PeakOil is You
Doubling times and half-lives
Re: Doubling times and half-lives
by Tanada » Wed 25 Feb 2009, 06:26:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', 'H')ow did you guys dig this one up from the grave? This was from three years ago!
That would be my fault, I dug it up because I had something relevant to say, then when I finally got the board to accept my post it had just the quote in it lol.
I think your post was brilliant 3 years ago and it's still brilliant today Ayoob, and with all the other political BS nonsense going on the last 18 months or so people have clearly forgotten what is about to happen to our civilization.
For a while I thought the THAI system for getting upgraded syncrude out of the Bitumen sands in Athabasca might be able to be ramped up fast. In that case Canada would be a safe haven for us English speaking Americans, a kind of safety valve as it were.
Now with all the massive declines in Petroleum and Natural Gas prices causing layoffs and retirements in the energy industry I am thinking the first half of the decline is going to be doomerificly brutal on our civilization.
I watched the clips posted the other day from the Glenn Beck show on worst case scenarios. All of them had one thing in common, they all assumed energy would stay cheap and not contribute to the problems talked about. Those are the WORST CASE SCENARIO'S that the #3 Radio and TV host was willing to talk about publicly AND THEY WERE ALL OPTIMISTIC compared to your rule of 70 post.
People really do not grasp how much petroleum civilization consumes every day. We are in the throws of a significant recession right now, yet world wide petroleum consumption is close to flat. With the lack of investment going on right now because of the prices collapsing in the second half of '08 in the Petroleum and Natural Gas industries we are looking at one of the steeper decline profiles you talked about, not the relatively gentle 2% . That being the case there will not be a recovery, and it does not matter how many flowery speeches anyone gives. The USA Federal Government is going to invest some money in Wind and Solar, yippee big whoop rah rah, it is way to little and far far too late.
I actually heard some random commentator (I was flipping channels and didn't recognize the voice) on the radio today speculating on if the USA would surrenders its role as world policeman with one US city being nuked or if it would take as many as four. The commentator was dead serious and made a logical argument as to why they think its going to happen this year. I am half way convinced he was correct but emotionally I do not want to beleive it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Doubling times and half-lives
by sihmei » Wed 25 Feb 2009, 09:23:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t means that the majority of the damage to our economy and our way of life, and of the supply chain that brings goods and services to us, will happen in the first half-life.
Not really, the time it takes to half each time is the same. So we'll lose the first half of our oil in 30 years, the next half in 30 years, then the next half in 30 years. It's the relative % amount of our oil we lose each year that matters, not the absolute amount from the beginning. So if oil depletes at 4% a year, then it will be 4% the first year post peak and 4% 200 years from now.
Also, we have EROEI/Net energy. The second half of the oil is NOT the equivalent of the first half. The first half was the easy, cheap, real good quality stuff. The second half is the dregs, expensive, difficult, poor quality. The effect of declining EROEI is only marginal at first but rapidly accelerates over time until it heads off a cliff. So the net energy of the second half of the oil may only half the net energy of the first half, at best. So if the gross decline is 4%, the net decline will be at minimum 4% but accelerating. So T+10 years post peak we might have 4-5% decline. Then as the diminishing returns hit harder and harder, T10-T20 might be have a decline rate of 5-6%. Then T20-T30 might be 7-8%. Then T30-T40 might be 12-13%.
Then there is the per capita net oil energy, the amount of oil energy available to each person Earth, which is the only thing thatt should be used, NOT GROSS, as it determines the living standard of humans, just like when looking at how prosperous a country is you look at the GDP per capita, not the GDP gross.
Say we produce (gross) 80mb at peak. 10 years pre peak we produced 70mb and 10 years post peak we produce 70mb. The Earth's population 10 years pre peak was smaller than 10 years post, so the per capita oil, and therefore the standard of living globally, would be much lower 10 years post than 10 years past.
Then, add the net oil/EROEI to the per capita, and you find the amount of net oil energy available to each person on Earth declines very rapidly. So if the decline rate for the first 25 years post peak GROSS is 4% a year, the REAL rate people should be looking at is AT LEAST double - 9%-10%, and probably accelerating as EROEI kicks in. In fact I've done some modelling of this and it shows the net oil enegy per capita halving in the first 10 years, with the half life possibly getting shorter, depending on how much the population lags. In 20 years it's fallen by some 80%. Barely bears thinking about what that would do to the world.
The situation is far far grimmer than even most doomers and peak oilers realise.
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Re: Doubling times and half-lives
by Ayoob » Tue 19 Nov 2013, 07:45:07
I was just looking at this again today as one of my investment advisers was here this afternoon. We were discussing an index-linked annuity that has stopgaps built in to the product to prevent loss of capital on an ongoing basis. I set up a spreadsheet to go through likely scenarios that might predict when I could retire, go to half-time work, or ditch work altogether.
He's more optimistic than I am, but that's OK with me. It's good to have differing views on your team.
As I looked at the projections of potential future income, I decided to plug in the ages of my children. I'm 42 now, and have very young daughters. It looks like I will have a grand total of 46 hours per week when I am not asleep or working during my peak earning years. That is the time available for all activities that are not centered around collecting gold. It's really as simple as that. I have 46 hours per week to be in a bad mood, or play patty-cake with my daughters, or ride my motorcycle, or get drunk, or fuck my wife, or do anything else at all. I used to play chess, maybe I'll take 10% of the time I could possibly allocate to hanging out with my daughters to play chess.
If things go well and my investments return 5-7%, I will blow through the 4-17 period of my daughters' time with 46 hours a week to spend with them. I swear to God, it was a truly horrific moment to realize that I was going to whore myself out for money during the most crucial time of their psychosocial development in order to make my retirement easier.
It was really fucked up to click on a row in the spreadsheet to see my age, my children's ages, and the dollar amount I would have to live on each month. If I don't give a shit about their 13th year of life, I can pick up another $75 a month for life in retirement. If I don't give a shit about their 14th year of life, it'll be another $150. You can buy a lot of turkey for $150. Can you buy back your daughters' early teens for any amount of money? For the sake of the bleeding heart of Christ Himself, not a fucking chance. Torch it off or don't. You get one spin, and there are no backsies.
If I work until I am 55, I will have a $2200 monthly income on top of social security for the rest of my life, not indexed to inflation. My mortgage and real estate taxes will suck $1400 of that off, and medical care will probably run at least $500/mo in the most optimistic scenario. Seriously? WTF is that all about. All I'll be able to afford is food and clothing, and hopefully have enough propane to grill a chicken a couple times a week.
I guess it's a good thing my expectations are low.
The halving time vs the doubling time. This is important to me. When do I decide to pull up the drawbridge? How long are the u-pick farms going to be in business? How will the insurance companies deal with the challenges of the investment future? I used to be an investments broker, I have an idea how this might pan out.
He's more optimistic than I am, but that's OK with me. It's good to have differing views on your team.
As I looked at the projections of potential future income, I decided to plug in the ages of my children. I'm 42 now, and have very young daughters. It looks like I will have a grand total of 46 hours per week when I am not asleep or working during my peak earning years. That is the time available for all activities that are not centered around collecting gold. It's really as simple as that. I have 46 hours per week to be in a bad mood, or play patty-cake with my daughters, or ride my motorcycle, or get drunk, or fuck my wife, or do anything else at all. I used to play chess, maybe I'll take 10% of the time I could possibly allocate to hanging out with my daughters to play chess.
If things go well and my investments return 5-7%, I will blow through the 4-17 period of my daughters' time with 46 hours a week to spend with them. I swear to God, it was a truly horrific moment to realize that I was going to whore myself out for money during the most crucial time of their psychosocial development in order to make my retirement easier.
It was really fucked up to click on a row in the spreadsheet to see my age, my children's ages, and the dollar amount I would have to live on each month. If I don't give a shit about their 13th year of life, I can pick up another $75 a month for life in retirement. If I don't give a shit about their 14th year of life, it'll be another $150. You can buy a lot of turkey for $150. Can you buy back your daughters' early teens for any amount of money? For the sake of the bleeding heart of Christ Himself, not a fucking chance. Torch it off or don't. You get one spin, and there are no backsies.
If I work until I am 55, I will have a $2200 monthly income on top of social security for the rest of my life, not indexed to inflation. My mortgage and real estate taxes will suck $1400 of that off, and medical care will probably run at least $500/mo in the most optimistic scenario. Seriously? WTF is that all about. All I'll be able to afford is food and clothing, and hopefully have enough propane to grill a chicken a couple times a week.
I guess it's a good thing my expectations are low.
The halving time vs the doubling time. This is important to me. When do I decide to pull up the drawbridge? How long are the u-pick farms going to be in business? How will the insurance companies deal with the challenges of the investment future? I used to be an investments broker, I have an idea how this might pan out.
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Re: Doubling times and half-lives
by vtsnowedin » Tue 19 Nov 2013, 08:37:32
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', 'I') was just looking at this again today as one of my investment advisers was here this afternoon. ....
......
If I work until I am 55, I will have a $2200 monthly income on top of social security for the rest of my life, not indexed to inflation. My mortgage and real estate taxes will suck $1400 of that off, and medical care will probably run at least $500/mo in the most optimistic scenario. Seriously? WTF is that all about. All I'll be able to afford is food and clothing, and hopefully have enough propane to grill a chicken a couple times a week.
I guess it's a good thing my expectations are low.
.
......
If I work until I am 55, I will have a $2200 monthly income on top of social security for the rest of my life, not indexed to inflation. My mortgage and real estate taxes will suck $1400 of that off, and medical care will probably run at least $500/mo in the most optimistic scenario. Seriously? WTF is that all about. All I'll be able to afford is food and clothing, and hopefully have enough propane to grill a chicken a couple times a week.
I guess it's a good thing my expectations are low.
.
You should have the mortgage and any car loans paid off before you retire. That and not having to set aside money for retirement can amount to a couple of thousand a month you no longer need making $2200 more then enough.
College loans for the girls will keep yopu working at least part time. I know that one from experience.
Don't worry about time with the girls when they are teens as they will be so busy doing highschool stuff that they won't have more then five minutes a day to deal with you. Just be there when they come to you and do the 100K of fetch a kid to and from games and other school events.
Just my $.02!
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