[rumspringa]

A new book due out in the U.S. in January. It's already in print in the U.K. I haven't read it yet and the following is the publisher's blurb.

Iran Oil: The New Middle East Challenge to America by Roger Howard

The US sees itself as being locked into a confrontation with Iran, its number one enemy since the invasion of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. But, as Roger Howard argues in this compelling and provocative new book, by attempting to isolate Iran, the US may in fact be undermining its own power. For if the US forces the rest of the world to choose between Iran and America, Iran has a trump card to play: some of the largest deposits of gas and petroleum on the planet. With global energy demands at an all-time high and supplies becoming increasingly inaccessible, Iran’s oil and gas have already started to lure former US allies such as Pakistan and India away from American influence. Over the next decade, Iran’s energy supplies look set to radically reformulate the security and diplomatic relationships of Asia and the Middle East. Furthermore, because of US trade embargoes on Iran, it is only the US’s rivals, such as China, who are able to fully exploit Iran’s natural resources, thus powering a new alliance of countries which will act as a counterweight to US global power. By pursuing such a hostile agenda to a country with so much petro-clout, America is, according to Howard, writing its obituary as the world’s only superpower.

Roger Howard is a freelance journalist specialising in defence and energy issues in the Middle East. He is a contributor to The New Statesman and Spectator magazines, Middle East International and Jane's Intelligence Review.

HARDBACK, I.B Tauris, ISBN 1845112490, 224 pages, £13.20 (amazon.co.uk), $39.95 (amazon.com)

[nth]

I like this debate.

I will disagree. Just look at 1950's. US and GBR led an embargo that prevented any oil from being shipped from Iran. Plenty of countries wanted to buy Iran's oil, but when US stated that they will retaliate, others stepped back. The same will happen. The only reason US embargo on Iran is not working is that US does not retaliate other states for trading with Iran. When US does, I fail to see many states crossing the line. Especially, Japan and China will not cross that line. They will only cross if they see US afraid to retaliate.

I have yet seen any time in history that states went against US will due to economics. The states that defy US embargo have always done it as a political statement and not economic one. This author is arguing that economics will lend Iran greater strength, which is flaw. I challenge anyone to present a real world situation where a state defy US and face US sanctions, yet preceded due to economic incentives.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'I') like this debate.

I will disagree. Just look at 1950's.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'I') like this debate.

I will disagree. Just look at 1950's.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'N')o, US did not offer oil in place of Iran's.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'N')o, US did not offer oil in place of Iran's.