In another thread, thuja listed "the collapse of the auto industry" as an effect of peak oil in 2005.
This is emblematic of a problem I see over and over here: assuming that the US is the world, or that problems in the US mean that civilization as a whole is unraveling.
Compare:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s Detroit Crumbles, China Emerges as Auto Epicenter
America's auto titans are dismantling their global empires. But across the Pacific, it's as if the global economic forces that have pummeled Detroit never struck. Chinese auto sales are up, and this year China is projected to displace Japan as the world's largest car producer.
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Collapse of the auto industry
Collapse of the auto industry
by JohnDenver » Sun 23 Aug 2009, 19:33:45
On the whole, I think it's fair to say that this group is very insular and America-centric, and I believe this distorts the interpretation of peak oil. Think about it: most of the harsh effects usually attributed to peak oil are almost entirely American -- collapse of automakers, foreclosure crisis, ballooning foreign debt, collapse of banks etc. Why is it that peak oil is so selective? It seems very odd, and makes me think that the problem lies in America itself, not peak oil per se.
The default argument here is that peak oil is causing world crisis because problems are occurring in the US, and the US is the world.
I would argue for another interpretation: the US is a tired superpower whose model is failing, and it is being supplanted by younger, hungrier rivals such as China, India and Islam. This is an age old story, and very similar to how the UK supplanted Spain and the Dutch, or how the US supplanted the UK when their models began to wane, a la Paul Kennedy and The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.
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Re: Collapse of the auto industry
by TheDude » Sun 23 Aug 2009, 19:36:44
Chinese property sales are up 60% in the first 7 months of '09, too. Real Estate Intelligence Service:NAREDCO: 60% jump in China property sales to fuel realty bubble Soon we'll be exporting them granite for their countertops...
Last edited by TheDude on Sun 23 Aug 2009, 21:16:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Collapse of the auto industry
by diemos » Sun 23 Aug 2009, 20:50:47
Perhaps it hits the US hardest because the US is the largest per capita user of oil.
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Re: Collapse of the auto industry
by coyote » Sun 23 Aug 2009, 21:11:48
I'm sure you noticed how the collapse of the American financial markets reverberated across the globe. The sun will set on America as the sole superpower, it's practically a certainty of history - but for now at least, what happens to us happens to the world.
However, it's a two-way street: other parts of the world have already experienced issues of resource depletion, climate change and economic ruination, that we here in the U.S. will not experience until later. What happens to us happens to all, but in the end what is happening to all will happen to us. Globalization gave the first world the illusion of being in control, but it is only a temporary insulation from the storm growing outside, a storm of our own conjuring. The poor are outside, banging on the bolted gates, and we're inside, and in the end it won't matter: the walls will come down, and we'll all either find a new way or go down with the old.
America's days as a superpower are numbered. Will there be another after us?
However, it's a two-way street: other parts of the world have already experienced issues of resource depletion, climate change and economic ruination, that we here in the U.S. will not experience until later. What happens to us happens to all, but in the end what is happening to all will happen to us. Globalization gave the first world the illusion of being in control, but it is only a temporary insulation from the storm growing outside, a storm of our own conjuring. The poor are outside, banging on the bolted gates, and we're inside, and in the end it won't matter: the walls will come down, and we'll all either find a new way or go down with the old.
America's days as a superpower are numbered. Will there be another after us?
Lord, here comes the flood
We'll say goodbye to flesh and blood
If again the seas are silent in any still alive
It'll be those who gave their island to survive...
We'll say goodbye to flesh and blood
If again the seas are silent in any still alive
It'll be those who gave their island to survive...
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Re: Collapse of the auto industry
by JohnDenver » Mon 24 Aug 2009, 00:54:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diemos', 'P')erhaps it hits the US hardest because the US is the largest per capita user of oil.
Yes, that's certainly part of it.
On the other hand, consider this data point:
Only 25% of students in Detroit graduate from high school. Link
I don't believe high oil prices have anything at all to do with the above statistic. Lowering gas to $1.00 a gallon isn't going to affect the graduation rate.
But it's a critical parameter when you're trying to run an auto industry. How can you have state-of-the-art auto manufacturing and high employment/wages in a city where 75% of young people only have a junior high school education?
It's factors like these that make me think that the problems of the US auto industry go much deeper than peak oil.
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Re: Collapse of the auto industry
by IslandCrow » Mon 24 Aug 2009, 01:53:05
JD I agree with you that this site has a major US bias...
As a European I find it interesting that the defining historic reference for a crash in the Peak Oil world is the Great Depression.
Almost no consideration is given to how people in Europe coped with the disaster of World War II, with its much greater distruction and death rate as well as disruption of trade, farming, AND OIL SUPPLIES. There are probably many lessons in surviving crises that are being lost because Peak Oil people are so US-centred.
I would have thought that WWII would fit far more into image of the doomer world - it is much closer to the Zoombie bands, and it is more recent in time us than the Great Depression. If one wants a better doomer situation to study then I would recommend looking at places like the Ukraine at the time of the Russian revolution, which had bands of Anarchists bent on revenge and distruction as well as the Reds and Whites fighting, then add in several epidemics, and mass starvation due to means of farming being destroyed (ie all the horses taken).
I am also sure that Asian history could add a lot, but I don't know enough about it to contribute meaningfully to discussions here, as well as the collapse of several American civilazations before the white man with his fire stick arrived.
As a European I find it interesting that the defining historic reference for a crash in the Peak Oil world is the Great Depression.
Almost no consideration is given to how people in Europe coped with the disaster of World War II, with its much greater distruction and death rate as well as disruption of trade, farming, AND OIL SUPPLIES. There are probably many lessons in surviving crises that are being lost because Peak Oil people are so US-centred.
I would have thought that WWII would fit far more into image of the doomer world - it is much closer to the Zoombie bands, and it is more recent in time us than the Great Depression. If one wants a better doomer situation to study then I would recommend looking at places like the Ukraine at the time of the Russian revolution, which had bands of Anarchists bent on revenge and distruction as well as the Reds and Whites fighting, then add in several epidemics, and mass starvation due to means of farming being destroyed (ie all the horses taken).
I am also sure that Asian history could add a lot, but I don't know enough about it to contribute meaningfully to discussions here, as well as the collapse of several American civilazations before the white man with his fire stick arrived.
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Re: Collapse of the auto industry
by Pops » Mon 24 Aug 2009, 08:01:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IslandCrow', 'I') am also sure that Asian history could add a lot, but I don't know enough about it to contribute meaningfully to discussions here,
I'm sure that's the reason Americans don't talk about Europe much.
...
Of course oil price has much too do with auto mfgrs problems, it did in the '70s when I'm sure they laughed at VW, Honda and Datsun, they clammed up for a while and Iococa begged for a bailout but then laughed even harder when oil was $15 bbl in the '90s - I can't see a reason a three year run up in fuel prices wouldn't have hurt them this time.
I'm not saying they were victims, they were building what US buyers wanted and no one else was making - big suburban assault vehicles.
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-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Collapse of the auto industry
by dorlomin » Mon 24 Aug 2009, 08:31:18
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')I would argue for another interpretation: the US is a tired superpower whose model is failing, and it is being supplanted by younger, hungrier rivals such as China, India and Islam. This is an age old story, and very similar to how the UK supplanted Spain and the Dutch, or how the US supplanted the UK when their models began to wane, a la Paul Kennedy and The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.
')I would argue for another interpretation: the US is a tired superpower whose model is failing, and it is being supplanted by younger, hungrier rivals such as China, India and Islam. This is an age old story, and very similar to how the UK supplanted Spain and the Dutch, or how the US supplanted the UK when their models began to wane, a la Paul Kennedy and The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.
Nope. I dont think the US is being replaced yet. Certainly not from a millitary perspective. From an economic one, the world is so dependent on US shoppers, that other nations 'rise' is merely getting a bigger chunk of the US consumer pie. If they US goes, the pie goes to.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Island Crow', 'I') would have thought that WWII would fit far more into image of the doomer world - it is much closer to the Zoombie bands
But yep, WWII is an excellent example of how, when people to their will to it, they can re-engineer society to deal with the unthinkable. Before WWII it was assumed that the twin engine bomber fleets would be enough to create mass panic in the civilian populations. One people were able to adjust to the threat they were able to maintain production under helling bombing.
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