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Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby Free » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 13:19:43

Exactly Carver, you got it, very good explanation.

For example in Sparta in ancient greece there was a time when money consisted of iron bars - now think of if, would you prefer to hoard it in some chest with the risk that one day you are left with at pile of rust, or invest it in the economy and buy stuff with it?

The reason why money became so powerful is that it has so many advantages over all other forms of wealth. This allows to charge a fee for borrowing it, and get something for nothing.
This leads to two effects:
Deflation, money gets sucked out of the economical cycle because it gets hoarded - what would you rather do, buy a cow which has the risk to die or keep the gold coins which will always be there?
And inflation, because money is looking for the biggest returns, constantly looking for investment opportunities, creating bubbles and instability.
Now one might think that one effect defuses the other - but that's exactly not the case.

This is where the big economical problems today come from. We are incredibly wealthy in total terms, but the money concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the masses left with less and less money to spend and at the same time more interest to pay (even if you have no debts you pay interest massively - on every product you pay for, in the price there is interest included the corporation has to pay...)
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby jaws » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 14:30:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'Y')ou are a very smart guy jaws, much smarter than me, but the smartest guys have one weak spot: they trust their judgement too quick, because they experience it too often that they are right with their judgements. That's a reason why so many smart people don't get peak oil by the way.

What do you know about the middle ages? The common word of the "dark ages"? Some movies about guys in funny pants? I didn't say middle ages, I said a short period in the middle ages.
How about this: In the middle ages even royalty had to settle for crude hand-made pottery, while a thousand years earlier in the Roman Empire manufactured pottery was widely available to the lower classes. The Middle Ages were a primitive time following an economic collapse. It is not a model for anything.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course interest is very much connected with growth, and the desire to get something for nothing (as in social welfare). Of course this is "natural" in a way. But that doesn't mean we can't try to control it, to channel it. Yes competition is good, if it's fair. It's not fair if you get something for nothing.
Interest has nothing to do with growth. It is simply the consequence of humans demanding things now and not later. Because the supply of goods today is scarce the interest rate emerges to restrict the demand for goods.
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby Free » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 14:58:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Interest has nothing to do with growth. It is simply the consequence of humans demanding things now and not later. Because the supply of goods today is scarce the interest rate emerges to restrict the demand for goods.


I am sorry I don't understand how interest is connected to the scarcity of goods? I rather think it is connected to the scarcity of money - this is not the same?

Here is an excerpt from the book I mentioned, about the middle ages, it's a horrible babelfish-translation but I hope you still can understand what it means...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Were there interest-free times?

Whether the interest connected with the coins was completely insignificant in history once, is not delivered. There were however times of small interest height, with reduced negative consequences.

That applies e.g. to certain times in the Greek antiquity. Thus it is delivered that the spartanian statesman Lykurg outlawed gold and silver and introduced iron money. That made Sparta independent of the precious metals. This iron money had however still another another effect: It was not any more, how gold and silver, superior to the goods they payed for!
Who hoarded iron money, pulled it thusly from traffic, risked similar losses as the owner of goods. In extreme cases he found a heap rust in the treasure chest after some time only.

Well-known one and verifiable is the culture and blooming in the Staufer period.
"A gift of the monetary system", as Hans Weitkamp in the sub-title of its book writes "the high Middle Ages". In this time there was likewise a money, which was not from duration: the on one side coined/shaped so-called Brakteaten. That were coins from thin silver, which did not obtain their value by the mass of the used metal, but by the coinage.

The special about the Brakteaten however was that they were declared twice annually "of ill repute", i.e. for invalid and had to be exchanged against a smaller number of new coins.
One also before already knew the money disrepute with obligation conversion and anticipated payment in the early Middle Ages with the normal coins. It took place at that time however only at the installation of a new ruler.
Archbishop Wichmann of Magdeburg however made this disrepute the rule as the first with the introduction of the Brakteaten in the year 1154. Whether it happened from lack on precious metals or over over the conversion anticipated payment the national budget to finance, is not well-known.
The latter the reason was probable. But this Brakteatengeld, which under that Muenzherren themselves in Central Europe very fast spread, had certainly not taken into account benediction-rich side effect: This money rotated! Hardly one still collected it in chests, because with each accumulation of money one risked higher losses with the next exchange of money. Thus one continued to give its money in the same rhythm as as possible, as one received it. If one did not have any use, one lent it gladly, because in this way one knew to lose the "black Peter" of the conversion loss, which was connected with the money. Because the Geldleiher had then the risk and the lender the right of repayment of the full amount.

In a study of Harvard University this time of the high Middle Ages is called the probably happiest of mankind.
Several hundred cities developed alone in the German linguistic area. The Hanse had its bloom. For the first time there was a broad citizen wealth, which one can among other things still recognize in the few intact cities remained such as Dinkelsbuehl, Rothenburg, Luebeck. Never again it gave as many artists and craftsmen as in these centuries. Nearly each bar at the community centres and even the last stone on the points of the churches and cathedrals were artfully decorated.

The cathedrals put today still certification off from the wealth this time. They were established not - like the pyramids - by forced laborers, but by highly-paid craftsmen and building masters.

And this broad-steered prosperity was not the result of a constant increase in output or an economic growth in our sense. It was completely simply the result of a long epoch of managing without becoming impoverished economic situation break-downs, the consequence of a circulating money without an exploitation character.

To a large extent there were already five-days a week, because "blue Monday" was work-free in most guilds. This connection between blooming economics and money also the end of this era confirms in 15. Century, which coincides with the re-establishment of the "thick Pfennig" or the "eternal Pfennig", thus those solid gold and silver coins, which were not subject to no more the disrepute.

It came to this probably because some Muenzherren too often repeated the calling. Possibly increasing precious metal finds also played a role.

Anyhow the solid money disappeared again rapidly from the economic circulation. Surpluses of money were again hoarded and given change only at high interest. The money lenders, like the Fugger or the Welser, became rich, all others, the debtors, poor, up to the archbishops, the princes and the emperor.

Cathedrals weren't completed, stopped semifinished. "It was no more money there", explained a tourist guide once this phenomenon, because he did not know anything about the actual conditions.



The book: (in german)

http://userpage.fu-berlin.de/~roehrigw/ ... ldsyndrom/

The first chapters in english translation (no babelfish :) )

http://userpage.fu-berlin.de/~roehrigw/ ... m/english/
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby cube » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 18:06:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CARVER', '.')..........
- Extreme concentration of wealth. If you have money it keeps growing. If you spend less than the interest you collect, then it grows forever without you having to do anything.
..............
Sounds like a great theory, at least on paper. So the rich can stay rich forever..hmmm? But if history is any guide....fortunes rise and fall. No need to give examples, I think we can all think of wealthy people from history whom today their descendants are no better off then middle class.

However this whole notion that you can make money from interest is absolutely ridiculous. In the long run inflation will out run whatever interest you can make. Futhermore money generated thru interest is taxed like income...so once you subtract that out, putting money into the bank is a slow but sure fire way of losing it. :-D
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby CARVER » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 19:02:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'I')nterest has nothing to do with growth. It is simply the consequence of humans demanding things now and not later. Because the supply of goods today is scarce the interest rate emerges to restrict the demand for goods.


So let's say oil (energy) is scarce today, which results in rising interest rates. The rising interest rates discourages investments in general, so also investment in alternative energy. So we put things on hold, yet interest still get's charged. Somehow that interest has to be paid, so who is paying it? Those who have a loan, but where do they get all that money, since everybody is hoarding it. They will fight among eachother to get their hands on the small amount of money that is still getting spend. So one by one they go bankrupt. Those who have given the loans claim all their assets (or sell them cheap and claim the money). So we just have gotten rid of a significant group of people, who were in debt and now have nothing anymore. We continue without them and thus are now left with less people so oil (energy) is not scarce anymore. Do we leave those people to die? Use them as slaves? I'm sure they would not mind or become violent. Oil would be cheap again for the rich that remained, so they will continue their wasteful oil consumption, until it gets scarce again, and then this will start all over again (a game of Last Man Standing).

The state could also be in debt, so how is it going to pay the extra interest? It could increase taxes (and so decide who will have to cut back and maybe go bankrupt, one would expect the government to try to redistribute the wealth more evenly). Or it could take another loan from those who print the money, but that would cause inflation to rise or interest rates to go down, so real interest would go down. If real interest gets negative, we basically have a negative interest rate. In this case it doesn't make sense anymore to hoard the money and it is better to invest it. However it is not so easy to see when real interest turns negative, so people might still be hoarding the money when they should be investing it, so the state might not get the desired response and as a result the state might over-do it (print too much money). When real interest turns negative it makes sense to hoard assets (especially those that do not depreciate), but it also encourages to invest in creating more of those assets. But in the case of scarce oil, it would make oil even more scarce/expensive, but at least we will be conserving it and invest in alternative energy.

I don't know but this positive-interest raise does not come across as a solution to me. It seems an awfully complex way to end up with an equivalent of a negative interest rate. But the positive-interest raise does have the opportunity to concentrate wealth even more, however if they push it too far it is likely to cause civilization to collapse (prematurely).

It seems like in both cases, positive and negative interest rates, it is possible to get filthy rich:
- positive interest rate: hoard cash
- negative interest rate: hoard assets (that do not depreciate and are scarce)
If you control/own these in those cases, you are in power. You can charge whatever you want, turn those who need it into slaves. Until they decide to get rid of you.
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby jaws » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 19:39:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', '
')I am sorry I don't understand how interest is connected to the scarcity of goods? I rather think it is connected to the scarcity of money - this is not the same?

Money is a good. It is the good we use to conduct indirect exchanges of other goods, therefore interest manifests itself most clearly in the money market. Assuming that money-creation is restrained, interest emerges from people lending out their savings to people who need them in the immediate time.

It works like this. I produce say 1000 jars of beets in a year. I consume 800 jars to sustain myself (either by eating the beets or selling them in exchange for other goods) and store 200 jars in my cellar for my retirement. Those 200 jars are my savings. They just sit there, waiting for the future. However someone proposes to make me deal. He is currently building his house and doesn't have time to farm beets, but he will have time later. He comes to me and says 'I will borrow your 200 jars today and give them back to you later'. That is a no-interest loan. Unfortunately it is not in my best interest to make the loan because I am not sure if I will need the jars before the principal is repaid. I would rather have 200 jars in my cellar than a claim on 200 jars on some other person. I need to be compensated for my loss of access to the jars. We both want the 200 jars right now. However, a year from now, I want more jars than he does . I make him a counteroffer to lend him 200 jars in exchange for 210 jars next year. 10 extra jars is what I believe is worth the temporary loss of the jars. We agree and the loan is made, at 5% interest.

Money has the highest liquidity (the ability to convert into other goods) of any good and is therefore the best carrier for savings and loans. Loaning and borrowing money is essentially the same thing as loaning and borrowing goods. When you save and lend your money, you are temporarily giving up the power to purchase goods on the market to some other party. When you borrow money, you are giving up the power to purchase goods in the future in exchange for this power in the present. Borrower and lender are trading purchasing power through time.
Last edited by jaws on Wed 19 Oct 2005, 19:51:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby NEOPO » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 19:44:56

Sorry - cannot help myself :)

"The movie ran through me
The Glamour .....subdue me
The tabloid .......untie me
Im empty .......please fill me
Mister anchor ......assure me
That Baghdad is burning
Your voice it is....... so soothing
That cunning mantra of killing
I need you ........my witness
To dress this up so bloodless
To numb me and purge me now
Of thoughts of blaming you
Yes the car is our wheelchair
My witness ........your coughing
Oily silence mocks the legless
Boys who travel now in coffins

On the corner (corner)
The jurys sleepless (sleepless)
We found your weakness (weakness)
And its right outside your door

Now testify
Now testify
Its right outside your door
Now testify
Yes testify
Its right outside your door

With precision......... you feed me
My witness.......... Im hungry
Your temple......... it calms me
So I can carry on
My slaving....... sweating,
The skin right off my bones
On a bed of fire ........Im choking
On the smoke that fills my home
The wrecking ball is rushing
Witness ..........your blushing
The pipeline ........is gushing
While here we lie in tombs

While on the corner (corner)
The jurys sleepless (sleepless)
We found your weakness (weakness)
And its right outside your door

Now testify
Yeah testify
Its right outside your door
Now Testify
Now Testify
And its right outside your door

Mass graves for the pump and the price is set, and the price is set
Mass graves for the pump and the price is set, and the price is set
Mass graves for the pump and the price is set, and the price is set
Mass graves for the pump and the price is set, and the price is set

Who controls the past now controls the future
Who controls the present now controls the past
Who controls the past now controls the future
Who controls the present now?

Now Testify
Testify
Its right outside your door
Now Testify
Testify
Its right outside your door"
Rage against the machine - zack de la rocha

Thats right ..now testify...its right outside your door!!! :evil:
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby jaws » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 19:50:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CARVER', 'S')o let's say oil (energy) is scarce today, which results in rising interest rates. The rising interest rates discourages investments in general, so also investment in alternative energy.

It is an oversimplification to say that rising interest rates 'discourage' investment. Capital goods are scarce. There is only so much steel and machinery and other capital good the economy can produce at any time. If the interest rate is too low then businesses will borrow much more money to buy those capital goods and expand their business. However since the capital goods are scarce, all of these different businesses will be bidding up the price of the few capital goods they all need. There will be inflation in the economy, and most important of all, there will not be more investment than with the previous higher interest rate since what constrains investment is the scarcity of capital goods, not the scarcity of money.

High interest rates then act as a selection process between different investments. If someone thinks that, at current prices for capital goods, an investment will turn a 10% profit, then he will not hesitate to borrow at 5%. If the expectation is that the profit will be 5%, he will not borrow, leaving the capital goods available to some other investor. The interest rate transmits a signal to investors.

So going back to your example, if an investor expects that oil prices are going to skyrocket, that means that an investment in alternative energy will earn a very high profit. He will borrow a lot of money to invest in alternative energy. Another investor who wants to invest in suburban McMansions will look at the future profitability and say 'I better pass'. Then that second investor will not buy oil for his machinery and there will be more oil available to the investor in alternative energy.
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby Free » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 20:22:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', '
')I am sorry I don't understand how interest is connected to the scarcity of goods? I rather think it is connected to the scarcity of money - this is not the same?

Money is a good. It is the good we use to conduct indirect exchanges of other goods, therefore interest manifests itself most clearly in the money market. Assuming that money-creation is restrained, interest emerges from people lending out their savings to people who need them in the immediate time.

It works like this. I produce say 1000 jars of beets in a year. I consume 800 jars to sustain myself (either by eating the beets or selling them in exchange for other goods) and store 200 jars in my cellar for my retirement. Those 200 jars are my savings. They just sit there, waiting for the future. However someone proposes to make me deal. He is currently building his house and doesn't have time to farm beets, but he will have time later. He comes to me and says 'I will borrow your 200 jars today and give them back to you later'. That is a no-interest loan. Unfortunately it is not in my best interest to make the loan because I am not sure if I will need the jars before the principal is repaid. I would rather have 200 jars in my cellar than a claim on 200 jars on some other person. I need to be compensated for my loss of access to the jars. I make him a counteroffer to lend him 200 jars in exchange for 210 jars next year. 10 extra jars is what I believe is worth the temporary loss of the jars. We agree and the loan is made, at 5% interest.

Money has the highest liquidity (the ability to convert into other goods) of any good and is therefore the best carrier for savings and loans. Loaning and borrowing money is essentially the same thing as loaning and borrowing goods. When you save and lend your money, you are temporarily giving up the power to purchase goods on the market to some other party. When you borrow money, you are giving up the power to purchase goods in the future in exchange for this power in the present. Borrower and lender are trading purchasing power through time.


It was exactly the initial intention of money to equal goods, a fantastic invention for deals, a medium of exchange.
However, then it became a value of itself, much better than goods. Money is more desirable than EVERY other good, exactly because of its liquidity, durance, flexibility, versatility. Money is "every good at the same time" and as such it is more and better than every good.

And that's why it is not legitimate to say money = goods. That's why your jar-example - while I generally perfectly agree with its logic - is flawed from the beginning.
Because you can exactly not do with the jars of beets what you can do with money. At some point you will have to sell your 200 jars or consume them, because they start going bad. Or you might have so many jars that you don't have any store anymore. This is what makes the jars much less valuable than their equal value of money.

You would get a worse deal (lower interest) for your 200 jars than for 200 "money". Because you need to get rid of them.

Money you can keep, as long as you want - it's a positive feedback. You take money out of the economical cycle (as a medium of exchange, the initial purpose) - and in that way make it more scarce (and even more desirable) - and can demand even higher interests for it, because somebody will need it desperately. In the process you suck even more money out of the cycle, because you get richer, your savings grow and grow.

So in the end we have to parts of the economy: The creditors (people who get net interest), who get richer and richer, accumulate exponentially. And on the other hand debtors (people who pay net interest - even if they have no personal debt they pay interest as players in a debt based economy and with inflation!).

The problem is not only that this is unfair (hell what is fair anyway) - the problem is that this is an inherently unstable system which always must lead to catastrophic results, inevitably.
The accumulating creditor-money looking desperatly for returns (investments), which leads to runaway growth and bubbles, inflation, while the debtor-money gets less and less and leads to a deflationary cycle where consumers can't spend anymore, because they have to serve all the interest.

I know this is grossly oversimplified and maybe I said it all totally wrong, if so I apologize (I am not a native speaker anyway) and urge you to read other sources about this topic.

I get your point, that you say even without money there is the desire to borrow - I agree.
But my point is - money brings a totally new quality because it is not the same as goods, and this creates new problems, because it is possible to hoard it.
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby rogerhb » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 20:30:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'I')t was exactly the initial intention of money to equal goods, a fantastic invention for deals, a medium of exchange.
However, then it became a value of itself, much better than goods. Money is more desirable than EVERY other good, exactly because of its liquidity, durance, flexibility, versatility. Money is "every good at the same time" and as such it is more and better than every good.


Money is more desirable than EVERY other good unless you are actually hungry and you want to eat. Money is not every other good at the same time if those goods don't physically exist.

However we don't deal with money, we deal with currencies. Our currencies are based on the faith that others will honour their value. If people lose faith in the currencies their value plummets and ulitimately they are then only worth the value of the paper.

Historically fiat money systems fail. There is no reason to not continue this trend.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby jaws » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 20:37:07

Of course money is not the same as goods, if it were there would be no need for money. Money as a good fulfills a need that other goods cannot. The fact remains that money can only be as good as what can be bought with it. You can't eat money.

Hoarding money only makes sense if you expect that you will be able to buy goods with that money in the future. But hoarding money presents a very severe cost to you! You cannot buy goods with this money while you are hoarding it. You are restricting your consumption and selling your production in exchange for money. You work and get no benefit from that work, except the promise of future consumption.

That is why money is a stable system. Everyone who decides to save or borrow is weighing his options. Today or tommorow? At what price? That price is the market rate of interest. Inflation does not happen unless someone is creating additional money, because unlike others who have to sell goods and services to increase their balance of money, you are increasing your balance of money by itself. Bubbles and economic cycles happen because this inflation throws out of balance the system of valuing goods in the present against those in the future. High-inflation economies tend to shrink, not to grow exponentially, because investors cannot tell what is a good investment and what is a bad one.
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby Free » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 20:45:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'I')t was exactly the initial intention of money to equal goods, a fantastic invention for deals, a medium of exchange.
However, then it became a value of itself, much better than goods. Money is more desirable than EVERY other good, exactly because of its liquidity, durance, flexibility, versatility. Money is "every good at the same time" and as such it is more and better than every good.


Money is more desirable than EVERY other good unless you are actually hungry and you want to eat. Money is not every other good at the same time if those goods don't physically exist.



Well this is exactly the difference between the money you need (as a medium of exchange) to satisfy your needs, and as a medium of savings and investment. This is where money becomes something totally different.

But it IS every other good at the same time - if there is not enough supply it's only a question of the price...

Money is not so easy to understand as it seems, Helmut Creutz can say it much better than me:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
What Do People Believe Is Money?

This question is not difficult to answer for the common man. Money is, what he has in his wallet or at home in a drawer: coins and bank notes. On the market there are hardly any misunderstandings either: A bill is paid with money or with a transfer of deposits from an account. In practical life money is a neutral anonymous medium of exchange that circulates in economy.
With this idea of money students of economy get into difficulties after a few semesters. They are taught to count positive accounts in the banks for money, too. They talk about savings accounts, term accounts and giro accounts and comprise them within the term »book-money«. And this notion of money gets extended farther and farther. The former banker von Bethmann, whose critical analysis usually hits the target, even ›creates‹ money with every unpaid bill which will be ›destroyed‹ after the bill had been paid. »Basically nobody knows any more, where money ends«, an official of the National bank said in facing this situation. Note, these are the words of an official of the institution which is responsible for the amount of money in circulation.

How Can Money Be Defined?

The definition of money becomes more difficult if the conception of money will be extended to more and more phenomena. This difficulty is reflected in scientific statements, for which three samples should suffice:

»Money is a general good of nominal validity« (F.Lütje),
»Money is a creation of the money order« (F.G.Knapp) and
»Money is what is valid« (G.Schmoelders).

In the view of such »precise« remarks the statement of a national banker (O.Issing) is almost reassuring: »Huge heaps of scientific literature show evidence that the definition of money is anything but indisputable.« But, if national bankers do not know »where money ends« it is more than doubtful that they have a concise notion of what money is. Trying to define money with its functions one can describe it as follows:

Medium of exchange
calculating base, price measurement or price comparer
store of value and medium for transferring value.

Using judiciary or documentary aspects, then money is:
a public service for the benefit of all citizens,
an anonymous proof of service with acceptance compulsion,
a transferable document of claim on the social product,
sole legal tender.

And, if one considers the above mentioned faults of money, then it is:
An institution, the function of which as a store of value works against the original purpose as a medium of exchange,
an institution which stands on one leg because the compulsion to accept it is not counter-balanced by a compulsion to pass it on,
the only public service which everybody can take out of service and can legally abuse for private gain.

Within these confinements we have answered the question what money is. It is the medium to which all the definitions above apply. And this is only the case with bank notes and coins, the medium of exchange, which the state issues.
For all other phenomena which economists call money, like accounts, checks, credit-cards and so on, the definitions apply only in a few points. Consequently we should not call them money, even though we can do similar things with them as with money. Logic as well as scientific integrity should call for distinct definitions.


Sorry for long post, I just think this book hits the nail on the head concerning money, everybody should read it:

http://userpage.fuberlin.de/~roehrigw/c ... chap1.html
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby rogerhb » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 20:51:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'B')ubbles and economic cycles happen because this inflation throws out of balance the system of valuing goods in the present against those in the future.


I would doubt that this is true. Economic cycles happen with inflation or not. Inflation was effectively zero during the 1800s but did they not have cycles? I thought that was exactly why they instituted the Federal Reserve Bank in 1913 to stabilise the system.

Was the South Sea Bubble caused by inflation?
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby Free » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 20:59:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '
')Hoarding money only makes sense if you expect that you will be able to buy goods with that money in the future. But hoarding money presents a very severe cost to you! You cannot buy goods with this money while you are hoarding it. You are restricting your consumption and selling your production in exchange for money. You work and get no benefit from that work, except the promise of future consumption.


That's exactly the point! What if you don't need to restrict your consumption anymore? What if you have enough savings? It doesn't matter how you got there in the first place - it matters that you have enough money you don't NEED to spend anymore, even with consuming "everything you want or need". Then you can hoard it without cost. You don't need to give it away. But somebody is gonna need to borrow it!
That's where the interest comes in. Now you get interest - which you also don't need to spend! So your savings grow. And you get interest on interest.

There is a saying: The devil always craps on the biggest pile.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Inflation does not happen unless someone is creating additional money...



It is the "growing desire" to get interest which creates inflation.
Because the savings grow which want to earn interest. It is a transfer from the debtor to the creditor. Yes the investors don't know anymore where to put their money. That's exactly when you get something like the housing bubble.
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby rogerhb » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 21:16:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'T')hat's exactly the point! What if you don't need to restrict your consumption anymore? What if you have enough savings? It doesn't matter how you got there in the first place - it matters that you have enough money you don't NEED to spend anymore, even with consuming "everything you want or need". Then you can hoard it without cost. You don't need to give it away. But somebody is gonna need to borrow it!


Inflation rots away your purchasing power. Think hyper-inflation, think wheel-barrows of money. If you have dollars and nobody wants dollars?

And horror of horrors, nobody wants gold?
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby Free » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 21:18:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'T')hat's exactly the point! What if you don't need to restrict your consumption anymore? What if you have enough savings? It doesn't matter how you got there in the first place - it matters that you have enough money you don't NEED to spend anymore, even with consuming "everything you want or need". Then you can hoard it without cost. You don't need to give it away. But somebody is gonna need to borrow it!


Inflation rots away your purchasing power. Think hyper-inflation, think wheel-barrows of money. If you have dollars and nobody wants dollars?

And horror of horrors, nobody wants gold?


So, in hyperinflation times, did the rich get poorer, and the poor richer in comparison?
Last edited by Free on Wed 19 Oct 2005, 21:23:56, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby jaws » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 21:22:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'I') would doubt that this is true. Economic cycles happen with inflation or not. Inflation was effectively zero during the 1800s but did they not have cycles? I thought that was exactly why they instituted the Federal Reserve Bank in 1913 to stabilise the system.

Was the South Sea Bubble caused by inflation?

They did not have as solid a theory of money and credit as we do today. Even back through the 18th century financial inflation existed. The Bank of England, the central bank of the British Empire founded in 1694, fulfilled the role the Federal Reserve played in the 1920s. Expanding credit, fueling a boom, facing a crunch and triggering a recession. The gold standard simply keeps a limit to how far the financial inflation can go, and then forces a contraction of the credit supply. They didn't call it the business cycle in that time, they called it the trade cycle because it originated in London (which was the capital of international trade during the 19th century).

The only way to prevent this phenomenon is to abolish central banking, thus spreading the risk of financial inflation across a vast number of different banks. If one of them creates too much credit the other banks will drain it, ensuring that inflation will not take place. Interest rates will remain stable.
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby jaws » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 21:27:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', '
')So, in hyperinflation times, did the rich get poorer, and the poor richer in comparison?
Everybody gets poorer in hyperinflation. The capital stock of the economy rots away while everyone tries to protect whatever wealth they have left by buying hard assets like gold and real estate.
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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby Free » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 21:28:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '
')They did not have as solid a theory of money and credit as we do today.


Are you so sure about that?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Concepts should be an aid to conceive. Having clearly defined terms and concepts, even complicated relationships become comprehensible. Unclear definitions can even muddle simple facts and relationships.

Someone coming from other fields of endeavor and starts to learn about money matters will be amazed at the double talk which is prevailing in these circles.

Somewhere changes in the general level of prices get mixed up with the change of single prices and even get subsumed under the term inflation. Elsewhere profit, earnings, interest, yield and surplus value are used for the same as for different phenomena. And then checks and credit-cards are called »money« or bank notes and coins are put together with deposits and declared as »amount of money«. The stated reason is that the transfer from account to account can balance a claim, just as a change of hands with money.

What would we think of tradesmen, if they comprised nails, screws and fasteners within the term »glue« just because all of them can be used to fix two pieces of wood in a similar way as with glue? Even laymen would rightfully tell them that they are confusing everybody including themselves.


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Re: Delphi Debacle: workers must work for 1/3 pay!

Unread postby rogerhb » Wed 19 Oct 2005, 21:30:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'S')o, in hyperinflation times, did the rich get poorer, and the poor richer in comparison?


No the rich stayed richer by using their money to by up assets. Rather than store their wealth in money they converted it to property, art, gold. They lost faith in the currency and converted it to goods, effectively.
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