[Karle]

A friend will sell his bike workshop and start a funeral business. Reason is half of the population can't wait to get vaccinated, which makes 40 million for Germany, and Bill Gates expects a large number of deaths from vaccination.

Besides that we have between 15 and 25% of all companies here in Germany which are bankrupt but still alive since because of corona they have been saved from being shut down. That grace period will end in January. Then it will all be totally diffferent.

Food, medicine, shelter, heating, guns and ammo will be in high demand. I am therefore investing in heating. Better said I am developing ways to heat with biomass waste which so far is working perfectly. Once the crisis hits people will knock on my doors asking how that works.

Also seeds and knowledge how to grow your own food. In March we had not only a shortage of toilet paper but also a shortage of seeds.

[JuanP]

There was a shortage of edible plants seeds in the USA for months, too. Some sellers stopped selling in retail amounts and only supplied wholesale amounts to previous commercial customers with pre existing accounts. Investing in companies that produce and distribute seeds is probably a good idea in the USA.

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JuanP', 'T')here was a shortage of edible plants seeds in the USA for months, too. Some sellers stopped selling in retail amounts and only supplied wholesale amounts to previous commercial customers with pre existing accounts. Investing in companies that produce and distribute seeds is probably a good idea in the USA.

[vtsnowedin]

You are both assuming that the Covid vaccines do not end the problem and the economy continues to decline. I am much more optimistic about this coming year and I doubt there will be any real shortages of any necessary commodity.
There are of course the bills governments have racked up fighting the pandemic and they will have to be paid with real money but renewed productivity should be able to stand that strain.

[JuanP]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'Y')ou are both assuming that the Covid vaccines do not end the problem and the economy continues to decline. I am much more optimistic about this coming year and I doubt there will be any real shortages of any necessary commodity.
There are of course the bills governments have racked up fighting the pandemic and they will have to be paid with real money but renewed productivity should be able to stand that strain.

[vtsnowedin]

My Covid _19 investment today was a fifty pound bag of locally grown potatoes for $10.00. That should last the two of us well into the winter when grocery store staff will have been vaccinated.

[vtsnowedin]

The last couple of days Maderna stock has been very volatile shooting up to $170 and plunging to $135 then climbing back up to $147.
One explanation given for the drop is that Merc which invested $50,000,000 in Maderna back in 2015 at $20/ share is selling out a chunk of it to collect their profits. If they sold the whole thing at $160 that would have netted them 350 million.
Question ? Dose the Merc corporation pay capital gains tax on that or does it go into the corporate balance sheet for corporate profits tax rate?

[vtsnowedin]

Looking at this next year and it's possibilities that are Corvid related there are way more different prospects then I have chunks of money to invest in.
One that comes to mind are the firms that make all those glass vials to hold the coivid vaccines in. (Thermo- Fisher etc.). Another is the airlines that will actually ship much of the vaccine and will recover once the pandemic is over. Yet another is the major healthcare companies that will surly get their cut in distributing the vaccines. And there is the companies making all those -100 freezers for the vaccines that need it. I can place a bet or two but I can't cover them all.
Something for me to think about in the next few months.

[vtsnowedin]

Late breaking news. Pfizer announced they had problems with the quality of raw materials received and cut their projected 2021 deliveries of their Covid-19 vaccine by half. Their stock predictably took a dive but only 1.75% while competing Maderna stock jumped up 10.23%.
I hope they can resolve those supply line issues quickly.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Karle', ' ')and Bill Gates expects a large number of deaths from vaccination.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'Y')ou are both assuming that the Covid vaccines do not end the problem and the economy continues to decline. I am much more optimistic about this coming year and I doubt there will be any real shortages of any necessary commodity.
There are of course the bills governments have racked up fighting the pandemic and they will have to be paid with real money but renewed productivity should be able to stand that strain.

[vtsnowedin]

While a young anti-vaxer healthcare worker will have tough choices to make as well as their employer I think that those actually at risk of dying will roll up their sleeves pretty fast. Consider that in Vermont (figures handy) 83% of deaths are in the 70 plus age group and if you include those over 60 years old you cover 93%. Being in that +60 group I certainly will get vaccinated as as possible. Get the lions share of that older group vaccinated and the deaths at least will drop like a stone.
The fact that travel, vacations, and even employment will probably be restricted for those younger but refusing to get vaccinated should bring enough of those cohorts in line to get to that Herd immunity level needed.

[evilgenius]

Since investing is about figuring out tomorrow today, or trying, I think it's time to look at oil. Consider for a second the pent up demand to drive. It's something, driving as a means to express personal freedom, that has been practically hard coded into us over the last, modern era, grip of decades. Demand for driving fuel will return soon. Many oil stocks will at least rebound to what their average levels were before the pandemic knocked out demand. And they will do it as those investors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.

I think the real question is which companies within the sector are the best to buy. Should a person reach out for a long term play, like RIG, or go for more immediate returns, with CVX or other?

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'i')nvestors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.?

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'S')ince investing is about figuring out tomorrow today, or trying, I think it's time to look at oil. Consider for a second the pent up demand to drive. It's something, driving as a means to express personal freedom, that has been practically hard coded into us over the last, modern era, grip of decades. Demand for driving fuel will return soon. Many oil stocks will at least rebound to what their average levels were before the pandemic knocked out demand. And they will do it as those investors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.

I think the real question is which companies within the sector are the best to buy. Should a person reach out for a long term play, like RIG, or go for more immediate returns, with CVX or other?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'i')nvestors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'S')ince investing is about figuring out tomorrow today, or trying, I think it's time to look at oil. Consider for a second the pent up demand to drive. It's something, driving as a means to express personal freedom, that has been practically hard coded into us over the last, modern era, grip of decades. Demand for driving fuel will return soon. Many oil stocks will at least rebound to what their average levels were before the pandemic knocked out demand. And they will do it as those investors who figure this out realize they need to position themselves for it, not when it actually happens.

I think the real question is which companies within the sector are the best to buy. Should a person reach out for a long term play, like RIG, or go for more immediate returns, with CVX or other?

[vtsnowedin]

CVX vs XOM is six of one a half dozen of the other. I took XOM at $35.80 and would not be surprised to see it go back to $70 and above. On a more forward looking investment I bought a bit of NEE (Nextera energy) as they have wind ,solar battery storage operations along with traditional oil gas and coal plants. In the same size class as both XOM and CVX but a better spread across the energy industry both today and tomorrow.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'C')VX vs XOM is six of one a half dozen of the other. I took XOM at $35.80 and would not be surprised to see it go back to $70 and above. On a more forward looking investment I bought a bit of NEE (Nextera energy) as they have wind ,solar battery storage operations along with traditional oil gas and coal plants. In the same size class as both XOM and CVX but a better spread across the energy industry both today and tomorrow.

[evilgenius]

A few weeks ago I bought HEP at about $12. It's gained about $3 since. I think they can get back to hovering around $24. The beautiful thing about HEP is that their dividend is built for that higher price. It is absurdly high right now because of the current low price range. If this period were not temporary by definition, I think I could expect a dividend cut. This isn't the only stock like this, I'm sure. It just stood out for me because I watch it. I wonder if anybody else, like with the CVX dividend example, has seen this same situation develop with stocks they watch?