Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 07 Dec 2006, 02:05:20

Here's another in the never-ending production of peakoil papers from the top. Two more are coming next year, one from the GAO.

Council on Foreign Relations Report of an Independent Task Force
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Council on Foreign Relations established an Independent Task Force to examine the consequences of dependence on imported energy for U.S. foreign policy. Since the United States both consumes and imports more oil than any other country, the Task Force has concentrated its deliberations on matters of petroleum. In so doing, it reaches a sobering but inescapable judgment: the lack of sustained attention to energy issues is undercutting U.S. foreign policy and national security.

The Task Force goes on to argue that U.S. energy policy has been plagued by myths, such as the feasibility of achieving ‘‘energy independence’’ through increased drilling or anything else. For the next few decades, the challenge facing the United States is to become better equipped to manage its dependencies rather than pursue the chimera of independence.


It also addresses some widely touted solution myths. Here's #1:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')yth #1: The United States can be energy independent.

No, because liquid fuels are essential to the nation’s transportation system. Barring draconian measures, the United States will depend on imported oil for a significant fraction of its transportation fuel needs for at least several decades.


And, like the Hirsch Report, it acknowledges that the transition will involve decades.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is important to recognize that in most cases, change will be slow. The enormous magnitude of equipment and facilities that comprise the energy supply and demand systemimplies that even once technologies begin to be adopted, full replacement of the existing facilities will take several decades.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll told, an incremental approach to the challenge—as advocated in this report—will not be adequate.


I will look for more nuggets when I have time to review it in depth.

Link to pdf file
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby aahala » Thu 07 Dec 2006, 12:07:34

I wish every politican and talking head could be required to
read and repeat on their sound bites some of the cited paragraphs
of this report.

"Energy independence" is becoming the new buzz term. I have
yet to hear a single speaker of it to furnish any details as to the
nature, or extent of the problem or the list of painful policies
necessary to EVER achieve it.

BTW, does anyone know the last time the US was not a net
oil importer? I have yet to find any figures on the subject prior
to 1949.
User avatar
aahala
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 944
Joined: Thu 03 Feb 2005, 04:00:00

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby Frank » Mon 18 Dec 2006, 09:08:34

I always thought (assumed) we exported until circa 1970...
User avatar
Frank
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 556
Joined: Wed 15 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Maine/Nova Scotia

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 19 Dec 2006, 06:39:56

"Energy security" seems to be another buzz-phrase. The New Zealand government's new energy policy was released recently and contains that phrase, as do articles reporting it. However, it still seems to be believed that non-renewables can be part of the answer to achieving energy security. Although renewables are encouraged, they aren't mandated, even though "energy security" is paramount. In reports, we had energy company chiefs reiterating the phrase in explaining some of their non-renewables projects.

Energy security is not possible as long as you are reliant on non-renewables.
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby slick » Thu 21 Dec 2006, 13:32:51

The amusing thing about the current situation is that everyone, and I mean everyone, every top politician, is talking about this issue behind the scenes, but there is such a strong sense of the need not to "panic the horses" that not much is coming out in public, except when they make little slips.
slick
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 113
Joined: Tue 18 Jul 2006, 03:00:00

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby RdSnt » Sat 23 Dec 2006, 21:53:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll told, an incremental approach to the challenge—as advocated in this report—will not be adequate.


Link to pdf file


It's a rare thing to have a report that is so honest as to say that their own recommendations are a complete crock.
Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.
User avatar
RdSnt
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed 02 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Canada
Top

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sun 24 Dec 2006, 09:40:56

Hm, nice finding but It is instructive to read the whole report because they sure write/say things that make a lot of sense.

Top of page 32:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Consumers and businesses want energy services, such as transportation, lighting, and air-conditioning.

The implication is that the service and not how it is rendered it is important (strike against simplistic views about the role of energy and EROEI (has to be even marginally > 1) in generation of such services)


(page 31):
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The need to reduce imports of oil in the United States and to better
balance the world oil market leads naturally to the following five
policy objectives:
• Increase efficiency of oil and gas use;
• Switch from oil-derived products to alternatives;
• Encourage supply of oil from sources outside the Persian Gulf;
• Make the oil and gas infrastructure more efficient and secure; and
• Increase investment in new energy technologies.


(page 32)
Simply excellent ...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')However, the lowest cost option from the perspective of energy users may not be the lowest cost option from the perspective of the United States when broader considerations such as energy security, environmental externalities, and long-term welfare are included.
Thus, the United States should adopt policies that encourage consumers and businesses to use less oil and other forms of energy while still obtaining the energy services they need


Under the section of alternatives ... the following are mentioned: biofuels (ethanol/diesel), plug-in hybrids and the GODZILLA that will spread mayhem and mental suffering in the hard core doomer/dieoffer population centers :
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Thus, nuclear power, among other electric power supply options, offers an important long-term pathway to displacing oil as a transportation fuel.
[smilie=adora.gif]

A realistic appraisal of the current R&D situation in the US (page 37):
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')However, the Task Force is critical of the continuing U.S.
federal RD&D effort; it is fragmented, unfocused, and tries to be all
things to all people.


And the punchlines keep coming ...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')One measure would reduce the growth in demand for gasoline
over time: a substantial federal excise tax on gasoline.
( page 37 )

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Asecond measurewould tighten and reform the CorporateAverage
Fuel Economy rules.
( page 38 )

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The third option would be to place a cap on gasoline consumption
and adopt a system of tradable vouchers.
( page 38 )

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The protectionist $0.54 per gallon tariff on imported ethanol
should be removed.
( page 39 )

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The Task Force believes that the United States should make
greater use of nuclear power.
(page 40 .. their recommendation is fully justified IMHO)

Read the additional view section too ... it includes gems like the following sentence :
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Most gravely, oil consumers are in effect financing both sides of the war on terrorism.

I will leave the recommendation sections about the Foreign Relations alone for now ... does not really call for resource wars, quite the contrary.
But why do people emphasize the slowness of the "switch-over" process? It took more than 150 years to build the present O&G infrastructure, so why should the change happen overnight? Where is the evidence that such a rapid transition is required?
Merry Xmas
"Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
User avatar
EnergySpin
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2248
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 24 Dec 2006, 16:36:14

Hmm. I haven't read the report but, from the quotes given here, does this seem like a good characterisation?

The American way of life is not negotiable. All the energy services that Americans want (though the report says "need") can be provided by using a mix of energy sources. Implication is that these "needs" can be met indefinitely. Reduce oil consumption but there is no need to remove it completely. If the US can't produce all the ethanol it "needs" remove trade barriers to getting it from elsewhere (with the implication that the world can produce all it needs indefinitely). Nuclear power is renewable (that is the implication of a recommendation to increase the dependence on nuclear).

I didn't notice a quote about actually making do with less energy in future and there appears to be no realisation that the only energy security is in using renewable energy at or below the rate of renewal. Is there such a realisation in the report?

Tony
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby greenworm » Sun 24 Dec 2006, 17:03:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Council has no affiliation with the US government


That is the line where I stopped reading this disinfo campaign since it is completely false.
User avatar
greenworm
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 862
Joined: Fri 27 Jan 2006, 04:00:00
Top

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby EnergySpin » Sun 24 Dec 2006, 19:21:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')
I didn't notice a quote about actually making do with less energy in future and there appears to be no realisation that the only energy security is in using renewable energy at or below the rate of renewal. Is there such a realisation in the report?

Tony

Actually efficiency is a way to make more with less ... and the need to provide for transportation by driving less is also covered extensively.
"Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
User avatar
EnergySpin
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2248
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 24 Dec 2006, 19:30:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') didn't notice a quote about actually making do with less energy in future and there appears to be no realisation that the only energy security is in using renewable energy at or below the rate of renewal. Is there such a realisation in the report?

Tony
Actually efficiency is a way to make more with less ... and the need to provide for transportation by driving less is also covered extensively.
Not if efficiency is jut a way to continue the party. Eventually, you end up using more. And, from the quotes you gave, efficiency only applied to petroleum use. That's no good long term.

Tony
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Top

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby Kingcoal » Sun 24 Dec 2006, 19:48:12

When I read stuff like this I can't help but wonder what life would be like today had Gore won the 2000 election. Both Bush’s' have undone a lot of the environmental and conservation standards which were put in place during the Nixon/Ford/Carter administrations. The entire Bush family is a disgrace and will be remembered by future generations that way. I can see myself with my Grandchildren in 20 years lamenting about these times.
"That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
User avatar
Kingcoal
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2149
Joined: Wed 29 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Pennsylvania, USA

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby 128shot » Fri 02 Mar 2007, 15:00:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('greenworm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Council has no affiliation with the US government


That is the line where I stopped reading this disinfo campaign since it is completely false.



Well, do you believe in planned parenthood or IPCC?

Its commonplace to lobby yourself on Washington, doesn't make this a disinformation campaign, its actually shockingly honest.
User avatar
128shot
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 303
Joined: Wed 18 Jan 2006, 04:00:00
Top

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby HonestPessimist » Sun 11 Mar 2007, 09:28:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'W')hen I read stuff like this I can't help but wonder what life would be like today had Gore won the 2000 election.


Very bad things, like he would let economic depression to happen in the USA in order to force drastic changes to achieve his environmentalist goals and to accomplish the great global warming swindle upon the American people. If he has everything his way, he would reverse his predecessor's decision on the Kyoto Protocols and force the Congress to ratify it without the public consensus.

More scientists, once defending human-induced global warming studies, are questioning the extreme political and scientific implications out of global warming debates and policies. The recent International Climate Change report that came out last January is nothing but a governmental policy cookbook for mass human depopulation of the planet.
:-x
User avatar
HonestPessimist
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 404
Joined: Fri 25 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 11 Mar 2007, 14:19:35

No, the report that came out in February is a consensus document (and, as such, very conservative) from 2,500 climate scientists about the changes already seen and coming in the climate, and the highly likely causes. How people choose to respond is up to them.

Depression is coming whether we like it or not. It sounds as if you are in complete denial about both PO and climate change. Hard decisions need to be taken; it sounds like you don't want to contemplate those decisions.
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby dmtu » Mon 12 Mar 2007, 01:34:27

Anyone who suckles at the teat of the CFR should have a look at the elitist membership and think about what they really stand for. Need an example? Listen to the evil A$$es cackle as Cheney stands proudly and admits to his LIES.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdxLYuvvbgs

These are the people who keep you enslaved through debt, who promote Real ID, and embrace Socialism. As you watch your freedoms erode and rant about the abuses Bush has levied against you, just remember these are the people who tell Bush what to do. They probably tell that drooling idiot which end he needs to wipe.
You observed it from the start
Now you’re a million miles apart
As we bleed another nation
So you can watch you favorite station
Now you eyes pop out your sockets
Dirty hands and empty pockets
Who? You!
c.o.c.
dmtu
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 538
Joined: Sun 04 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Western US

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby funzone36 » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 22:38:09

Video is removed. And wrong, it's Americans themselves who are willing to go into massive debts, get real ID and not care about freedoms. And no, it's the State Department that tells the executive government what to do, not the CFR. They might have the influence but so do Americans. Americans, for the most part, do not give a care much about these issues while you keep reading conspiracy theories. You might as well say that I work for the government. It's people like you who largely doesn't care about the accuracy of conspiracy theories. Keep entertaining yourself.
Lastly, since when did Americans had full freedoms? Since when did Americans did not need to give up privacy during various applications?
User avatar
funzone36
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 178
Joined: Sun 04 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

Re: CFR-National Security Consequences of US Oil Dependency

Unread postby Fiddlerdave » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 02:23:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HonestPessimist', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'W')hen I read stuff like this I can't help but wonder what life would be like today had Gore won the 2000 election.


Very bad things, like he would let economic depression to happen in the USA in order to force drastic changes to achieve his environmentalist goals and to accomplish the great global warming swindle upon the American people. If he has everything his way, he would reverse his predecessor's decision on the Kyoto Protocols and force the Congress to ratify it without the public consensus. ....
:-x
Which incidently, would have made great progress towards stopping the transfer of money from the USA to multinational energy companies and the ME.

Instead of what did happen, letting economic collapse happen by allowing drastic ripoff and wealth transfer to his financial and corporate base, while our energy consumption and dependence grew by unbridled leaps and bounds.

Oh, yeah, we are waaay better off. :roll:
User avatar
Fiddlerdave
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 582
Joined: Sun 18 Mar 2007, 03:00:00
Top


Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron