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Credit Crisis near an END

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby Novus » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 02:43:37

The difference between what is happening now and what has happened in the past is like the difference between a post holiday clearance special sale and a going out of business everything must go fire sale. It is balls to the wall for these markets and I don't expect them to survive.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby americandream » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 02:57:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')he fact that the outcome will be a collective one seems a reasonable inference given that at that point in history we will have exhausted all others ranging from pure markets to corporatist interventionism and failed. A dying planet may possibly alter this picture otherwise I have yet to be convinced by any of the other options.
Have you considered Tribalism?

Tribalism is nothing other than a form of interventionism. Have you not noticed the tendency of tribalists to yet consider markets, albeit of the rudimentary kind. The seeds of our modern capital markets lie in the primitive markets of bygone eras.

Marx contemplated systemic change of the calibre where there was no other option but collectivisation and the complete dispensing of any form of distribution beyond needs.

Socialism may well be depicted as a post cornucopian response to the final commodity crisis. Communism is its militant and transitory manifestation. The fact that Marx also took the view that socialism would never work until there was the full globalisation of capital and a global working class serves to confirm that he was contemplating a globally irreversible systemic crisis where all points of the market compass including fascism, tribalism, nationalism, and such like were visited, to no avail.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 02:59:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')he fact that the outcome will be a collective one seems a reasonable inference given that at that point in history we will have exhausted all others ranging from pure markets to corporatist interventionism and failed. A dying planet may possibly alter this picture otherwise I have yet to be convinced by any of the other options.
Have you considered Tribalism?

Tribalism is a form of collectivism. Perhaps the only setup, where communal approach is working.

However I rather see feudalism, not tribalism as longer term outcome of failure of capitalism.

Communism is non-starter. It have already failed and it was kept going for so long only due to courtesy of West and plenty of Western credit.

Without that it would be gone within first 2 or 3 decades of its existence.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby maestroe » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 03:16:04

Marx was an ignorant illuminaty nepot.
He had scads of people come up with trash to delight the hubritic and lied a lot.

His only job was to dazzle them with Bullsh*t and present a target enemy so america would have an excuse to build a humongous militery, which they were obviously going to then just take over and rule the world with it.

See? Happened already., except the fat lady didn't have her heart attack yet, then it's over.

Philosphy is a pile of shit.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 03:24:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')ribalism is a form of collectivism. Perhaps the only setup, where communal approach is working.
However I rather see feudalism, not tribalism as longer term outcome of failure of capitalism.

Of course its a form of collectivism, just on a human scale where everyone knows each other.

Far as Feudalism goes, highly unlikely any King lasts long enough to create a Feudal state in a crashing economy.

People are going to be dieing so fast here its like Death Race 2000 to the Great Beyond. You won't get any stabilization until its dropped down to a Tribal level, so you can kiss off Feudalism.

I know this is coming. I see Dead People :-)
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby Micki » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 03:46:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SweetSmellofMoney', 'F')ellows, Currency is backed by your word and hard work not that of the Central Banks but the confidence that the man you are trading with has in you and you integrity and worth!

Is this a joke?
A transaction is backed by the counter party you are dealing with but that counterparty doesn't dtermine the purchasing power of the payment. That is the job of the central bank and the government.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 03:47:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'P')eople are going to be dieing so fast here its like Death Race 2000 to the Great Beyond. You won't get any stabilization until its dropped down to a Tribal level, so you can kiss off Feudalism. I know this is coming. I see Dead People :-)

Another one of your bad predictions, RE?
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 04:23:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')ribalism is a form of collectivism. Perhaps the only setup, where communal approach is working.
However I rather see feudalism, not tribalism as longer term outcome of failure of capitalism.
Of course its a form of collectivism, just on a human scale where everyone knows each other.
Far as Feudalism goes, highly unlikely any King lasts long enough to create a Feudal state in a crashing economy.

Crash will follow Gaussian curve.
First it will be steep and later quite mild.
Initially, once current society is off the cliff you will have fascism/Mad Max/whatever.
At that later stages, when speed of collapse slow down, feudal systems will reemerge albeit they are most unlikely to remind anything like medieval kingdoms.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou won't get any stabilization until its dropped down to a Tribal level, so you can kiss off Feudalism.

Think about Roman collapse. Feudal fiefdoms speedily kicked in.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 04:34:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')hink about Roman collapse. Feudal fiefdoms speedily kicked in.

In the case of the Roman collapse, you had underutilized resource available outside of central Rome which could be reorganized to Feudal states.

Today what you have are depleted resources that are spent out for developing a Feudal state. You also got no Church with money left over from the Roman Empire to organize up a Feudal State.

If there is to be a rebuild, its from the Ground Up. Down to the smallest unit of Human Civilization. The Tribe.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 04:34:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')t that later stages, when speed of collapse slow down, feudal systems will reemerge albeit they are most unlikely to remind anything like medieval kingdoms.

Crap. I want to get some use out of the two-handed sword I got at a renaissance fair.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby nobodypanic » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 04:37:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('maestroe', 'M')arx was an ignorant illuminaty nepot.
He had scads of people come up with trash to delight the hubritic and lied a lot.
His only job was to dazzle them with Bullsh*t and present a target enemy so america would have an excuse to build a humongous militery, which they were obviously going to then just take over and rule the world with it.
See? Happened already., except the fat lady didn't have her heart attack yet, then it's over. Philosphy is a pile of crap.

no, your rambling, nonsensical post is a pile of crap.

philosophy, on the other hand, is the queen of the sciences.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 04:37:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'Y')ou also got no Church with money left over from the Roman Empire to organize up a Feudal State.

You don't think the churches in the bible belt have money with their megachurches?
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby americandream » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 04:39:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', 'A')nd he still has ignorant followers today, even in the face of total economic armageddon. Go figure. [smilie=dontknow.gif]

Oh I have my moments of irrational outrage at aspects of modern civilisation. My own little sacred cows of do's and dont's. My own little wishlist. But yet history traverses her own indomitable course and we are fools who delude ourselves into thinking otherwise. Many of us on here if not all of us will not live to see the momentous changes that await us as a species, we may feel robbed at times in terms of the apparent injustice of it all, yet, it takes a degree of objectivity to recognise that what we are confronted with is but an element in a grander picture we may perhaps not be privileged to partake in directly. Yet each in our own way, leaves our own indelible print on this organic dynamic.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby nobodypanic » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 04:42:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')t that later stages, when speed of collapse slow down, feudal systems will reemerge albeit they are most unlikely to remind anything like medieval kingdoms.
Crap. I want to get some use out of the two-handed sword I got at a renaissance fair.

think somali warlord feudal system, just some local thug w/enough guns to bring his little slice of hell to heel. i don't think that's too hard to imagine. as to whether it'll really come about any time soon... well who the hay knows?
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 04:49:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'Y')ou don't think the churches in the bible belt have money with their megachurches?

If they had money yesterday and it was invested in the Stock Market, they don't have it today. It all just burned up in the Greatest Bonfire of Paper Wealth in all of Recorded History.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby americandream » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 05:14:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'Y')ou don't think the churches in the bible belt have money with their megachurches?
If they had money yesterday and it was invested in the Stock Market, they don't have it today. It all just burned up in the Greatest Bonfire of Paper Wealth in all of Recorded History.

RE: Can you sum up in one sentence, what it is that makes this crisis a defining moment.

As I see it, the loss of western confidence leading to premature redemption of western financial pools, drying up of western liquidity and readjustment of western asset values accompanied with the Darwinian destruction of western trading entities does not strike me as being of a sufficiently fatal degree for global capitalism given that whilst this regional crisis unfolds in the West, Asia stands in the brink of internalising her own developmental dynamic.

I see nothing to suggest that she will be thwarted in these endeavours by any other life threatening risks other than this partial and REGIONAL failure. I thinks its something of a leap of logic to suggest that this failure will be sufficient to deal a death blow to Asia and therefore the whole system. Why would this failure impact on the nascent Asian consumer/worker who numbers a formidable 2 billion plus other than some vague risk posed by the loss of a percentage of one's market? Is it not possible that the one may act to mitigate the other. Yes, I see a drastic slowing down, but I can't for the life of me see calamity for the simple fact that we are in an as yet, incomplete dynamic.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby Quinny » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 07:09:12

I personally believe that this is the point that everyone who say's 'communism has failed' miss. It's only when you take things from a global POV that you can see the effectiveness of a system.
The fact that Marx also took the view that socialism would never work until there was the full globalisation of capital and a global working class
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')he fact that the outcome will be a collective one seems a reasonable inference given that at that point in history we will have exhausted all others ranging from pure markets to corporatist interventionism and failed. A dying planet may possibly alter this picture otherwise I have yet to be convinced by any of the other options.
Have you considered Tribalism?
Tribalism is nothing other than a form of interventionism. Have you not noticed the tendency of tribalists to yet consider markets, albeit of the rudimentary kind. The seeds of our modern capital markets lie in the primitive markets of bygone eras.
Marx contemplated systemic change of the calibre where there was no other option but collectivisation and the complete dispensing of any form of distribution beyond needs.
Socialism may well be depicted as a post cornucopian response to the final commodity crisis. Communism is its militant and transitory manifestation. The fact that Marx also took the view that socialism would never work until there was the full globalisation of capital and a global working class serves to confirm that he was contemplating a globally irreversible systemic crisis where all points of the market compass including fascism, tribalism, nationalism, and such like were visited, to no avail.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby Carlhole » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 07:34:23

The economic crisis has spurred a re-newed interest in Marxism; Copies of Das Kapital have been flying off the shelves according to these reports.

And I've been hearing chatter here and there even from futurists and technophiles about how advanced computer technology, robotics and automation will inevitably lead to a re-think of our entire economic system - possibly along communistic lines.

There's a better article than the following one around somewhere but I can't remember where I saw it. But this one sort of hints at the broader subject of future political economy in an age of rapidly evolving machine intelligence.

Brainy Robots To Lead To Longer Unemployment Lines?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wired', 'R')obot lovers and outsourcing opponents could soon have something in common: the fear that their jobs are at stake.

In the future robots will take over many tasks performed by American workers today potentially leading to increased unemployment, says Marshall Brain, founder of How Stuff Works and author of e-book Robotic Nation.

"In theory we should all be able to go on a perpetual vacation as robots do all the work," Brain told attendees in a presentation at the Singularity Summit in San Jose. "Instead because of the way the economy is structured right now, when robots arrive it will have devastating effects on all of us because there will be so many unemployed people."

The implications of an increasingly automated economy could be dire for society unless we restructure our economy, he argues.
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Re: Credit Crisis near an END

Unread postby Novus » Mon 27 Oct 2008, 08:09:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', ' ')Why would this failure impact on the nascent Asian consumer/worker who numbers a formidable 2 billion plus other than some vague risk posed by the loss of a percentage of one's market?

Think about it. For the last 30 years Asians have been the savers. They deposit money into their banks which then is lent overseas in the West so that Westerners can consume Asian made products. Every year they lend us more money and we buy more of their goods. All this time the Asians are expecting to be paid back but they NEVER will. The West is in the process of defaulting. The Hong Kong mega bank HSBC imploded today because of bad Western debt and sent the Hang Seng index down 1600 points. Most Asians and Asian governments will be ruined. Who is going to be the one to tell the 3 billion Asians who saved for 30 years that their savings are null and void? Good luck with that. I am sure it go over real well.
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