[EnviroEngr]

"Why Carbon Fuels Will Dominate The 21st Century's Global Energy Economy", by Peter R. Odell

My Review, chapter by chapter, forthcoming. Thank you Julian for the AirLift. It came yesterday (04Nov2004). Because they set the tone so very well, I will take as my starting point the following two paragraphs excerpted from the Preface:

" - The greater part of the book is thus dedicated to showing that, for most of the 21st century, energy demand limitations will be so significant that little or no pressure will be brought to bear on the relatively plentiful and profitable-to-produce flows of coal, oil and natural gas. Indeed, continuity in the slowly increasing supply of carbon energy – based on a modest depletion of the world's generous coal resource base and on the exploitation of about three-quarters of the world's currently conservatively-estimated remaining 5000 billion barrels of oil – will be achieved; albeit in part, as a result of the accelerating substitution of coal and oil products by natural gas, so creating a successful evolution of the markets for carbon fuels for at least the first half of the century. Thereafter, plentiful natural gas resources – partly conventional, but more significantly, unconventional – can readily sustain most of the total potential energy supply required until the very last decade of the 21st century. In so doing, the world's natural gas industry will, by 2100, be more than five times its size in 2000.

- Over the 21st century as a whole, a total of some 1660 Gigatons (= 1660 x [10 to the 9th] tons) oil equivalent of carbon energy will be produced and used, compared with a cumulative total in the 20th century of just under 500 Gigatons. This more-than-three-fold increase in the use of carbon energy in the 21st century reflects not only the bountiful nature of the world's endowment of carbon energy fuels, but also the willingness of the nations which are rich in coal, oil and/or natural gas to accept the depletion of their "natural" resources, in return for the economic growth it generates for the countries concerned and the rising incomes it secures for their populations."

Since there is no way I can enter personal viewpoints without poisoning the well, my own observations of what I've read here will, by necessity, be in a separate posting. The review I intend to do first will be nothing more than an offering up of the facts as presented.

[EnviroEngr]

Here's a little something to help set the stage:
http://globalpublicmedia.com/articles/358

[Taskforce_Unity]

Why carbon fuels will dominate the 21st century’s global energy economy.
Peter R. Odell 2004 ISBN: 0-906522-22-6

Professor Emeritus Odell of International Energy studies is an economist from Erasmus University in the Netherlands. His book is mainly from the economist side of fossil fuel depletion.

This book is on one hand very well written and on the other hand biased.
It is well written because he envelops and comments on the views from different sides of the spectrum (BP, IEA, Laherrere, Deffeyes, Campbell etc.). Futhermore it calculates everything into Oil Equivalents and has quite excellent clear graphs.

It is biased because he states others views (Cambpell, Laherrere, Deffeyes) as incorrect and impossible ones. To me science is not about stating others view as non existent but as a possiblity of the future, you can go on explaining ofcourse why you're view is more realistic. Futhermore he calls them flat earthers and “jeremiahsâ€