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Don't understand

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Don't understand

Unread postby Stonemason » Sun 30 Aug 2009, 20:36:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'W')e're not post-peak while we're on the plateau.


I quoted various threads which thought peak was 2005, go argue with them about the technicalities. I was perfectly willing to go along with 2008 being peak, until I started finding out about all the oither ones.
I saw an Oildrum report that showed in the past 24 months going from an approximately 3% to 13% annualized decline rate. If this 13% decline continues then we are so screwed. And soon.


Could you pass me a link to that good sir?
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sun 30 Aug 2009, 21:36:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Stonemason', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'W')e're not post-peak while we're on the plateau.


I quoted various threads which thought peak was 2005, go argue with them about the technicalities. I was perfectly willing to go along with 2008 being peak, until I started finding out about all the oither ones.
I saw an Oildrum report that showed in the past 24 months going from an approximately 3% to 13% annualized decline rate. If this 13% decline continues then we are so screwed. And soon.


Could you pass me a link to that good sir?
Well as I said, the Oildrum. Some folks like to appear authoritative and post links for everything. Not me. It was a couple days ago. Find it yourself or don't, it's nothing to me.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby hardtootell-2 » Mon 31 Aug 2009, 01:36:37

Wow! something amazing happened today! My Brother in Law (who knows I am doomer and knows that's why some of the family HATE me) called me out of the blue. He wants to look for a farm in the same area as my land. If he moves there, the current will be a lot stronger for the rest of the family!

Its all hush hush. I just sent him an email which shared a positive vision on rural relocation and development. Very cool!

One of the things that can win people over in the long run is to maintain a really positive attitude and be quietly committed to your goals
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby Caffeine » Mon 31 Aug 2009, 01:39:29

Yeah. A lot of the time people don't immediately get hugely into self-sufficiency, but develop an interest in small increments. Slightly silly example: I like introducing people to the newer dynamo-powered stuff you can get with long-lasting rechargeable batteries. A lot of people have just never heard of this stuff and have to buy new batteries all the time. I like having a flashlight I can use in power outages without being concerned about wearing out a short-lived battery.

Also, people are more receptive to the idea of being prepared for smaller and more common "not business as usual" situations than serious doom situations. They're more willing to prepare for a 3-day power outage, or for being unemployed for a couple of months, than for an asteroid strike.

Hardtootell, congrats on the doomstead inquiry. :-D
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 31 Aug 2009, 03:18:26

Probably the single most important practical thing to do is get out of the city.
It is extremely hard to think for oneself in the city.
Becoming anything like self sufficient is virtually impossible in a city.
Avoiding brainwashing in the city/ How?

Yes country areas can be narrow minded and or bigoted, but there is almost always an element of independence and can do spirit in country people. There is also paradoxicly a far stronger sense of community and interdependence; knowing that little if anything is ever achieved by lone individuals.

Compare this to cities where people can get on the same train in the same seat everyday sitting opposite the same person who gets on and off at the same station; for years/ without ever saying hullo.
Move to a country village and everyone knows there is a newcomer within a day or 2.

This can be very confronting for urbanites; but start asap because the opportunity to do this is still there now, by the time most people realize the necessity it will be too late.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby Pretorian » Mon 31 Aug 2009, 05:28:31

u know there was a nice guy here, his name was Mr.Bill. So his teacher once said that in any society, and he knew what he was talking about, there is always room for the top 10%. So instead of eating a shotgun you could team up with some decent people, get some training and map some nice houses in the area in case of tshtf.. you know , protection services if they got something.. or none if they got too much...
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 01:08:51

Consider that we can get by with a tiny fraction of what we consume.

For example, a guy I knew drove a pickup truck hundreds of milez every weekend to be with his GirlFriend.

By contrast, I could almost survive on what I can grow in my garden.
Facebook knows you're a dog.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 12:50:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'u') know there was a nice guy here, his name was Mr.Bill. So his teacher once said that in any society, and he knew what he was talking about, there is always room for the top 10%. So instead of eating a shotgun you could team up with some decent people, get some training and map some nice houses in the area in case of tshtf.. you know , protection services if they got something.. or none if they got too much...


I never thought I would read a Pretorian article suggesting something Orlov has detailed! Come on Pretorian are you a convert?

I told you the guy is a genius; despite being Russian and socialist; He has in common with you a nice distain for Government.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby AgentR » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 17:20:03

Everyone always wants whatever is happening to happen fast enough to notice; yet most of the things that happen in the world happen very, very slowly.

You can't sell a book claiming that bread will be $3 a loaf in 2009, $4 a loaf in 2010, $5 a loaf in 2012, $6 a load in 2014, $7 a loaf in 2015, etc.. Its not dramatic, its barely noticeable, even if its consequences are catastrophic to billions of people. What happens with oil, when the drops are mitigated over and over by demand destruction, can the US function with 10% unemployment... how bout 15%, how bout 20%, surprisingly, I betcha it can. It won't be near as fun and easy, but yeah, government offices will still open daily, taxes will still be collected, and people will still put around in powered vehicles.

How do you sell a movie, where its centerpiece disaster consists of Bob and his family having macaroni and Tilapia for dinner instead of steak and baked potatoes. Bob still drives to work, its just a smaller, gimpier car. Bob still wears a suit, but its cheap, cheap instead of fine wool. Bob's wife still buys clothes, they just happen to be missing all those nice designer labels and have stitching that looks mildly suspect.

Peak oil and its partners in crime create a glacially paced destruction of everything that made western affluence available to average laborers.

There will be no "great reset."
Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby hardtootell-2 » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 17:40:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'E')veryone always wants whatever is happening to happen fast enough to notice; yet most of the things that happen in the world happen very, very slowly.
nice designer labels and have stitching that looks mildly suspect.

Peak oil and its partners in crime create a glacially paced destruction of everything that made western affluence available to average laborers.

There will be no "great reset."


I think I see what you are saying R but I tend to disagree somewhat. People, esp the mainstream media just aren't paying close attention to stories like these:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2% ... s_disputes

http://www.canada.com/China+buys+billio ... story.html

http://canada.theoildrum.com/node/3095

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersC ... HK20090616

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/4481841.stm

IMHO- these things will matter when they start happening closer together along with financial and climate change events?
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby Pretorian » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 19:12:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'u') know there was a nice guy here, his name was Mr.Bill. So his teacher once said that in any society, and he knew what he was talking about, there is always room for the top 10%. So instead of eating a shotgun you could team up with some decent people, get some training and map some nice houses in the area in case of tshtf.. you know , protection services if they got something.. or none if they got too much...


I never thought I would read a Pretorian article suggesting something Orlov has detailed! Come on Pretorian are you a convert?

I told you the guy is a genius; despite being Russian and socialist; He has in common with you a nice distain for Government.



I dont know what was he detailing, I'm just suggesting to the OP something better than eating a shotgun; I do not believe into a global anarchy happening simultaneously for a number of reasons. As for Orlov, he is not Russian and made a number of such blunders in his articles that could be forgivable only to a teenager girl, after a few chuckles.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby Caffeine » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 21:38:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'A')s for Orlov, he is not Russian and made a number of such blunders in his articles


Could you explain that a bit more...?
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 21:57:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caffeine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'A')s for Orlov, he is not Russian and made a number of such blunders in his articles


Could you explain that a bit more...?




"Dmitry Orlov, author of Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects, was born in Leningrad and immigrated to the United States at the age of 12. He was an eyewitness to the Soviet collapse during the late eighties and mid-nineties. He is an engineer who has contributed to high-energy Physics and Internet security, as well as a leading Peak Oil theorist whose writing is featured on such sites as www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net, energybulletin.net and www.powerswitch.org.uk.

Dmitry rides a bike for trips that most of us would take by car and live on a sailboat. You can follow his adventures on his blog: http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/ "

(Widely published Biography)

Not Russian? Like a silly teenage girl???
Come on Pretorian, what were you drinking last night? Better get some activated charcoal for that home brew of yours I think the methanol content may be a bit high.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby Pretorian » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 22:11:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caffeine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'A')s for Orlov, he is not Russian and made a number of such blunders in his articles


Could you explain that a bit more...?




"Dmitry Orlov, author of Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects, was born in Leningrad and immigrated to the United States at the age of 12. He was an eyewitness to the Soviet collapse during the late eighties and mid-nineties. He is an engineer who has contributed to high-energy Physics and Internet security, as well as a leading Peak Oil theorist whose writing is featured on such sites as http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net, energybulletin.net and http://www.powerswitch.org.uk.

Dmitry rides a bike for trips that most of us would take by car and live on a sailboat. You can follow his adventures on his blog: http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/ "

(Widely published Biography)

Not Russian?


Yeah Seagypsy, being born in Leningrad and adopting a Russian second name does not make you Russian. Mr. Orlov is a Jew.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby Pretorian » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 22:15:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Caffeine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'A')s for Orlov, he is not Russian and made a number of such blunders in his articles


Could you explain that a bit more...?



I'm not in the mood perusing all that, so, give me a few famous articles of his and I will show you. Ones you like most.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 22:38:57

Getting a tad off topic now.
Being Jewish does not count as a nationality; unless one is an Israeli or a Zionist Diaspora.
I have never read anything Orlov said of any Zionist (or religious at all) bearing whatsoever.
Being (perhaps) born Jewish or part Jewish, does not make one a raving Zionist.
Like I said, better check the methanol content.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby Pretorian » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 23:17:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'G')etting a tad off topic now.
Being Jewish does not count as a nationality;


yeah, it does. Its not about being Jew-ish ; Its about being a Jew. Suggesting othervise is insulting both to Russians and to Jews in Russia , or from Russia with some leftovers of self-dignity; of course those Jews don't hide under Russian second names.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I') have never read anything Orlov said of any Zionist (or religious at all) bearing whatsoever.


that proves that he is Russian?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')Being (perhaps) born Jewish or part Jewish, does not make one a raving Zionist.
Like I said, better check the methanol content.

I never said that it does, or that Orlov is a raving zionist.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 02 Sep 2009, 03:18:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'G')etting a tad off topic now.
Being Jewish does not count as a nationality;


yeah, it does. Its not about being Jew-ish ; Its about being a Jew. Suggesting othervise is insulting both to Russians and to Jews in Russia , or from Russia with some leftovers of self-dignity; of course those Jews don't hide under Russian second names.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I') have never read anything Orlov said of any Zionist (or religious at all) bearing whatsoever.


that proves that he is Russian?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')Being (perhaps) born Jewish or part Jewish, does not make one a raving Zionist.
Like I said, better check the methanol content.


Yawn..... :mrgreen:
I never said that it does, or that Orlov is a raving zionist.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby NickyBoy » Wed 02 Sep 2009, 07:11:27

Your nationality can be used to define your ethnic group, your country of citizenship and your country of birth (these are direct definitions of what the word means...look it up)

If this gentleman is of jewish decent, born in Russia and now a citizen of America he can claim Jewish, Russian and American nationality and can flip between any of the three as he wishes without being incorrect.

It doesn't matter what your opinion on the matter is Pretorian, being born and raised in Leningrad does make you Russian. You can argue all you like, reality says otherwise.
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Re: Don't understand

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 02 Sep 2009, 07:36:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NickyBoy', 'Y')our nationality can be used to define your ethnic group, your country of citizenship and your country of birth (these are direct definitions of what the word means...look it up)

If this gentleman is of jewish decent, born in Russia and now a citizen of America he can claim Jewish, Russian and American nationality and can flip between any of the three as he wishes without being incorrect.

It doesn't matter what your opinion on the matter is Pretorian, being born and raised in Leningrad does make you Russian. You can argue all you like, reality says otherwise.



Don't worry too much Nick, our illustrious Pretorian has a few issues with race, I have called him many evil names beacause I hate racists. I'm just worried about his health. The home brew can be deadly.
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