It's best I quote James K. Galbraith of the Austin Oil Peak Colloquium, the full interview for which may be found at:
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/INTERV ... GALBRAITH/
Galbraith also addresses other economic issues as a result of peak oil. He is a Professor of Economics at the University of Texas.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')omebody's going to have to cut their consumption. It seems to me likely, that that somebody won't, in the present state of the World economy, be us. At least not to the most substantial extent.
That is to say, oil is priced in dollars. And it's very possible, that the price of oil in dollars can be held reasonably constant, meaning that the American consumer may not notice this situation or be impacted by it very substantially for quite some time to come.
How will the diminished quantity of oil then be rationed? By a fall in price of everybody else's currencies. By the currenices of many other countries, in particular developing countries, which will then find the dollar price of their oil, much higher. And will not be able to consume.
This is again a situation which you can see a constitency for in the United States but it's not a wise global public policy because it implies a major blockage to the process of economic development in this world. And it implies that a great part of the rest of the world will undergo hardships which will increase the separation between them and us, and therefore the potential for conflict.
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Clearing up the economic effects of depletion
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Clearing up the economic effects of depletion
by Markos101 » Tue 14 Sep 2004, 19:49:07
So when peak occurs, the US consumer might not notice it - but look out for a devaluing of other world currencies against the dollar as a sign of decline in world oil supply. That should be the economic signifier.
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Re: Clearing up the economic effects of depletion
by MonteQuest » Wed 15 Sep 2004, 00:03:55
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Markos101', 'I')t's best I quote James K. Galbraith of the Austin Oil Peak Colloquium, the full interview for which may be found at:
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/INTERV ... GALBRAITH/
Galbraith also addresses other economic issues as a result of peak oil. He is a Professor of Economics at the University of Texas.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')omebody's going to have to cut their consumption. It seems to me likely, that that somebody won't, in the present state of the World economy, be us. At least not to the most substantial extent.
That is to say, oil is priced in dollars. And it's very possible, that the price of oil in dollars can be held reasonably constant, meaning that the American consumer may not notice this situation or be impacted by it very substantially for quite some time to come.
How will the diminished quantity of oil then be rationed? By a fall in price of everybody else's currencies. By the currenices of many other countries, in particular developing countries, which will then find the dollar price of their oil, much higher. And will not be able to consume.
This is again a situation which you can see a constitency for in the United States but it's not a wise global public policy because it implies a major blockage to the process of economic development in this world. And it implies that a great part of the rest of the world will undergo hardships which will increase the separation between them and us, and therefore the potential for conflict.
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/INTERV ... GALBRAITH/
Galbraith also addresses other economic issues as a result of peak oil. He is a Professor of Economics at the University of Texas.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')omebody's going to have to cut their consumption. It seems to me likely, that that somebody won't, in the present state of the World economy, be us. At least not to the most substantial extent.
That is to say, oil is priced in dollars. And it's very possible, that the price of oil in dollars can be held reasonably constant, meaning that the American consumer may not notice this situation or be impacted by it very substantially for quite some time to come.
How will the diminished quantity of oil then be rationed? By a fall in price of everybody else's currencies. By the currenices of many other countries, in particular developing countries, which will then find the dollar price of their oil, much higher. And will not be able to consume.
This is again a situation which you can see a constitency for in the United States but it's not a wise global public policy because it implies a major blockage to the process of economic development in this world. And it implies that a great part of the rest of the world will undergo hardships which will increase the separation between them and us, and therefore the potential for conflict.
So when peak occurs, the US consumer might not notice it - but look out for a devaluing of other world currencies against the dollar as a sign of decline in world oil supply. That should be the economic signifier.
Markos, Is he saying because of our petro dollar/trade deficit advantage, this will cause other currencies pegged to the dollar to decline? Not following the mechanism.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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MonteQuest - Expert
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by Markos101 » Wed 15 Sep 2004, 06:43:44
Hi MonteQuest,
He's saying this because the dollar is the reserve currency, and this will happen as long as people accept dollars as the reserve currency and hold reserves of dollars.
Mark
He's saying this because the dollar is the reserve currency, and this will happen as long as people accept dollars as the reserve currency and hold reserves of dollars.
Mark
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by lowem » Wed 15 Sep 2004, 08:52:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Markos101', 'H')e's saying this because the dollar is the reserve currency, and this will happen as long as people accept dollars as the reserve currency and hold reserves of dollars.
Hmm. What happens when the oil-producing countries switch to, say, the Euro? Including Russia? With the central banks getting into the act as well. Will USA invade all of them? They have enough trouble holding Iraq as it is.
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