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Crude oil prices: Energy Bubble?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: just a bubble

Unread postby Aaron » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 19:18:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'S')ometimes I really wonder what would happen on this board if Lynch et altera where right and ppb would plummet to $30 and stay there for the next couple of years...


Then it'll be just me in here typing:

...peak there is no peak there is no peak there is no peak there is no...

Tesla, Zero Point, Magnets, Fusion, ommmmmmm.........

Over and over again.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: just a bubble

Unread postby nth » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 19:20:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'S')ometimes I really wonder what would happen on this board if Lynch et altera where right and ppb would plummet to $30 and stay there for the next couple of years...


Most experts will say it is nearly impossible to drop below $30.
Reason is that over half the oil productions are controlled by governments and they don't flat out produce unless they have a budget deficit. Since, governments are flush with cash with first sign of oil price drop, they will draw back their oil investments and you will have a shortage of oil again.

Oil companies are different. They will invest even in a downturn. Governments don't. Just look at all the new oil coming online. They are almost all private and not government. Government spending has increase only in the past year. Otherwise, it has been flat since the last oil downturn. Private oil firms were investing billions despite the last downturn to turn up oil and gas in Russia and Africa and Gulf of Mexico.

Also, lots of oil firms are producing oil at a cost greater than $20. It is not very economical to continue production if oil prices drop.
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Re: just a bubble

Unread postby Free » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 19:24:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')Then it'll be just me in here typing:

...peak there is no peak there is no peak there is no peak there is no...

Tesla, Zero Point, Magnets, Fusion, ommmmmmm.........

Over and over again.


:-D Something tells me that it wouldn't turn out like that and that there are a lot of members - maybe including me - who would be stubborn enough to insist that peak is just around the corner, even if due to old age we barely couldn't type anymore on our laptops while our grandchildren were driving us around in their SUVs...
Last edited by Free on Fri 12 Aug 2005, 19:27:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: just a bubble

Unread postby strider3700 » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 19:27:19

Man if prices drop back to $30 I probably get at least 1 more year to prepair. I could really use 5-10 more years of business as usual.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: just a bubble

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 19:32:40

I'm really hoping this plays out slowly too, it took Rome a few hundred years to fall and I'm hoping the US/international Empire falls the same way. Same end result, for Rome, cows grazing around the ruins of the Acropolis as late as the 1850s, for the US Empire, a nice graceful decline, eventually buffalo grazing whever they feel like, Mt Rushmore aging gracefully and some wondering who those faces are, etc.
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Re: just a bubble

Unread postby nth » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 19:41:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'S')ometimes I really wonder what would happen on this board if Lynch et altera where right and ppb would plummet to $30 and stay there for the next couple of years...


Then it'll be just me in here typing:

...peak there is no peak there is no peak there is no peak there is no...


The last time this happen people were still crying peak. Just ask Campbell who predicted peak before the last oil crash and never stop.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Tesla, Zero Point, Magnets, Fusion, ommmmmmm.........

Over and over again.


This is funny. Scientists of Tesla's time ridicule him. Even today, we have no evidence that he was successful.

All zero point demonstrations are EROIE under 1. They claim over one because they don't include the energy cost to create the device, which includes magnets.

Magnets require energy to make it a magnet.

Fusion may arrived at the earliest 2050?
So yes, please continue to yell fusion, fusion, fusion.

Oh don't forget about all the biofuel that will not be able to compete and go out of business.
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Re: just a bubble

Unread postby HoveRoyal » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 20:25:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'c')ows grazing around the ruins of the Acropolis


But isn't the Acropolis in Athens? Was Athens part of the Roman Empire?
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Re: just a bubble

Unread postby fossil_fuel » Sat 13 Aug 2005, 00:22:21

yep, they conquered greece very early on.
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Re: just a bubble

Unread postby nth » Mon 15 Aug 2005, 11:57:26

Actually, those Greeks are not even the ones who conquer the world. Alexander the Great is from a different culture than Athens and Spartans. He conquered them and then went on to conquer the world. I don't know why some give credit to Alexander's success to Athens or Spartans.
It shouldn't be the Greek Empire, but the Macedonia Empire.
Am I missing something?
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Energy: The Next Bubble?

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Wed 01 Aug 2007, 23:39:07

After the tech bubble popped everybody sprinted to real estate, now that the real estate bubble is popping, where is everybody, the flock, going to go?

Alternative Energy? Whteher or not it will save us or not?
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Re: The Next Bubble?

Unread postby Eli » Thu 02 Aug 2007, 00:02:38

I thought this was an excellent question.

The systemic nature of the fallout we are facing in the credit market makes me think we are not going to see another bubble for a long while.

A German Bank nearly went tits up the other day, and as we speak billions in home loans are not going through and never will.

It seems like the whole way the monetary lending industry works is running into a huge problem. Yeah we are guaranteed a blood bath in housing. But the bigger issue is the fact that the banks are losing money. The next shoe to drop will be when the Yen unwinds and that will really send things flying.

I don't think there is going to be much of anything for awhile to invest in once all these huge macro economic problems start coming to fruition.

To prove the point

And here is the one where a head of German Banks talks about a banking crisis ugly 1930s banking crisis
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Re: The Next Bubble?

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 02 Aug 2007, 00:20:27

I'd say energy and gold will be future bubbles of significance.
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Re: The Next Bubble?

Unread postby SinisterBlueCat » Thu 02 Aug 2007, 10:49:05

as long as there are humans, there will be asset bubbles....there always have been, and there always will be.

mmasters, i wholeheartedly concur.
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Re: The Next Bubble?

Unread postby SinisterBlueCat » Thu 02 Aug 2007, 11:32:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SinisterBlueCat', 'a')s long as there are humans, there will be asset bubbles....there always have been, and there always will be.

mmasters, i wholeheartedly concur.
So you believe there will be a run on gold because it has some kind of intrinsic value?:


you mean like the tulip bulbs of the 1600's had intrinsic value?

asset bubbles are not about the intrinsic value of whatever asset is in demand, but about perceived value, the optimism, the hope and the greed associated with that asset.

booms and busts are a social and behavioral phenomenon, it is the ultimate playing out of the gambler's fallacy...and they will be with us for as long as we are around, in my opinion anyway.
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Re: The Next Bubble?

Unread postby NotMyBlood » Thu 02 Aug 2007, 11:57:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SinisterBlueCat', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SinisterBlueCat', 'a')s long as there are humans, there will be asset bubbles....there always have been, and there always will be.

mmasters, i wholeheartedly concur.
So you believe there will be a run on gold because it has some kind of intrinsic value?:


you mean like the tulip bulbs of the 1600's had intrinsic value?

asset bubbles are not about the intrinsic value of whatever asset is in demand, but about perceived value, the optimism, the hope and the greed associated with that asset.

booms and busts are a social and behavioral phenomenon, it is the ultimate playing out of the gambler's fallacy...and they will be with us for as long as we are around, in my opinion anyway.


Although, I think Eli may be right, I do agree with the above statement. People are still greedy, still looking for profit. And in todays "flock of seagulls" world, I'm wondering where all that energy will go? So I/We can get in on the ground floor!! See, I'm one of those greedy bastards...:):)
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Re: The Next Bubble?

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 02 Aug 2007, 11:59:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SinisterBlueCat', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SinisterBlueCat', 'a')s long as there are humans, there will be asset bubbles....there always have been, and there always will be.

mmasters, i wholeheartedly concur.
So you believe there will be a run on gold because it has some kind of intrinsic value?:


you mean like the tulip bulbs of the 1600's had intrinsic value?

asset bubbles are not about the intrinsic value of whatever asset is in demand, but about perceived value, the optimism, the hope and the greed associated with that asset.

booms and busts are a social and behavioral phenomenon, it is the ultimate playing out of the gambler's fallacy...and they will be with us for as long as we are around, in my opinion anyway.
You suggested a key psychologic feature inherent in all asset bubbles that will soon be in very short supply. It's very difficult to be optimistic about the future when that future is completely and uniquely dependent on petroleum. Which is in decline.

We've got some time until complete despair sets in and there's plenty of wealth to be transferred in the mean time.
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Re: The Next Bubble?

Unread postby SinisterBlueCat » Thu 02 Aug 2007, 12:04:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SinisterBlueCat', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SinisterBlueCat', 'a')s long as there are humans, there will be asset bubbles....there always have been, and there always will be.

mmasters, i wholeheartedly concur.
So you believe there will be a run on gold because it has some kind of intrinsic value?:


you mean like the tulip bulbs of the 1600's had intrinsic value?

asset bubbles are not about the intrinsic value of whatever asset is in demand, but about perceived value, the optimism, the hope and the greed associated with that asset.

booms and busts are a social and behavioral phenomenon, it is the ultimate playing out of the gambler's fallacy...and they will be with us for as long as we are around, in my opinion anyway.
You suggested a key psychologic feature inherent in all asset bubbles that will soon be in very short supply. It's very difficult to be optimistic about the future when that future is completely and uniquely dependent on petroleum. Which is in decline.


i think you underestimate human spirit. and i am going to commit peakoil blaspheme here, but i think you are overestimating the impact of peakoil. peakoil is going to be a bitch, but i do not really believe that it will change fundamental human character.

in my mind, it will be a lot like a great plague, lots will die, more will suffer, but when it is over (and yes, the crisis that will be peakoil will some day be over) thoses that have survived will be left to live a better life....and create more asset bubbles
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