[Xei]

Hey, sorry if this is a stupid noob question but where can I get access to a clear graph of oil production over the last half century or so? I can't easily find any graphs which go beyond 04 or so.

I was wondering what the general outlook about the peak is here, by the way. I've been thinking about it recently; I used to be pretty depressed and thought it meant the end of civilisation, but nowadays I'm thinking more along the lines that it'll just cause large damage to poorly prepared countries (probably meaning the US and UK for example). There are a few countries out there where most of the electricity is produced by renewables and they're approaching 100% (Swiss, Norwegians...). Electric cars are going on the market over the next couple of years... hydrogen for the Haber process can come from electrolysis... and these countries tend to be politically neutral too, and with stable governments. What would cause unbearable conditions or societal collapse..?

Even in the UK we have loads of untapped coal which, if things really got bad, could, within a few years, be used to power houses and create oil, causing a cushion effect after a few years of austerity and hopefully then enough political will to sort out the situation.

Thanks.

[copious.abundance]

Source (PDF)

[TheDude]

world crude oil production - Google Search

[Xei]

Thanks The Dude, and I am aware of the existence of Google Search, but those look like '06 data and like I said, I was after the whole decade's.

OilFinder: cheers.

Interesting, looks like it's been a linear trend for quite a while rather than an exponential one. I thought we might be going through a plateau but apparently not.

[Xei]

I've just realised the interesting result of comparing those two graphs.

Most of the earlier predictions seem to have significantly underestimated how much more oil could be produced... only the top four seem viable now.

[TheDude]

2008 production was 85.5 mb/d. EIA.

[lonewolf]

IS "Xei" the employer/handler of OF2 or vice versa?

Not than anyone 'cares' what I and others here think, BUT, these and like-minded Fascist goons got to go if y'all want to ever return to a minimally respectable discussion forum.

[AirlinePilot]

Ahh I see another techno-cornucopian has been born...

Xei....if that is truly who you are..there is a lot to learn from many other sources instead of just looking at production graphs. I suggest you start by doing some research into oil production history. Follow that with some learning on current techniques used to explore for and drill oil. Next move on to reservoir management and the current state of global production in light of those areas of study. After that move on towards what the major global Energy agencies think is happening. Finally, go to The Oil Drum and start learning what some of the more corporately "disconnected" energy experts think is actually happening vice what corporate and political leadership want you to believe.

Pay particular attention in your studies to global discovery trends and field production with occasional side trips into discussions of what depletion and decline means. After about a year or two of intensive study I challenge you to come back in here and claim all is going to be fine and the future production graph of global oil has nowhere to go but up.

[Xei]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')S "Xei" the employer/handler of OF2 or vice versa?

Not than anyone 'cares' what I and others here think, BUT, these and like-minded Fascist goons got to go if y'all want to ever return to a minimally respectable discussion forum.

[Revi]

Thanks Xei, it was interesting to look at the graphs again and pick up on the logistic curve and the high and low cases. It looks like we might be in the middle of the two. I just hope it all holds up until around 2018 when I retire. I think we'll be in a serious decline by then, however.

[AirlinePilot]

Ill give you the benefit of the doubt Xei. When you squeeze that big graph down to the 2000-2009 time frame the plateau will become very evident.



The Cornu-trolls here will attempt to convince you that reserve growth and new discoveries can and will lift us off that plateau anytime now and global production will continue to climb for another 20-30 years. The entire body of evidence does NOT suggest that. It suggests, if you have an open mind, that we are struggling to even maintain the current levels except for the last 8 months or so since the global recession had an actual impact on GLOBAL consumption. By the way, global consumption is STILL PROJECTED TO GROW in the future.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xei', 'I')'ve just realised the interesting result of comparing those two graphs.

Most of the earlier predictions seem to have significantly underestimated how much more oil could be produced... only the top four seem viable now.

[AirlinePilot]

Something to also understand which shortonsense doesnt want to talk about is that as time goes on we get better at knowing what has happened in the past and we get better at estimating what can and might happen in the future. In other words the industry gets smarter and so do we in estimating what may or may not happen. Cornutrolls will attempt to persuade you with a logical fallacy that just because reserves grow(nad have grown) they always will.

In other words estimates from 1956 dont mean squat in todays picture.

Unfortunately that is not how finite resources work.

[Xei]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ll give you the benefit of the doubt Xei.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') In other words estimates from 1956 dont mean squat in todays picture.

Unfortunately that is not how finite resources work.

[TheDude]

They think you're another member posting under another name for whatever reason.

All the large government agencies such as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) project increased consumption over the decades. Usually their projections extend out to 2030, a conveniently round number that isn't too far off. Actually they've been using 2030 for quite a while, hmm.

Here is an excellent summary of various forecasts, including information on how reliable they have turned out to be: Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers. Read the primers listed at that site as well. All of your questions about mitigation have been hashed out in the past in great detail, do a search here and at the Oil Drum (TOD), the site I linked to here. That will give you plenty to research.

Best of luck.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') In other words estimates from 1956 dont mean squat in todays picture.

Unfortunately that is not how finite resources work.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xei', 'T')hanks for the graph, it's very helpful... of course extrapolating using the end of a data set is notoriously dangerous, and you can find a similar plateau up to mid '03, but it's not a good sign.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') In other words estimates from 1956 dont mean squat in todays picture.

Unfortunately that is not how finite resources work.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xei', 'T')hanks for the graph, it's very helpful... of course extrapolating using the end of a data set is notoriously dangerous, and you can find a similar plateau up to mid '03, but it's not a good sign.