An interesting Stepen Roach article.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the macro world, strikes, wars, and natural disasters have long been thought of as classic exogenous shocks -- those out-of-the-blue disruptions that jolt economies and markets. For stable economies, the impact of the exogenous shock is fairly predictable -- a temporary reduction in growth followed by the rebound of recovery. Such are the impacts that are likely to follow from the devastation of America’s Hurricane Katrina. But the energy shock of 2005 may be of a very different breed. It could well be an endogenous shock -- an unfortunate outgrowth of excesses that have been building in the macro system for a long time.



