See this TOD post of mine:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4171
It finally explains the classic shape of the Hubbert peak.
IMO this is a first-principles derivation that doesn't use the Verhulst equation. The premise behind using Verhulst never made any sense to me.
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Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion
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Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion
by WebHubbleTelescope » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 11:44:43
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WebHubbleTelescope - Tar Sands
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Re: Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion
by cipi604 » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 13:25:23
Numbers don't lie.
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cipi604 - Tar Sands
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Re: Derivation of the Logistic model of oil depletion
by WebHubbleTelescope » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 15:16:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', 'N')umbers don't lie.
Indeed, and liars don't count. I liked this comment I got on TheOilDrum:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')WHT analysis would have been important in the 1920-1930's but its 2008 now and they seems to have done quite well without the dispersive model."
My response was: A common theme among many observers. For example, Big Bang Theory seems to be a hot topic among scientific cosmologists and the Stephen Hawking fans. But some genius comes along and says "Why is the Big Bang important? That happened billions of years ago, and I can't buy gas for less than $4 a gallon today."
So it's all a matter of perspective. We still want to understand how we got ourselves into this mess.
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