was once our flagship state broadcaster, leaving it almost braindead, a fact that might raise a smile from Bruce, who examines the effects of an unrestrained free market in this fine doco and two others that will follow on TV3 in due course.

Standing in front of The Beehive in the opening minutes, Bruce poses two simple questions: why is the gap between rich and poor growing faster in New Zealand than most developed countries? And why is that bad for all of us?

The next hour is spent searching for answers, with input from a wide range of interested parties: a young unemployed mother reduced to sleeping with her three children in a tent in a relative's back yard; a couple who work full-time yet can barely cover their rent; a Nobel Prize-winning economist; an Indian entrepreneur who has set up a bank funding sustainable self-employment initiatives for the poor.

Bruce supplies historical context for New Zealand's steady slide from the broadly egalitarian society of the 60s and 70s to a highly competitive nation generating obscene wealth for a small elite; a place where a substantial proportion of the taxes gleaned from the now-struggling middle classes flows down to pay welfare subsidies that disguise the grim conditions endured by the nation's poor, while most of the profit generated from rents and the sale of consumer goods is kicked upstairs to the wealthiest 10 percent of our society, most of whom pay less tax than ever.

Blame is laid squarely at the feet of the neo-liberal economic reforms spearheaded by Roger Douglas back in 1984, and Bruce argues that even superficially compassionate modern-day social initiatives such as the Accomodation Supplements merely transfer state wealth to landlords, while the Working For Families top-up subsidises employers who pay appallingly low wages.

He finds no shortage of heavyweight financial experts who share his views. In one interview, an Australian economist dismisses asset sales, privatisation, radical market deregulation and the mythical ‘trickle down effect' as "zombie economics"; just a marauding mob of rotten, extremely whiffy old ideas that refuse to die, spawned within unenlightened parliaments and boardrooms then set free to roam the land, spreading misery wherever they go.

Mention is made of influential 2009 book The Spirit Level, which showed that drug abuse, poor mental and physical health, crime, obesity, violence and teenage pregnancies all increased in direct proportion to the inequity of any given society, suggesting the rich have as much to gain from a more equitable society as the poor.

Just before the closing credits roll, Bruce is back in front of The Beehive, casting dark glances towards the debating chamber. "If we want good food and warm shelter for everyone, a better life for our children and a longer, happier life for ourselves, we're going to have to do something about narrowing the gap between rich and poor. We need to legislate for fairness and equality, so that we can put some morality back into the marketplace."


stuff

You can view doco on Youtube:

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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 19 Feb 2014, 08:18:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')our confusion regarding the barycenter reflects your misunderstanding of the topic. The economy cannot flourish without universal access to credit, at all levels of society. And the previous and current administrations handouts to the bankster and wealthy is the antithesis of that truism.


Funny but the economy seems to have functioned well enough for the average person before the credit economy was created in 1913.
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Strummer » Wed 19 Feb 2014, 08:55:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'F')unny but the economy seems to have functioned well enough for the average person before the credit economy was created in 1913.


Debt and credit were the drivers of every economy since the neolithic revolution and credit itself is even older than money (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years).
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 19 Feb 2014, 10:03:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', ' ')If you think about it, the massive accumulation of wealth today has been manufactured directly by fossil fuels. There were rich people a couple of hundred years ago (relative to the poor of the day who were really poor) but they were rich as a result of the labor of (poor) people and since the supply of people and the work they could do was limited, so was the wealth.


Let's explore this comment. The sheer mass of work and energy provided by fossil fuels has taken us so far beyond the essentials for survival into the territory of indulgences that our inflated monetary system and credit, no longer tied to physical assets, are actually a reflection of this. We are no longer anchored by any metric to the physical essentials of survival. It is a bizarre abstract world, one that can even support the ignorance of the masses who don't know the basic physics of our planet and our sun.

Constraints of fossil fuels will not trigger any changes here since the vast amount of work performed has to erode down through all the indulgences before it starts to hurt on the basic survival level of food, shelter, sanitation, transport.

That is why we must look toward environmental feedbacks as the trigger, not fossil fuel depletion. Massive crop failures or epidemics as the two most likely scenarios. Otherwise the "inequities" and fantasy credit will continue.

The OP about equitable access to credit for all cannot happen without an arbitrator that can define the use of that credit. We have no value system that measures the common good, for man and planet, on the use of work and credit. That has become unhinged due to fossil fuels and technology taking us to an extreme abstract place in relationship with our natural world and planet.

The arbitrator that defines work and credit is there, it is just buried under miles and miles of sordid indulgences. That arbitrator historically was the environments we lived in that honed our past cutures and societies as we functioned with the resource limits present. Those limits provided the privilege of indulgencies to a small elite while the vast majority worked for the essentials of survival. What Pop's quote mentions above. So let's have the courage to go into that.

Under fossil fuels and modern industrial technology that privilege was opened to billions, what many consider the greatest success story, this opportunity that empowered a vast middle class participating along with the super wealthy all happily indulging in surplus.

Unfortunately for our planet this has been a disaster and unfortunately all of us here discussing this, being members of the priviledged middle class that we are, we cannot objectively solve or even look at a problem whose principal solution targets our own access to privileges.

Look at it this way. We focus on the growing inequities between rich and poor when the access to privilege to a vast middle class has created a planetary "inequity" where vast natural ecosystems have been replaced or harmed to maintain these billions of privileged middle class humans. And now we have the hubris, standing on the cadavers and wastelands of destroyed ecosystems, to complain about the inequity of the rich vs poor?

We are hypocrits of the first order. Let's start there in any discussion of inequity, shall we?
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Pops » Wed 19 Feb 2014, 13:57:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'W')e are no longer anchored by any metric to the physical essentials of survival. It is a bizarre abstract world, one that can even support the ignorance of the masses who don't know the basic physics of our planet and our sun.

Constraints of fossil fuels will not trigger any changes here since the vast amount of work performed has to erode down through all the indulgences before it starts to hurt on the basic survival level of food, shelter, sanitation, transport.

That is why we must look toward environmental feedbacks as the trigger, not fossil fuel depletion. Massive crop failures or epidemics as the two most likely scenarios. Otherwise the "inequities" and fantasy credit will continue.

Well said Ibon.

However I think your scenario is perhaps too literal. For example crop size (and so crop failure) has little to do with starvation in a world where a majority of grains feed livestock and cars rather than humans, supply is for the moment unlimited if calories alone are considered, the limit is economic. Likewise an epidemic simply can't survive long if it kills too many of it's host, even the Spanish flu only increased the death rate from around 500/100,000 to 1,000/100,000 for a year or two. The death rate in the US nowadays is maybe 75/100,000 with an incredible medical system (again limited by economics) but the biggest "improvement" to the death rate began 200 years ago as health departments became widespread and sanitation improved and, not coincidentally, fossil fuel use began to accelerate.

While generally I agree with you that the idea of unlimited credit (per the OP) is silly, and that "limits" imposed by pollution (climate change fits within the World 3 model of pollution) will be a constraint as well as the more recognizable "resource limits", I've become more and more convinced that the post FF decline will not be linear based on a simple, geologically constrained supply decrease as I had long thought. Physical "Surplus" can disappear overnight for any number of reasons but the biggest reason of all is the one that caused the surplus to begin with - profit.

Take away the profit and everything stops.
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 19 Feb 2014, 16:29:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')However I think your scenario is perhaps too literal. For example crop size (and so crop failure) has little to do with starvation in a world where a majority of grains feed livestock and cars rather than humans, supply is for the moment unlimited if calories alone are considered, the limit is economic.


Yes, the same indulgences are found in agriculture as in fossil fuel use, so the crop failures would have to be massive to have an impact. As for epidemics, we still have to see what happens to a pathogen that succeeds in spreading beyond the initial stages of pathologists and disease organizations to contain it. When you look at population densities, movement of humans across vast distances and the lack of resources of health facilities in many countries, you cannot compare past flu epidemics with these parameters today. Not to mention the secondary diseases that could happen if the death toll is high enough..

Regarding how important profit is, I agree with this although fossil fuels supply the primary energy for so many sectors of our economy and production is currently more state owned than private. Wont state owned oil companies increase their share of production as the profits get squeezed beyond what would be the cut off point for a private company to do so?

The main point of my post, however, is really the demand side, not the supply side. And the demand side I am refering to is the vast billions of middle class consumers.

Maybe we have start to frame the question as follows. At what point does a vast growing consuming middle class become more of a liability rather than an asset to the global economy? After all, labor is becoming more automated so we don't need the middle class any more for that. All this consumption by the middle class, although good for selling widgits, is putting a huge strain on the resource base. What happens when the consumer gets so tapped out that he can hardly afford to buy all those widgits, but the state has the costs to keep the infrastructure functioning, but no longer the tax revenue to pay for it.

The big squeeze that has already started on the vast middle class is going to get alot worse.

Those fancy indulgences beyond the basics of survival will return to the historical norm where only the uber wealthy will be able to afford them.

This will be good for the planet. The faster we erode the economic power of the vast middle class the better off we will be.
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 19 Feb 2014, 16:45:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
This will be good for the planet. The faster we erode the economic power of the vast middle class the better off we will be.


I really enjoy your posts, Ibon. I read every one---you've definitely got a dystopian vision that rivals James Kunstler.

However, I must quibble with your idea that eliminating the middle class will be good for the planet.

Most of the great environmental accomplishments in the US during the 19th and 20th centuries came from middle class movements and middle class sensibilities---the Sierra Club and the environmental movement came out of a middle class that loved the mountains and loved skiing and hiking and wanted to preserve nature. Clean water and clean air legislation is also designed to protect middle class Americans. Same thing with the National Parks----a US invention, they are essentially playgrounds for the middle class. There a few posh hotels in National Parks, but really its a white middle class scene. Campgrounds for the kids, nice well marked hiking trails for mom and dad, and cafeterias for cheap eats. Its like an outdoor suburbia.

The destruction in the middle class in the US won't come easy. One casualty may well be middle class ideas about preserving wilderness, saving National Parks, and improving the environment.
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 19 Feb 2014, 18:28:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
I really enjoy your posts, Ibon. I read every one---you've definitely got a dystopian vision that rivals James Kunstler.


Thanks but I hope I am not seen in that same sour puss way as Kunstler. Ibon is my cyber identity who is quite different than the host that takes guests on the trails in the cloud forests and wants their spirits uplifted so they tell their friends and come back and visit us. Imagine what would happen to our occupancy rates at MTCF if I gave each of our guests a heavy dose of Ibon :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he destruction in the middle class in the US won't come easy. One casualty may well be middle class ideas about preserving wilderness, saving National Parks, and improving the environment.


If we take the global middle class and put their ecological foot print on one column and their sense of wilderness preservation on the other, how do you think this compares especially when you consider that the most recent additions to the middle class come from countries whose urban and rural landscapes are so densely populated that "nature" and "wilderness preservation" is such an abstract concept that it is not even on their radar.

This defines by the way many Americans as well.

I wish it were so as you say but it aint.

I think it is a useful exercise to look at the vast middle class as an entity whose value may be questioned more and more by those who are trying to preserve and control their wealth.

Just as it is a useful exercise to recognize that all of us here on this website are members of that entity.

let's start from that well known saying that a single billionaire consumes far less than a thousand millionairs. At what point in the upcoming constraints of resources will the middle class be purposively disenfranchised and the growing inequities maintained in order to preserve privilege for the few?

The glorious age of the American emergence of the middle class when energy was cheap and resources were abundant did give birth as well to those environmental sensibilities and the establishment of national parks.

But in times of severe resource constraints when a vast game of musical chairs gets played, wont it be far easier to remove a few billion chairs from the game than trying to juggle the immense challenges of not only keeping 7 billion plus fed but also entertained?
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 19 Feb 2014, 19:44:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'A')t what point in the upcoming constraints of resources will the middle class be purposively disenfranchised and the growing inequities maintained in order to preserve privilege for the few?


Thats already happening. The middle class has been shrinking for over a decade now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'T')he glorious age of the American emergence of the middle class when energy was cheap and resources were abundant did give birth as well to those environmental sensibilities and the establishment of national parks.

But in times of severe resource constraints when a vast game of musical chairs gets played, wont it be far easier to remove a few billion chairs from the game than trying to juggle the immense challenges of not only keeping 7 billion plus fed but also entertained?


It makes my head spin to think like that. The prospect of "a few billion" folks being removed from "the game" is a step too far for me. I see that resources are getting used up and the middle class is gradually getting squeezed in the US, but I'm optimistic enough to hope that things will muddle along on a slow decay path for a good long while yet.

Its a tough world when being optimistic means you hope for slow collapse instead of fast collapse.
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 19 Feb 2014, 20:20:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
It makes my head spin to think like that. The prospect of "a few billion" folks being removed from "the game" is a step too far for me.


Let's see, in good times a mild version of this sentiment was used to justify moving millions of jobs to China resulting in the middle class greatly weakened. You don't think that in bad times a stronger version of this sentiment as I have suggested wont be considered?

Or hasn't already?
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Re: Economic Rights

Unread postby Oneaboveall » Thu 20 Feb 2014, 02:01:24

I'm going to sound like Pretorian again for a second, but I see a lot of (mostly justified) criticism of J6P, while it's people in other countries who are having a mertic-***-ton of children, not those evil middle-class Americans.
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