[shakespear1]

I just read an interesting article about the Natural Gas (NG) cliff that we are approaching in North America and what got my eyes to focus on was the following issue raised by the author.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he other big driver of US natural gas consumption will be as
feedstock for natural gas fired power plants. While the pace of new
gas fired power plant construction has slowed in recent months, there
is a strong possibility that gas fired power plant construction will
continue for the foreseeable future. As discussed in the June 2003
issue (see Boric Acid and Natural Gas), the aging nuclear power plant
fleet in the US is a sleeping giant for natural gas consumption.
While there are only a handful of nuclear facilities that are up for
re-certification in the next few years, the end of this decade is a
different story. In the years 2009 to 2011, nearly 25% of the nuclear
power producing facilities in the US will be up for re-certification.
While it is unclear how many of today's active reactors will be de-
commissioned, any reduction in US nuclear generating capability will
likely be replaced by natural gas fired power plants.

[0mar]

Natural Gas is around 9.50 - 10 dollars instead of 4 dollars. That alone would be a crisis. If it weren't for oil's parallel rise, we'd probably hear a lot about the natural price march.

[shakespear1]

Omar

Notice the date on that article $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ugust 1, 2003

[savethehumans]

You'll be pleased to know, shakespear, that I painted the Jefferson quote on a ceramic plate, and had it glazed and kiln-cooked. Kept the plate WHITE. Put BLUE stars all around the rim. Lettered the quote itself in RED.

If neocons are having nightmares these days, I'd like to think people like us contribute to them!

As for having a natgas crisis--well:
YES! YES! YES!

[shakespear1]

Hahaaa

I will see if I can do the same but I am limited in not having a kiln.

It is trite to say this but "This was all know at least a decade ago".

[Sgs-Cruz]

It's the cover article in my local paper today (Hamilton Spectator).


(This is the picture linking to the story on their web site)





Edit: I'm at work right now and two desks over at this very moment, a co-worker and my boss are talking about natural gas and oil. Saying how it's really going to stretch them this winter (okay, not my boss, this is the guy with a huge indoor pool and a $150,000 BMW...). My co-worker has brought in the paper that has the article I talked about above.

These guys made fun of me to no end earlier this summer for riding my bike to work and saying that people should live near where they work. It's people like this that make me wish the peak is really severe. (Then I realize what that means, and I snap out of it, but still...)

[gt1370a]

That doesn't make any sense. Nuclear plants are baseload power that operates 24/7 for as long as you can keep them online before refueling or maintenance. Gas plants get turned on to meet peak demand and then get turned off again. If any nuclear plants are not re-licensed, they will be replaced by other nuclear plants or maybe coal.

[Leanan]

Except coal has its own problems:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic11797.html

[shakespear1]

Uh, from what I recall from my Nuc. Eng. education days, those little neutrons and gammas do a bad number on the metal parts of the reactor. I do not know the retrofitting schedules or what they do, but I think that this would be a big issue with an old reactor plant.

Do we have a practicing Nuclear Eng. in the house?

[Leanan]

No one is proposing that nuclear plants actually be converted to other fuels. Rather, the nuclear plants will be decommissioned. But then they will need to be replaced with something. That something is likely to be new natural gas or coal fired plants.

[trendal]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'U')h, from what I recall from my Nuc. Eng. education days, those little neutrons and gammas do a bad number on the metal parts of the reactor. I do not know the retrofitting schedules or what they do, but I think that this would be a big issue with an old reactor plant.

Do we have a practicing Nuclear Eng. in the house?

[shakespear1]

That was the reason I used my Nuc. Eng. degree and headed into the Petroleum Industry. My first job was working as a logging engineer for Schlumberger and there we used a neutron source for one of the logging tools. I HATED handling this as I new what I was subjecting my body to.

[TheInterloafer]

Nuclear plants will be replaced by natural gas plants?? Huh? I thought the exact opposite was going to happen because of the impending natural gas crisis. If we are indeed about to drop off a cliff on natural gas availability, then nuclear energy may be the only way "to keep the lights on," in Kunstler's words.

[SD_Scott]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sgs-Cruz', 'I')t's the cover article in my local paper today (Hamilton Spectator).


(This is the picture linking to the story on their web site)





Edit: I'm at work right now and two desks over at this very moment, a co-worker and my boss are talking about natural gas and oil. Saying how it's really going to stretch them this winter (okay, not my boss, this is the guy with a huge indoor pool and a $150,000 BMW...). My co-worker has brought in the paper that has the article I talked about above.

These guys made fun of me to no end earlier this summer for riding my bike to work and saying that people should live near where they work. It's people like this that make me wish the peak is really severe. (Then I realize what that means, and I snap out of it, but still...)

[aahala]

I think it's permature to say NG will replace the retiring nuclear plants.
The expiration dates are all over the place, but mostly after 2020 than
before and the NRC has already granted several 20 year license extensions for several plants since 2000 years before the original
expiration.

Nobody is going to build plants to replace old ones long before retirement.
The chief beneficiary of much higher NG prices for electrical generation
in the next 5-10 years is wind.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')uclear plants will be replaced by natural gas plants?? Huh? I thought the exact opposite was going to happen because of the impending natural gas crisis. If we are indeed about to drop off a cliff on natural gas availability, then nuclear energy may be the only way "to keep the lights on," in Kunstler's words.

[pea-jay]

In certain areas, NG has become the default baseload generator. Here in Cali we have made a huge move towards NG Generation over the past 20 years so that it is now both a base load generation and peak period generation.

At times the power mix approaches 50% NG. In contrast, Hydro and Nuclear (the ideal base load generators) comprise only 20% apiece.

What a mess we placed ourselves into. Even the SoCalEdison representatives I have talked to are edgy about this.

[BabyPeanut]

[Cyrus]

According to that chart, last year we were at the lowest point throughout the year at this time (August); while now we are higher than peak demand of last year at this time.

I wonder what the peak demand price will be?

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Exxon: Natural Gas Has Peaked in North America

Exxon's CEO says natural gas production has peaked in North America. (Reuters link expired)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter weak prices in the 1990s due to oversupply, natural gas production in North America will probably continue to decline unless there is another big discovery, Exxon Mobil Corp.'s chief executive said on Tuesday.

"Gas production has peaked in North America," Chief Executive Lee Raymond told reporters at the Reuters Energy Summit.

Asked whether production would continue to decline even if two huge arctic gas pipeline projects were built, Raymond said, "I think that's a fair statement, unless there's some huge find that nobody has any idea where it would be." [...]

"The facts are that gas production continues to decline, and will start to decline even more rapidly. By the time we get to that period (2010-2012), we'll need it badly." [...]

While the number of U.S. rigs drilling for natural gas has climbed about 20 percent over the last year and prices are at record highs, producers have been struggling to raise output.

Experts said easy onshore and shallow water basins have been mostly tapped or are off limits for environmental reasons, and new technologies like horizontal drilling have been draining wells in two or three years, a much faster rate than the five years or more during the 1990s.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that natural gas production will be flat this year and increase only one-half percent next year.

At the same time, demand for the cleaner burning fossil fuel is expected to grow by two percent this year and almost 2.5 percent in 2006, according to EIA, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy. [My emphasis]