[skyemoor]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', 'S')wiching from a Hummer to a Micra, saving 30% of electricity, stop driving and flying around will result as MILLIONS of people jobless. Most of our jobs, today, are consumer oriented. Living more frugal means a lot of people without a job, with children starving, no more money to pay the mortgage, riots etc.
This is when TSHTF.

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cthulhu', 'I')t is otherwise with ordinary people: for them leisure has no value in itself, nor is it, indeed, without its dangers, as these people seem to know.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Note that their is trouble with the banking system now, and a law has been passed to make it harder for people to escape obligations of repaying creditors by declaring bankruptcy. In a few years the US will come out of this bad-mortage-debt induced fiscal crisis which will be masking the effects of peak oil. On the back side of it, it will be clear ethanol is not a savior here in the states and people will still be waiting on hydrogen. Note also that a law was passed to increase mountain-top-removal coal mining. That will greatly increase in the years ahead. Probably, the 2000s will be the decade in which truck-ownership peaked in terms of the percentage of the population that owns them in the US.

G

[dohboi]

I doubt most people will ever know what the core reasons for collapse. The causes of the Great Depression (what was so great about it?) are still debated.

There will any number of more immediate and obvious "causes":

corporate corruption,
"infrastructure failure,"
idiotic policies,
wars,
terrorism,
diseases,
famine...

These make news every day, while the really deep crises--

species extinction (beyond any seen in the paleobotanical record), the peaking of numerous resources not the least of which is oil, runaway GW (though GW is getting a bit more press recently), population overshoot,
runaway over consumption,
draw down of aquifers...

rarely get any coverage.

Most will never know what hit them.

[XOVERX]

Folks, we are over 2 years post-peak crude right now.

By all accounts, crude oil peaked in May 2005 at some 74.15 mbpd.

And if you want to throw in all hydrocarbon liquids into the mix, then peak there would be July 2006.

We've hit Peak Oil. It is upon us now. As I type.

Post Peak is no longer a "scenario." It's what's happening right now in the world.

So you scenario folks can take what's happening now and project that out. Not some day "in the future" when the world hits Peak Oil.

Because we're there now, folks. We're there right now. The world will never again produce as much crude oil as it did in May 2005.

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skyemoor', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', '.')..

[Nicholai]

My Grandparents did that during the Ukrainian famine, but it wasn't called cannibalism or insanity, it was called an 'eating opportunity'. On that note, I expect the cattle industry to collapse as grain/crops in general begin to decline with a shift in rain patterns from climate change coupled with shrinking energy availability for the farming sector (cattle farmers - in Canada - have a hard enough time turning profit as is, never mind during a petrol shortage). Looking at the fact that for every 20 joules of energy you put in to producing a steak, you only get one joule out, I don't foresee longevity in the cattle industry. Comme toujours, enjoy while you can. For the record, I would make a terrible steak, so don't get any ideas.

[Ferretlover]

Smiley: “As the history of Turkey and Germany show such an event is survivable but it will cause a lot of misery.”
I could be wrong, but the whole planet wasn't as deeply affected as Turkey and Germany. IOW, there was help available from other countries.

I have thought about this topic for quite sometime. In many ways, it is difficult to come to a firm result because of all the variables. It is so complicated!

IMHO, it is like putting a pan of water on the stove to bring to a boil.
The heat (population) gets hotter and hotter (more and more people).
Have you ever watched a pot of water boil? As it starts to heat up, first there are a few, then more little bubbles. Then, as the water gets generally hotter, the bubbles start to get bigger at different places in the pot.
As they break the surface, they break and return to the mass. (Read this as problems getting bandaids put on them)
But, as the water gets hotter, the bubbles get bigger, and rise faster (the heat sustaining the bubbles (problems)).
More and more heat (people), then more and more bubbles (problems) until the water boils over (everything is unstoppable) until the water puts out the heat, and the water slowly cools down again....
Until the water actually boils over, there is no way to adequately predict when and where a bubble will pop up.
I think that the bubbles are peak oil, climate change, resource depletion, etc. We are slowly getting more and more problems, and we have lost our ability to stop or control them.
Furthermore, as with nealy everything, they are all intertwined with each other and accelerate the problems with small and large factors.

I think that there are only a few years left to prepare the best we can. I think the decline will start off slowly, with a few pockets of big problems. Then, as humans fall further behind in resolving the problems, there will be more dieoffs due to famine and pandemics.

I think that renewable energies such as wind and solar will help to stave off the worst conditions for maybe as many as a dozen years, but, there is still no way to get around how deeply the uses of petroleum have permiated (sp?) our lives re: transportation and about 99% of the products that are made.

[XOVERX]

By all production indicators, mankind has reached, and passed, Peak Oil. Peak passed in May 2005. \

So we are in the still early stages of Peak Oil.

PEAK UNRECOGNIZED: May 10025 to the Present

Like waking from a deep sleep, general awareness of Peak Oil is occurring slowing. Slowing but ever surely. From almost no discussion in the corporate media, there is now the occasional story on oil depletion. Sometimes the story actually focuses on Peak Oil. But Peak Oil awareness remains low in these early days. There is much more discussion of Global Warming than Peak Oil, most likely due to Al Gore's efforts. Until gasoline costs become more difficult, unawareness will largely continue.

While oil and gasoline has increased in cost, those increases are simply enough to confuse the general public, not to make it angry. "It's the oil companies." "It's about profit." These seem to be the incipient thoughts of the mainstream about gasoline fluctuations.

The US is one small natural disaster away from gasoline shortages. Gasoline lines. Rationing. Even in 2007, we could see such shortages if a hurricane destroys the wrong part of the gulf.

Shortages will cause the American people to fully arise out of somnolence. Nothing like the frustration of a gasoline line to get people's attention. And those will happen. Soon now.

As I said, I don't think the US is out of the woods on gasoline lines this year with a bad hurricane. And if not this summer, then almost surely next summer. Before the next national election, I should think. General consciousness regarding Peak Oil will change dramatically when gasoline lines emerge.

Also, we are witnessing the crumbling of the home mortgage bubble. "Experts" are now predicting that nationwide property values will decrease nationwide for the first time in US history. The economy driver of home mortgage refinancing is beginning to evaporate. The stock market fluctuates wildly from day-to-day. The cracks in capitalism are widening. And deepening.

THE NEAR FUTURE: 2007 To 2010

The economy will lurch. US households are strained, especially those who lose their homes. The middle class contracts even as the wealthy accumulate more wealth. Service industries shrink as the mass of citizens have less money.

Financial and individual stress, depression, and anger take hold. It becomes difficult to afford to commute. Vacation industries, amusement parks, gyms, and other such businesses face a decreasing customer base. Times become tough for many.

Politics, however, remains critical, if foggy. First, there remains the growing possibility that Bush will war with Iran before his term ends in 2009. Secondly, the 2008 Presidential election must be held.

It seems clear to me that if Bush attacks Iran, not only will Peak Oil come immediately in the public consciousness, but more advanced effects of Peak Oil may be felt earlier than otherwise.

The world cannot afford for the Straits of Hormuz to be shut down for more than about 2 or 3 months. Otherwise the world economy will become severely crippled, perhaps it will not ever recover to prewar levels.

And if the Iranians are able to damage the US fleet, then the use of nuclear weapons is virtually assured. At least if Bush or another Republican is the President.

If war is averted in the Bush administration, then the US election becomes paramount. If a Republican is elected, I think the present form of preemptive diplomacy remains in place. In other words, a war with Iran remains distinctly possible, and the move towards ever greater fascism inevitable.

The Democrats, I think, would pull back from outright warfare, but how successful can they be with Peak Oil? Robert Murdoch controls large portions of the CM. And the rest is clearly right wing.

The Democrats would likely attempt to implement "reforms." First, at the wrong problem: Oil profits. But gasoline goes from 10 cents per cup to 50 cents per cup. People are bewildered. And angry.

All right, enough typing. My thoughts are that we a living in a transitional period. And times are fix'in to get a whole lot tougher.

[deMolay]

How many here actually think that any Gubmints, whether Un or National will actually bring a solution to the problem. Personally I think they are a large part of the problem. They have become a Leviathan. Peak Oil is here right now in a big way. This is the only reason that Billions are being invested in the Oil Sands of Alberta. I am a tradesman and a farmer here in N. Alberta. From a farmer's point of view, think of how much food we produced before the Green Revolution. That is were we will be headed very quickly. Due too high input costs ie, diesel, machinery, fertilizer, pesticide, herbicides, and cost of transporting all things to do with farming. That stage is underway now. The Green Revolution was brought about by oil and oil byproducts. When that reverses plus we will be forced to produce bio-diesel. Millions in the 3rd world will perish. And very quickly. If you want to know the precursor to worldwide famine. Watch the production levels and methods of the farmers of N. America. As the Green Revolution starts into decline the Famine will swiftly follow.

[deMolay]

Here is a good article on the Green Revolution. Keep in mind that nature likes all things in balance. The Green Revolution allowed the world population to increase exponentially. As the Green Revolution is reversed due to scarcity of fossil fuels. A massive die-off and rebalancing will get underway in earnest. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution

[Pops]

I just sat down and haven’t read all posts but would like to offer one quick, near term example: ethanol's demand for corn.

Think it is an airball in the PO scenario?

Look at your grocery bill today with a record corn crop coming and consider that more than a few farmers will elect to not grow corn next year due to input costs. The result will be even higher prices at the checkout stand.

Corn, in one way or the other effects pretty well everything you will eat today.

I think there are around 80 new ethanol plants in the works and projected to be online next year as I type this…


It is a long, complicated way to the Thunder Dome folks.