[pup55]

Here's a bonus graph for you. I put it in a separate thread for tracking China supply and demand data as it comes in.

The average growth rate for china's demand over the last 7 years is about 7.5%, remarkably low considering their supposed economic growth.Their oil production growth rate is about 1.7%. If they keep that same trajectory, they will be using as much as the US by 2020, and importing practically all of it.

On top of this, with five times the poplulation of the US, their per-capita consumption will still only be 1/5 that of the US.

Also, their domestic reserves as currently stated are only 16 gb, which means that at any time, they could go into decline, unless they are really efficient and find some more oil. If my calculation is right, they will be 50% depleted by 2012 and if Hubbert is right, their domestic fields will go into decline at that time.

Somebody is going to have to do without oil.

[rockdoc123]

Here's an interesting bit of stats I dug up.

CNPC, the largest of the Chinese companies in 2000 had no operations outside of China but by end 2005 they were in 27 foreign countries and had producing assets in 7 countries. They also had refinery operations in a couple of countries and had entered into a pipeline arrangement to bring oil from Kazachstan to China overland through the Tarim basin area of W. China. At end 2005 CNPC's domestic production was ~ 741 MMB (2 MMB/d) whereas their International production was ~200 MMB (0.6 MMB/d).
To my mind this is astounding growth in such a short period of time, and from what I have seen they have no intention of stopping. There are a number of largish discoveries that haven't been brought on stream yet so the International side of the production will continue to rise.

An interesting addition is the business model that CNPC uses. They have a number of subsidiary companies like Greater Wall drilling and Chinese National Logging Company and BGP seismic company that provide a variety of wellfield and exploration services. By setting up these subs in the various countries they can capture money at all ends of the petroleum chain which effectively makes them very difficult to compete with as their net costs are much lower than potential competitors.

[sirrom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'T')he average growth rate for china's demand over the last 7 years is about 7.5%, remarkably low considering their supposed economic growth.Their oil production growth rate is about 1.7%. If they keep that same trajectory, they will be using as much as the US by 2020, and importing practically all of it.

[galacticsurfer]

Chinese coal probably also hitting a peak at 3.6 billion tonnes per year or going straight up. Total suppöy at 70 billion tonnes will be gone by 2020-2027 depending on if a slow decline sets in soon (hubbert peak)or they keep climbing till exhaustion.



Imports will be needed to keep up economic growth targets with a declining coal base.






Total electrical generating capacity cannot be replaced with coal and nukles and renewables.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/China/Electricity.html

[TheDude]

Nice graphs, surfer.

[galacticsurfer]

According to EIA table 923.8 million tonnes per year in coal exports annually. Chinese take 100 million tonnes. 1/6 of world coal is traded.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/table8_mst.pdf

Chinese generating capacity cannot keep growing at this pace of 10% per year from coal. They will within two to three years of their own peak in coal production have to take all global coal exports for their home market, killing the global trade. Otherwise they could switch to natgas/LNG from Russia, Qatar, Angola, etc. Nukes/renewables and hydro won't be able to take up the slack fast enough, maybe fill some holes even if they expand at an enormous pace($100 billion investment in renewables annually and dozens of nukes sounds like a good try buut is surely not enough although I haven't run the numbers) .

They will be doing the same in uraniium, natgas/LNG and coal and rare earths for alt energy that they are starting to do for spare oil exports, create competition and drive up the prices sky high.

Car sales in China are at 1.72 million / month in March or 20.64 million per year and climbing- double last year's pace. 50 million cars in China will double in two years to 100 million cars, increasing oil demand globally. If there are 800 million cars now then the Chinese can make 100 million more for first time buyers (not just replacement) in 4 years or less then we have a high gowth in absolute global numbers in automobiles of over 10%.

Atogether Chinese growth is like a mad elephant running head on into a brick wall. 2-5 years till they crash their system and the global one too.