[KevO]

sorry I said £4 when I meant $3 - got them crossed!
Yes, who'd have predicted this day
weird

[CARVER]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grimnir', '
')... I'm wondering how much of the stock market's strength is do to government intervention. ...

[Jaymax]

Richardmmm,

I owe you an apology.

While I remain inconvinced that you are a professional trader, while I have a fundamental problem admiting someone who argues for abiotic oil might have better market judgement than me, I can't not not acknowledge that had I shorted as per your recommendation, I might have made a tidy sum, rather than had to deal to a margin call this morning.

However, that said, I'm hanging on to my long positions (november unleaded and long-dated crude)...

So maybe I'll listen to your comments a bit more closely - but trust me, abiotic oil is bollox.

--J

[Jaymax]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seb', 'O')k, wait for today's first post Katrina US petroleum report. If a sharp drop in gasoline stocks is reported (it may happen ), it would be interesting to see how the market react.

[richardmmm]

beware of markets where they raise margin requirements..........i have seen margins raised on crude and energies several times in the last 3 years and it's always a sign that a major top is in place. they want to make sure everyone has the cash when the market reverses. and either way it moves, it also shakes people out unexpectedly, when margins are larger than usual.

they say a professional is just an amateur with lots of experience.......i can't say i am a professional trader just yet, but let's just say i made and lost enough money in the futures markets especially energies to make most peoples hair stand on end. the net result YTD is probably not quite as impressive as the specific gains and losses, as I made many mistakes myself, but my experience is building..........read the reminisance of a stock operator, that book is the bible to trading, especialy volatile markets and futures. it never really matters that much to make or lose money, only to stay in the game. Jesse Livermore, made and lost millions several times over, but his experiences always made him profitable eventually.

obviously the government is going to spread out the inventory numbers over a few weeks to stop further price spikes. obviously they can overstate numbers for a few weeks until shipments get unloaded and then understate them later on once things have settled down. like that the stats are manipulated to provide a cushion. that just means the government is siding with the shorts...........it a matter of national security..........thanks dubbya

where it goes from here is a real hard call, i think a lot lower, but probably a quick run up first to keep the bulls hopeful and the buyers of calls coughing up to hedge themselves. if you want a good method for trading oil, go to nymex.com and check out the balance of open interest on the front month options. view all the calls on one window and all the puts on another and you can see roughly where the balance lies. As of Monday it was at about $62.50. Since the market makers mainly sell options, the price tends to revert to a point where they make the most profits and the maximum amount of puts and calls expire worthless.

Most likely on options expiration which is in one week, the market takes a dive to settle somewhere around $62-$63. Between now and then they'll want to keep the bulls interested and before V05 expires they'll want to get the bulls rolling over, so it's not going to crash in one shot.

Abiotic oil is an interesting one. I studied geology at Imperial College London, where alot of reasearch professors work. They were quite coy about the subject and definitely did not discount it, and infact said that there was a definite case for it in some places of the world, the granites in russia etc. where there are no sediment source rocks to be found and the oil appears to come from massive depths. I had all but forgotten about it when i came across that article on the internet that i first posted the link for here.

I was probably getting a bit over excited about it. I don't think that browsing the internet for articles is a qualification for making judgements. On the other hand it benefits the oil companies a great deal to keep it under wraps, and it's only been the russians that have reasearched into it in any detail. With communism only falling 15 years ago and oil having been researched for several hundred, it could take quite some time for it to get added into the text books. I don't think that anyone can totally deny that some oil is of abiotic origin. Cetainly none of my professors were jumping to discount it entirely, although they questioned how much oil could come from abiotic sources long term......But the fact that there is something to it, leads to some interesting logic about many of the other oil deposits that are loosely associated with subduction zones all over the planet, and I am sure with research, there are other reserves of abiotic oil that cuold be found by drilling deep enough in the right places,

Plate tectonics itself was of course ridiculed until the late 1960s when they discovered the magetic striping, and now we take it for granted. It could be that oil is produced at depth as some kind of lubricating by product of the break down of carbonate rocks under high pressure. There is a lot that science doesn't know and just like the flaw in capitalism tends to ignore things that have no price, such as clean water and air, quality of life etc etc. Science is also flawed in that anything that can't be immediately proved must be discounted as totally wrong. Modern Science is only one method of intellectual investigation. You could say that it is the religion of the post industrial era, and just as the other religions became increasingly dogmatic and stilted, I think science has unfortunately chosen that path as well.......human nature I guess.......There are other ways to approach investigating the physics and science of the universe about which we still know so little.

As far as oil goes, peak or not, the oil companies are playing games in concert with the government to run prices high and flop them low again. This of course has the effect not only of raising net prices and getting people comfortable with $40 oil and $2.50-$3 gas, It also wipes out small time companies, investment in alternatives etc. who go rushing in at $50, $60, $70 projections only to find they are not profitable.

If Albert Oil sands were so amazing then why weren't they all bought up years ago..........? no first they get everyone excited pouring money in, then they wack the price, then the big boys come in and buy them out for pennies.........

[rowante]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')veryone thinks that Bush failed, even though he invaded Iraq, oil prices ran. But they never thought to assume that they invaded Iraq so that they could run oil prices high without lining Sadams pockets with a quick 3 Billion dollars a week. There was so much corruption going on with that Food for Oil story I think that was one of the reasons they had to put an end to it once and for all.

[shakespear1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he oil industry is truly a dark, nasty business.

[richardmmm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he oil industry is truly a dark, nasty business.

[shakespear1]

Here in Poland they have a magazine called FORUM. It takes good stories from all of the world and compiles them in this magazine under some theme.

The latest one was about our Neuroeconomics.

There's are story taken from the Der Spiegel titled "Taking a look at a Client's Brain". The story is about how he decide to buy things and what happens when we make that DECISION. The critical observation is that "When the brain comes in contact with a "brand" product it SHUTS OFF". We do not use reason but rather emotional side of our brain. It is not rational that GUIDES us but rather emotions.

I hope most appreciate what this means if they do not already do so.

5th Ave. Marketing People run our lives and most are not even aware of it.

And it doesn't stop there.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

Only Alternating Current Motors. I'd say some ac motors could last hundreds of years. The only problem with them is that they don't have much torq power, like an electric fan, you can put your hand in it and it will stop. Most electric cars use DC motors which means they have brushes that quickly wear out, but they are more powerful, if you stuck your hand into a dc powered fan it could cut your hand off. AC motors are good to use to generate power, you could set one up near a waterfall and never have to come back to check on it for years.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')eah, and it's not just the oil. when you investigate and find out that all those nice logos like, BP, Exxon, Mobile, Texaco are all just parts or controlled by standard oil, and when you dig a bit deeper and find rothchilds and rockefellers or their minions on the board of literally dozens of companies then you start to understand that we are not a democracy but an oligracy

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')eah, and it's not just the oil. when you investigate and find out that all those nice logos like, BP, Exxon, Mobile, Texaco are all just parts or controlled by standard oil, and when you dig a bit deeper and find rothchilds and rockefellers or their minions on the board of literally dozens of companies then you start to understand that we are not a democracy but an oligracy

[shakespear1]

Here a good link to keep an eye on things.

Charts

richardmmm - could you comment on what I see in the Philly Fed Survey link? I thing you have the qualifications to do this.

[richardmmm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'y')eah, and it's not just the oil. when you investigate and find out that all those nice logos like, BP, Exxon, Mobile, Texaco are all just parts or controlled by standard oil, and when you dig a bit deeper and find rothchilds and rockefellers or their minions on the board of literally dozens of companies then you start to understand that we are not a democracy but an oligracy

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n')ot exactly since the same people all have the controlling interests

[richardmmm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n')ot exactly since the same people all have the controlling interests

[richardmmm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'H')ere a good link to keep an eye on things.

Charts

richardmmm - could you comment on what I see in the Philly Fed Survey link? I thing you have the qualifications to do this.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'o')h yes forgive me I forgot how much sway shareholders have in the runing of corporations. i mean we only have to look at a situation like enron to see how important they are in day to day decisions............while we are on enron there is a perfect example of how they manipulated the electricity prices in california. it's not a conspiracy theory. a conspiracy theory is the president is a lizardman alien, or hilter is still alive and controls the governments decisions by using his secret deathray weapon to threaten them........what we are talking about here is simply hardnosed business, money and more importantly power / control. anyone would do the same if they were in that business

[something_awfull]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukat', 'O')nly Alternating Current Motors. I'd say some ac motors could last hundreds of years. The only problem with them is that they don't have much torq power, like an electric fan, you can put your hand in it and it will stop. Most electric cars use DC motors which means they have brushes that quickly wear out, but they are more powerful, if you stuck your hand into a dc powered fan it could cut your hand off. AC motors are good to use to generate power, you could set one up near a waterfall and never have to come back to check on it for years.

[richardmmm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'o')h yes forgive me I forgot how much sway shareholders have in the runing of corporations. i mean we only have to look at a situation like enron to see how important they are in day to day decisions............while we are on enron there is a perfect example of how they manipulated the electricity prices in california. it's not a conspiracy theory. a conspiracy theory is the president is a lizardman alien, or hilter is still alive and controls the governments decisions by using his secret deathray weapon to threaten them........what we are talking about here is simply hardnosed business, money and more importantly power / control. anyone would do the same if they were in that business