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can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby Plantagenet » Mon 22 Jun 2009, 22:54:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunny', '.')... the cost of actually making the the oil.. or coal.. ie trap the solar energy in biomass and then subject to astronomical inputs of more energy in the form of pressure and heat. If the oil companies actually "made" oil it'd be worth a million bucks a litre.

Mick.


Nope.

Oil companies and agri-business commonly trap solar energy in biomass and then refine it to produce fuel right now. For instance, corn is grown in the US and converted to ethanol and added to gasoline in cars, while sugar cane is grown in Brazil and converted to fuel, and Palm Oil is harvested in places like Indonesia and New Guinea and converted to something that can replace gasoline. When I was in New Guinea in 2007 I flew to a remote area on the north coast with some Australian scientists. We visited a Palm Oil plantation and saw the primitive refinery that powered the local area and drove around in old buses powered by the Palm oil "gasoline." The gas stations outside of town consisted of people sitting beside the road with a few old milk bottles or bleach bottles filled with palm oil gasoline....you'd stop at a shack by the beach and buy a bleach bottle re-filled with refined palm oil fuel, and just pour it in your gas tank. The price of the palm oil "gasoline" was similar to the cost of gasoline back in Rabul.

Nope...it didn't cost a million bucks a litre.

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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby mos6507 » Mon 22 Jun 2009, 23:13:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I knew you would say that. There is always another bullsh@t explanation, before, during, and after the fact and a million reasons why things don't work and it is always open to debate


I was tracking the housing bubble about as long as I have peak oil, digesting the news as it happened. I was reading the Housing Panic blog, not just relying on the MSM that was fanning the flames of the housing boom with shit like this:

Image

So I feel qualified to render an opinion on the cause and effects in this case. I'm not going to render an opinion on historical events that I haven't studied enough. Consequently, I am not going to be swayed by a single graph.

I really don't give a damn if I'm the only one here won refuses to say "$147 oil caused the credit crisis". I call it like I see it and I'm not going to change my opinion just because it's in the minority. I will restate my case anytime anyone here (or indirectly referenced ala Orlov, Heinberg, or Rubin) makes the claim.



Oh, and BTW, for those of you who are shocked that I'm bashing the MSM. I bash them all the time for things they have no clue about such as bubbles and (non global warming-related) doom. I just don't follow the tinfoil party line about them being active co-conspirators for the illuminati--except maybe for FoxNews and AM talk radio.
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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby Nefarious » Mon 22 Jun 2009, 23:26:57

I wouldn't mind seeing a graph that correlated the number of home loan defaults with the oil price spike. How many defaults 3 months before the spike to 3 months after the spike. Then look at what the average default percentage was since the conception of the new greenspan loans and see if the average stays the same until the spike hit or if it was steadily on the rise before the spike.
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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby dunny » Mon 22 Jun 2009, 23:51:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunny', '.')... the cost of actually making the the oil.. or coal.. ie trap the solar energy in biomass and then subject to astronomical inputs of more energy in the form of pressure and heat. If the oil companies actually "made" oil it'd be worth a million bucks a litre.

Mick.


Nope.

Oil companies and agri-business commonly trap solar energy in biomass and then refine it to produce fuel right now.


Nope. The process you are describing has nothing to do with how oil and coal were formed matey. :)

I think odegaards still right... it's the same as a Uranium producer... they are selling an energy store that needed the energy INPUT from an exploding star to actually be 'made'.

Mick.


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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby Plantagenet » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 00:59:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunny', ' ')The process you are describing has nothing to do with how oil and coal were formed



Of course not. That wasn't what you asked about, matey. I'm just showing that it is possible to trap solar energy in biomass (Palm nuts), refine the palm nuts under pressure and heat, and produce a usuable fuel that only costs a couple of bucks or so per liter, not the million bucks a liter that you suggested. :roll:

Image
First, find a corrupt 3rd world country that will let you destroy the pristine Rain Forest to plant a palm nut plantation. Then.....
Step one: Grow the palm nuts, storing solar energy in biomass.
Step two: Refine the nut oil into diesel fuel.
Step three: Run your diesel car on diesel gasoline refined from Palm oil.
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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby IslandCrow » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 01:21:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Which brings up a good question: what will people forego to afford $200/bbl oil?



This gets to the heart of the matter.

From what I have read I am coming to the conclusion that when talking about oil prices we need to include the amount of oil in the equation to get the total spent on oil.

I do not believe that $200/bbl oil will be affordable at the current rate of production (excluding sudden and rapid inflation), However, I have not ruled out oil getting to $200/bbl, in which case a significantly smaller amount of oil would be affordable.

This leads me to ask myself "what am I doing to reduce my consumption of oil?"
We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 01:28:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Makes my point either way; demand from some source will keep prices high.


Unless you have a respite due to a once-in-a-blue-moon global recession caused by a comedy of errors ponzi scheme that causes demand to dip across the entire globe.


Then all you have to do is wait a bit for the population, thus demand, to grow.
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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby odegaard » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 02:29:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Which brings up a good question: what will people forego to afford $200/bbl oil?
answer:
Image

If I have to pay more for gasoline --> I cut back on Starbucks --> somebody losses their job --> that's 1 less person driving a car to work --> that reduces the demand for oil and thus puts a cap on prices.

How high is this cap? I don't know.
Perhaps a more important question is how many jobs can be sustained and NOT how high can oil go? :wink:
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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby mos6507 » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 03:02:55

There is such tremendous fat to be cut it's not even funny. If you want to see what people do when they lose their jobs, ask around at all your unemployed friends. Ask them how they are getting by. Odds are they aren't in a tent city looking like around for Sally Struthers. They are crashing with buddies or family. How far can that go? Look at an illegal immigrant household, 10 people in a 1BR apartment, all of them working sporadic sub-minimum wage jobs. Yes, it reaches a point of diminishing returns, but it can go pretty damn far before the malthusian die off sets in. Conservation in the form of forced poverty works just as well in making the most of a limited resource as deliberate powerdown.
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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby wisconsin_cur » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 03:14:16

But how long before people get fed up and burn something down? Respond to a charismatic leader? Scapegoat "the other"?

The United States is a pretty entitled bunch, living ten families to a house is for other people, the people we hire to fix our toilets it is not for us. And those lower on the food chain. The privlidged will demand to be heard and will cry for blood.

How long before long grudges come back to the surface? I drove through an unfamilar part of St. Paul/Minneapolis last week. I drove by a lot of very expensive houses and condos. Crossed the bridge into Minneapolis and the community was not revitalized. Those who can afford expensive fuel are only 300 yards away from those who cannot. When one group is giving up their latte, the other is giving up eating. I wonder how long that will last?

Sure there is a lot of "fat" to trim. The problem is the fat has a name and a family and a sense of self-respect, a sense of entitlement, they have emotions, and they have firearms. This is not an economic problem, it is a people problem. You can make the economics work as long as people act like abandoned factories and go quietly into the night but they are not and they will not.

Only a fool pretends that they will.

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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby hironegro » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 04:24:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('odegaard', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '.')..
i' ve been kicking the idea around that perhaps past historical examples all owe their ultimate cause to running up against some resource constraint. the dfference in past being that we simply had to move on to other sources of easy to pluck resources. i have nothing concrete to back that up, though, but i do think it's an interesting perspective to take.
...

Cornucopians like to state that the stone age did not end because we ran out of stones.
That is technically true but......

stone age --> bronze age --> iron --> steel --> the age of plastics

Do you see a pattern here? Every transition phase happened because we found something bigger and better. A material that had superior qualities then the previous: either stronger, lighter, easier to machine, or more versatile.

Now if somebody were to discover a new energy source that has double the energy density and half the cost of crude oil and you can carry it around in a 1 gallon jug container just as easily as you can carry a bottle of water then yeah I guess we can declare that peak oil has been defeated.
and then we can shut down this website and ALL of us would have to go find a new hobby aside from talking about doom and gloom!

Unfortunately every "alternative energy" idea that has been placed on the table is an inferior replacement to oil.
It either has half the energy density, twice the cost, you can't carry it around in a 1 gallon jug container: wind power, solar power, nuclear power --> blah blah blah
Humanity has demonstrated plenty of times an ability to technologically advance by upgrading to a superior material.
however....
There has NEVER been an example of an *uplifting moment* for a society that had to downgrade to an inferior material or resource. NEVER


Yes, very very cheap energy will come through on advances in G.N.R..
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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby mos6507 » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 05:12:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '
')Sure there is a lot of "fat" to trim. The problem is the fat has a name and a family and a sense of self-respect, a sense of entitlement, they have emotions, and they have firearms. This is not an economic problem, it is a people problem. You can make the economics work as long as people act like abandoned factories and go quietly into the night but they are not and they will not.

Only a fool pretends that they will.


A slight tangent here, but I have to share a recent anecdote...

The ironies of peak oil never cease to amaze me. The location of transition towns is what bugs the sh*t out of me right now. One of them is located in Newburyport, MA. Now, I don't know about the whole town, but it sure as hell seems like a blue-blood posh neighborhood to me. It even has a glossy magazine dedicated to it. Nevertheless, on Sunday I was there for my uncle's wedding and the family he's marrying into, well, they're probably the last people on earth to be worrying about the price of gasoline or a loaf of bread. (If they ever read this, it's nothing personal. They know not what they do.) Newburyport has to be a transition town due to liberal ideology, not economic necessity. As long as that's the case, I think preps are doomed to failure. What sense of urgency can one maintain for preps when you're that loaded? I was tempted to bring up the fact that Newburyport is a Transition Town at the wedding but raising the spectre of soylent green while eating chocolate covered strawberries just seems a little pointless, ya know? The town I'm living in is almost as extreme.

It does kind of demonstrate what I'm talking about as far as the fat being there to cut. That IS a form of protection from the early stages of peak oil. At least here in NE people by and large don't have guns so I don't think these latte liberals are going to go on a shooting rampage because $200 oil means they have to sell off their BMWs. It will take until the latter stages of collapse for the playing field to level itself out more until the neighbors exit their McMansions looking for brainz. It's just that with that wealth comes complacency. Rearranging the deck chairs of the Titanic, as it were.

I don't want to be so cynical that I will categorically write off these people but it's really hard to see them adapting, so much so that I've really kept my doomerism on a low key despite the backyard garden. I just don't know whether I'm going to "come out" to the block this summer or keep the garden firmly buried under plausible deniability. I could call the mayor up and try to draft a mitigation plan. Why bother? The people here might possibly be liberal intellectual enough to get the message, but just too rich to feel the urgency to act.

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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby hillsidedigger » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 08:16:13

Currently I would guess one third of the world's people cannot afford $20 per barrel oil.

The middle third can't afford $60 per barrel oil.

The top 2% might be able to afford $200 per barrel oil but that's all.
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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby odegaard » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 13:16:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'B')ut how long before people get fed up and burn something down? Respond to a charismatic leader? Scapegoat "the other"?

The United States is a pretty entitled bunch, living ten families to a house is for other people, the people we hire to fix our toilets it is not for us. And those lower on the food chain. The privlidged will demand to be heard and will cry for blood.

How long before long grudges come back to the surface? I drove through an unfamilar part of St. Paul/Minneapolis last week. I drove by a lot of very expensive houses and condos. Crossed the bridge into Minneapolis and the community was not revitalized. Those who can afford expensive fuel are only 300 yards away from those who cannot. When one group is giving up their latte, the other is giving up eating. I wonder how long that will last?

Sure there is a lot of "fat" to trim. The problem is the fat has a name and a family and a sense of self-respect, a sense of entitlement, they have emotions, and they have firearms. This is not an economic problem, it is a people problem. You can make the economics work as long as people act like abandoned factories and go quietly into the night but they are not and they will not.

Only a fool pretends that they will.

I was reading an article about the riots in France which happened several years ago.

What surprised me the most was the tremendous amount of "restraint" the French police displayed while they were literally being attacked by the mob with weapons.
Those Muslim youths were lucky they were going up against the French police, if they tried that sh!t in America the police would shoot to kill.

This is how Americans protest. Notice how submissive the people are towards the police? --> for good reason!
Image
One of the things that "experienced" protesters will recommend is to sit on the ground.
The police are less likely to beat you up. :mrgreen:
//
add on:
I think there will be violent riots in the USA but it's going to be a race riot.
It will not be a people vs. the police type of riot like what they have in France.
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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby rangerone314 » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 16:02:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'B')ut how long before people get fed up and burn something down? Respond to a charismatic leader? Scapegoat "the other"?

The United States is a pretty entitled bunch, living ten families to a house is for other people, the people we hire to fix our toilets it is not for us. And those lower on the food chain. The privlidged will demand to be heard and will cry for blood.

How long before long grudges come back to the surface? I drove through an unfamilar part of St. Paul/Minneapolis last week. I drove by a lot of very expensive houses and condos. Crossed the bridge into Minneapolis and the community was not revitalized. Those who can afford expensive fuel are only 300 yards away from those who cannot. When one group is giving up their latte, the other is giving up eating. I wonder how long that will last?

Sure there is a lot of "fat" to trim. The problem is the fat has a name and a family and a sense of self-respect, a sense of entitlement, they have emotions, and they have firearms. This is not an economic problem, it is a people problem. You can make the economics work as long as people act like abandoned factories and go quietly into the night but they are not and they will not.

Only a fool pretends that they will.

Image


This reminds me of the Quark quote from "Star Trek: Deep Space 9", "Siege of AR-558" episode:

"Let me tell you something about humans, nephew. They're a wonderful, friendly people . . . as long as their bellies are full and their holosuites are working. But take away their creature comforts, deprive them of food, sleep, sonic showers . . . put their lives in jeopardy over an extended period of time . . . and those same intelligent, friendly, wonderful people will become as nasty, and as violent, as the most bloodthirsty Klingon."

or paraphrased:
"Let me tell you something about Americans, nephew. They're a wonderful, friendly people . . . as long as their bellies are full and their cellphones are working. But take away their creature comforts, deprive them of food, sleep, TV . . . put their lives in jeopardy over an extended period of time . . . and those same intelligent, friendly, wonderful people will become as nasty, and as violent, as the most bloodthirsty Taliban."
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby rangerone314 » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 16:05:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '
')Sure there is a lot of "fat" to trim. The problem is the fat has a name and a family and a sense of self-respect, a sense of entitlement, they have emotions, and they have firearms. This is not an economic problem, it is a people problem. You can make the economics work as long as people act like abandoned factories and go quietly into the night but they are not and they will not.

Only a fool pretends that they will.


A slight tangent here, but I have to share a recent anecdote...

The ironies of peak oil never cease to amaze me. The location of transition towns is what bugs the sh*t out of me right now. One of them is located in Newburyport, MA. Now, I don't know about the whole town, but it sure as hell seems like a blue-blood posh neighborhood to me. It even has a glossy magazine dedicated to it. Nevertheless, on Sunday I was there for my uncle's wedding and the family he's marrying into, well, they're probably the last people on earth to be worrying about the price of gasoline or a loaf of bread. (If they ever read this, it's nothing personal. They know not what they do.) Newburyport has to be a transition town due to liberal ideology, not economic necessity. As long as that's the case, I think preps are doomed to failure. What sense of urgency can one maintain for preps when you're that loaded? I was tempted to bring up the fact that Newburyport is a Transition Town at the wedding but raising the spectre of soylent green while eating chocolate covered strawberries just seems a little pointless, ya know? The town I'm living in is almost as extreme.

It does kind of demonstrate what I'm talking about as far as the fat being there to cut. That IS a form of protection from the early stages of peak oil. At least here in NE people by and large don't have guns so I don't think these latte liberals are going to go on a shooting rampage because $200 oil means they have to sell off their BMWs. It will take until the latter stages of collapse for the playing field to level itself out more until the neighbors exit their McMansions looking for brainz. It's just that with that wealth comes complacency. Rearranging the deck chairs of the Titanic, as it were.

I don't want to be so cynical that I will categorically write off these people but it's really hard to see them adapting, so much so that I've really kept my doomerism on a low key despite the backyard garden. I just don't know whether I'm going to "come out" to the block this summer or keep the garden firmly buried under plausible deniability. I could call the mayor up and try to draft a mitigation plan. Why bother? The people here might possibly be liberal intellectual enough to get the message, but just too rich to feel the urgency to act.

Image


And if they DO end up with a good thing going after peak, what stops 20 heavily-armed, trained, recent-ex-Marines from taking over their place?
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: can the world really afford $200+ a barrel

Postby Spanktron9 » Tue 23 Jun 2009, 17:48:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '
')Sure there is a lot of "fat" to trim. The problem is the fat has a name and a family and a sense of self-respect, a sense of entitlement, they have emotions, and they have firearms. This is not an economic problem, it is a people problem. You can make the economics work as long as people act like abandoned factories and go quietly into the night but they are not and they will not.

Only a fool pretends that they will.


A slight tangent here, but I have to share a recent anecdote...

The ironies of peak oil never cease to amaze me. The location of transition towns is what bugs the sh*t out of me right now. One of them is located in Newburyport, MA. Now, I don't know about the whole town, but it sure as hell seems like a blue-blood posh neighborhood to me. It even has a glossy magazine dedicated to it. Nevertheless, on Sunday I was there for my uncle's wedding and the family he's marrying into, well, they're probably the last people on earth to be worrying about the price of gasoline or a loaf of bread. (If they ever read this, it's nothing personal. They know not what they do.) Newburyport has to be a transition town due to liberal ideology, not economic necessity. As long as that's the case, I think preps are doomed to failure. What sense of urgency can one maintain for preps when you're that loaded? I was tempted to bring up the fact that Newburyport is a Transition Town at the wedding but raising the spectre of soylent green while eating chocolate covered strawberries just seems a little pointless, ya know? The town I'm living in is almost as extreme.

It does kind of demonstrate what I'm talking about as far as the fat being there to cut. That IS a form of protection from the early stages of peak oil. At least here in NE people by and large don't have guns so I don't think these latte liberals are going to go on a shooting rampage because $200 oil means they have to sell off their BMWs. It will take until the latter stages of collapse for the playing field to level itself out more until the neighbors exit their McMansions looking for brainz. It's just that with that wealth comes complacency. Rearranging the deck chairs of the Titanic, as it were.

I don't want to be so cynical that I will categorically write off these people but it's really hard to see them adapting, so much so that I've really kept my doomerism on a low key despite the backyard garden. I just don't know whether I'm going to "come out" to the block this summer or keep the garden firmly buried under plausible deniability. I could call the mayor up and try to draft a mitigation plan. Why bother? The people here might possibly be liberal intellectual enough to get the message, but just too rich to feel the urgency to act.

Image


And if they DO end up with a good thing going after peak, what stops 20 heavily-armed, trained, recent-ex-Marines from taking over their place?


Bingo!

This is what I keep trying to convey to the hippies in Eugene, OR. They all have huge gardens, and bicycle everywhere, and do a good job of post peak living, except they all have huge "PEACE" banners and prayer flags out front. A large, disenfranchised part of the OR population, has military training, and the will to use it. That nice well stocked pantry is easy pickens with no defense plan.
Who are you going to turn to when all the crazy Peak-oil doomers end up being right?
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