by Sixstrings » Wed 21 Mar 2012, 21:58:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon', 'T')his is what Marx predicted. However, he viewed it as glass half-full rather than half-empty: he maintained that the development of the means of production will free up people from exploitation and enable them to pursue of sorts of creative endeavors that they aspire to - instead of framing this historical process in terms of the "permanent jobs deficit" (which is the same, in substance). Money will become redundant. He called this arrangement "communism". The swear word.
Ick.. I've never read Marx.. kind of spooky to independently come to the same conclusions.
Thing is, what we're now dealing with is way beyond what Marx could have envisaged regarding factory work. IT, software, the Internet, and ever better robots are combining to eliminate jobs from all sectors. Also new production methods are eliminating jobs -- "crowdsourcing." Getting people to do FOR FREE, or close to it, what people used to want a paycheck to do.
Nobody wants to admit it I suppose, but we're heading for more socialism and government distribution of wealth. There's no other answer, *because of the extreme automation, the offshoring, and new extremely efficient production and service methods*.
If anyone disagrees with me the best counter argument is that I'm a luddite. This is nothing new, people were worrying about this since windmills and then the steam age yet new jobs did replace the old. I'm saying we're on the outer edge of the exponential efficiency curve now, that's the difference now and going forward.
Wasn't too many years ago I could call a customer service number and at least talk to an Indian. Now software voice recognition software is pretty could. I just notice these things. Used to be you had to yell in the phone and talk slowly and still the darn computer wouldn't recognize it, past few years it seems to be really good now though I say "yes," "no," "billing," sometimes the computer just asks what your question is and you speak naturally and surprise the computer understands the full sentence then asks more detailed questions to complete your transaction.
If anyone isn't noticing these things getting more advanced, they're not paying attention.
Robotics is the next big revolution, then the singularity. Even right now, my local hospital has a robot that can do a lot of surgeries:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://www.davincisurgery.com/$assets$/7a9a5682-444e-4c22-b44e-88e33b1c1a15/davinci_si_surgical_system_150x125.jpg[/img]
http://www.davincisurgery.com/davinci-surgery/ For now that robot ^^ is an augmentation for the human surgeon so he can do things he could not do with his own human hands. Eventually though the surgeon operator won't be required at all. Or, one human surgeon could oversee maybe three robotic operating theaters -- ergo less labor cost and more efficiency and profit for the hospital; it's the same at all levels of employment, Walmart wants to do automatic checkouts, one receipt checker overseeing a line of them rather than one worker for each register. Same principle.
We all know the luddites were wrong, yet we do have a permanent jobs deficit that's growing -- *it would be really bad without government jobs and without government spreading wealth, let's just be frank gov is employing or supporting half of everyone, partially supporting even more households*.
As we get close to the AI singularity, software will be advanced enough to begin to take over tens of millions of cubicle type paper pushing jobs. Things like manual labor, we're already close to that -- I've posted about new robots than can pick fruit etc. using cameras and spatial image recognition abilities.
, we're on the cusp of that we're just waiting for better voice recognition and some fine tuning of robotic limbs, hands, fingers -- all this exists, it's just not quite there yet but it's close.
The full singularity of AI intelligence / sentience means software will be creative -- then that's the big event, there goes all human labor. This is where I'd disagree with Marx -- humans will face AI competition even in creativity. Even assuming the only jobs are creative jobs, and until AI can do those,
. If we want a good, decent, safe society we'll have to figure out how to respond to a world without enough jobs. Like it or not that means some kind of communism, if for no other reason than consumer capitalism will implode after they've destroyed too many of their own customers' jobs.