[gigacannon]

If there is a short period of time between now and the oil production peak such that there is no time for transition into an alternative fuel-source economy, then petroleum won't be completely gone, but its use will be limited such that only essential travel (such as the delivery of food) will be permitted by the governmet and/or economic factors.

The manner of food distribution will differ based on the local population structure. If there is a high enough population to support a supermarket within a thirty minute to an hour long walk, then supermarkets will stay, since it is more efficient, whichever way you look at it (and in terms of people's health!) for people to walk to the store, and food and other essential be delivered in bulk to a single location.

If smaller communities cannot support a store that requires less than one full delivery truck a week, then we've got to be open to the possibility of population shift. It's a sickening thought, I know, communities huddled around outposts of the remnants of WalMart or Tesco or whatever. Obviously this is only possible in the USA if the US government keeps its agriculture and weapons manufacture industries going.

In Europe, I guess it'd probably be the same basic story... of course there are plenty of other scenarios that I can't guage the liklihood of.

[SoothSayer]

And of course big stores would be easier to guard ...

Just a few thousand armed guards would be needed in the UK.

(Say 15,000 ... 3 guards per store x 3 shifts x 1500 stores)

Also, the UK stores have adjacent petrol (gas) stations which the police would be protecting anyway.

Imagine trying to protect 10 gadzillion tiny stores and their delivery vehicles!

[pea-jay]

Like I said earlier, Mega stores will probably be workable in urban areas for some time to come. They probably wont have the selection we are accustomed to, but as others have noted, it would be easier to protect and stock them than a large number of small stores.

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chicken_Little', '
')
Take a reality pill. You can have one for free.

You're completely insane if you think the large-scale industrial infrastructure required to support these stores can be maintained without fossil fuels.

[grabby]

In the 1970's we didn't run out we just ran a little low.
Remember what happened?

Now we are going to run a little lower (Relatively)
Watch what happens.

[gigacannon]

For those of us born in the 80s, could you enlighten us as to what happened in the 70s? I'm vaguely aware, but not from a personal perspective.

Unlike many doomers, I think us Brits think we are likely to remain calm and orderly, and expect massive changes to daily life, including it getting much worse, but I don't think that we're expecting it to be a totally chaotic disaster.

I've always thought that if someone blew up London with a nuclear bomb, half of the rest of the country would still keep going to work. What else would they do? That's what it feels like to live in Britain. That's what a lot of British people are actually like.

[jdmartin]

One thing missing from everyone's discussion is the amount of stuff purchased.

I think it's been reasonably established that having most people going to a central location (or having one central location, i.e. a delivery truck, going to everyone) is generally more time and resource efficient than everyone going to a whole bunch of different places. Kind of why cities are somewhat more efficient than decentralized suburbs.

However, the issue of a supermarket being more efficient than smaller stores is dependent on two things: a large total number of people coming to the store, and those people trucking ridiculous amounts of goods out of that store. This is the problem with the single, centrally located food market versus say Home Depot. You don't need a chainsaw every 2 days, but you probably like to eat at least daily. Most trips to the supermarket entail driving a car there, coming away with 15 bags of groceries, and not going back for another week or so.

Now imagine you're walking to Walmart instead of driving. Can you carry more than 2 bags of groceries a mile? What if you live 5 miles away - won't pushing that cart for 5 miles get real old, real fast? If everyone that showed up at Wallyworld left with just a loaf of bread and gallon of milk, their food business would be out of business. You won't see many 250 pound Soccer moms walking home 10 miles from Sam's Club with a 20 pound box of Cheetos.

So in an optimum world, where transportation was quick, easy, and free/cheap (hmm, not unlike today's world coincidentally), the supermarket is probably the most efficient. If everyone's walking, I guarantee the small corner market comes back and Wallyworld is out of business.

If you're interested in a case study, take a look sometimes at some real poor inner-city areas, where a large number of the residents don't have cars. There are almost no supermarkets, but there are still corner stores (even if it's 7-11) to buy your daily needs.

PS: IF we ever start to get away from the processed food business, and back to more consumption of self-processed foods, it will likely be the death of the supermarket as we know it.