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Balkanization

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Balkanization

Unread postby careinke » Thu 08 Nov 2012, 18:36:51

Of course blue areas pay more than red areas. Blue areas are primarily urban, you know the places where all the Lawyers, CEO's, and Billionaires live. While red areas are primarily rural, you know the places where migrant workers, farmers, and people who can't afford $2,000.00 a month for a 500 square foot apartment live. So it's working EXACTLY like the Dims want it to, the rich areas support the poor areas. So quit bitching already, it's working the way you Dims want it to.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 12 Nov 2012, 12:57:37

Just like how physical structures like magazines or TV stations in the age of information are no longer the holders of value they once were, so too physical containers like counties and states also fail to hold value. We are already Balkanized. Mad Hatter John Birchers are everywhere. They don't only infest Republican strongholds. Conservative disease spreads very easily in hard times, though, the likes of which a low energy future may bring. The power of information to separate us while at the same time not physically require us to comply with the tenants of that separation may wane in such a future. If I lived down South I would run in such a future.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 12 Nov 2012, 15:40:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'J')ust like how physical structures like magazines or TV stations in the age of information are no longer the holders of value they once were, so too physical containers like counties and states also fail to hold value. We are already Balkanized. Mad Hatter John Birchers are everywhere. They don't only infest Republican strongholds. Conservative disease spreads very easily in hard times, though, the likes of which a low energy future may bring. The power of information to separate us while at the same time not physically require us to comply with the tenants of that separation may wane in such a future. If I lived down South I would run in such a future.


Not sure I understand you, but in the event I do....that is why I fear 2016....continued recession/depression resulting in a reactionary government win in 2016.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby sparky » Mon 12 Nov 2012, 16:57:26

.
"Evilgenius has a good insight , many societies now are balkanized by internal disarmony

minorities are self concious and do not nescessarily love all of their fellows citizen
would those fractures turn into hostile blocks ? ....they could if the stress is large enought
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby Pops » Tue 20 Nov 2012, 09:20:31

Gerrymandering + Citizens United (read: Corporations United) = Balkanization

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you thought the presidential election revealed the nation's political rifts, consider the outcomes in state legislatures. The vote also created a broader tier of powerful one-party governments that can act with no need for compromise. Half of state legislatures now have veto-proof majorities, up from 13 only four years ago, according to figures compiled for The Associated Press by the National Conference of State Legislatures.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 20 Nov 2012, 11:13:24

I don't recall you Dem's complaining a whole lot when a Democrat gerrymander was sending a large majority D delegation from Texas despite Texas not being a D state. Sauce for the goose. Get back to me in a couple decades after the R's have had a good fair shake with the modern gerrymander.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby Pops » Tue 20 Nov 2012, 11:43:31

The point isn't D vs R (gasp!) it's that the gerrymandered super majorities of whichever party have no reason to pay attention to the wishes of the other whether it's Ds in Tx or Rs in CA.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby Lore » Tue 20 Nov 2012, 11:44:34

Looks like an outside possibility anyway that Texas may go blue next Presidential cycle. Which regardless of gerrymander will create ongoing gridlock.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 20 Nov 2012, 12:28:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he point isn't D vs R (gasp!) it's that the gerrymandered super majorities of whichever party have no reason to pay attention to the wishes of the other whether it's Ds in Tx or Rs in CA.


I don't disagree, but its funny that the Dems only complain when the R's are the beneficiary of said gerrymander.

Lore, I doubt very seriously if Texas will be majority D in 2016. I wouldn't feel slighted by that, but I put it in the same column as thinking the R's will take 70 seats in the US Senate by 2016. Not happening.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 20 Nov 2012, 16:23:49

Somehow I think arguing about D vs R is missing the point. That would be business as usual. Balkanization is a different order of magnitude, IMHO.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby Pops » Tue 20 Nov 2012, 16:56:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', ' ')I put it in the same column as thinking the R's will take 70 seats in the US Senate by 2016. Not happening.

That's right, Senators are elected by statewide vote, so with the D win at the top the D's won a couple of additional senate seats.

Representatives are elected by districts they control (this time the Rs), House Ds received 52-48 majority of the popular vote yet the Rs have their 2nd largest majority since the Great Depression.

Not that this will change until the next census... it could if done by referendum I guess but that's not likely.

Still the problem isn't so much that Rs have the majority, it's the the extreme R's that have the seats. I'm only radical on a few points (that will never pass anyway) so I could live with moderate Ds 'n Rs. The problem is that in protected districts where there will be no reason to shake the Etch-A-Sketch for the general, the base can nominate as far out a candidate as they want with no downside.

Look at Aiken, his one little slip cost him the election and a senate seat for the Rs, it wasn't his overall extremism, it was that slip where he said what he believed that got him. I'm sure there are Dem examples of the same thing and that's the point, in protected districts there is no middle ground so there is no middle ground in the house.

It explains the feeling that MY congressman is good but everyone else's sucks.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 20 Nov 2012, 21:37:54

To be fair, I don't disagree with your general take on gerrymandering, and would love to see a good fix; but only after the R's have as good a bite of the apple as the D's had through the 70s and 80s.

There is actually a pretty easy fix, straight mathematical formula would allow reasonable continued state discretion on district lines, but prevent the extremes of silliness that have been common over the last 40 years or so.

My simple suggestion:
Enclosed area of the district must be less than [(perimeter length ^2) * (factor)]; the larger (factor) is, the more squiggly districts are allowed to be, so that would have to be seriously debated, but I see no reason that a good faith compromise couldn't be found.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 20 Nov 2012, 22:36:25

The Congress used to pass a redistricting law every 10 years and they used to include language on the lines of all districts must be as geographically compact and equal in population as possible.

The last time they passed a redistricting law they omitted the district being geographically compact and equal in population language. Some states like Michigan have a state law dictating geographically compact districts but the majority of them do not and gerrymandering has grown to insane proportions as a result. One of the new Democrat safe districts in Ohio has a barbell shape with one end in Toledo, the other end in Cleveland and a basically beach sand connection on Lake Eire connecting them a few meters wide.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 04 Jan 2013, 12:24:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')o given all that, the topic of discussion is:
If the US were to become dis-united would you emigrate from your "sector"? Where?


An interesting comment from a reader from an article on the cliff deal and the expiration of the payroll tax-cut stimulus...

"Just got my first paycheck of 2013 and geez they took extra $35 out. I make way under $30k. Thank you all you idiots who voted dem. Seriously thinking of going on the dole whats the point of working."

So how is this related to sectors, balkanization, emigration...

Its a simple proof that for such balkanization to work, it'd have to work peacefully so that multimillionaire farmers with many square miles of grain planted out in the middle of Nowhere, Nebraska have a reason to continue being multimillionaire farmers planting square mile after square mile of grain, in order to feed the people making comments like above. If balkanization happened by force, like... the Balkans, there would be no way for that farmer to cause those many square miles of dirt to magically turn into Corn Pops and pastries. If the grain stops being grown, those that would post sentiments as above in LA and NY would be in a REALLY tight spot, and a city especially depends on most of its residents to be peacefully tolerant of their living conditions.

So, if it must be peaceful emigration, just populations moving around to live with and among more like minded individuals; can the CityParty members manage to leave the CountryParty members politically unmolested, even though those dwelling in cities will ever more greatly outnumber the productive populations out in the farmland? Or do the policy objectives of CityParty become an oppressive, passively malevolent burden on those not living in the cities?

Its this helplessness of rural dwellers to politically defend themselves from policies that could make their lives untenable, that I think fuels alot of the weird backwood paranoia that you get when Washington does *anything*, or even some dumb UN academic exercise aimed at assisting impoverished countries in Africa.

Just something to consider...
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 04 Jan 2013, 15:16:23

Bah, I knew I should have stripped the partisan reference as it'd distract from the point, which you did get.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')o if there is balkanization then the balkans better talk and trade or we are all fubar.


They have to talk and play sorta nice, or else a very large number of people are likely to become very hungry. Maybe that's the purpose of HFCS, it ensures the General Lumpulation have sufficient fat on them so that they don't die to quickly when chaos does come and the food stops.

For the point, I was more interested in his "stop working... go on dole" thing. It might be a crappy life, but SNAP card is the key if the cityside grows to very high unemployed pcts; because the SNAP card works, they stay in the city, because they stay in the city and use the SNAP card, the multimillionaire grain farmer keeps getting paid through the market system for his tons and tons of corn/wheat. And as long as that market system currency is required to pay the farmer's taxes and debt service... Its a deal. I worry that CityParty resents paying for food, and I worry that CountryParty resents the handouts via SNAP,etc. That's a deal breaker.
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Re: Balkanization

Unread postby Pops » Fri 04 Jan 2013, 18:27:50

I think when we are talking abstractions we are too logical.

Th farm guy, begrudges the city guy every government perk because the farm guy thinks he is the only one paying the tab. The farm guy however doesn't see his commodity insurance, drought relief, price support, water subsidy, CRP payment, Corp of Engineer waterway management, farm extension, etc, etc, etc, as anything but his due.

City guy exactly the same.
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