[cipi604]

http://www.aspousa.org/proceedings/hous ... ojects.pdf

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he hole in the bucket --How big and how fast is depletion?
•Around 5%-8% for areas in decline
•Net depletion 4% or around 3.3mn b/d/yr
•Net now double demand growth
•How do we know? IEA Medium Term Report
•Is depletion accelerating? –Yes slowly maybe 0.1-0.15%/yr
•Can it be ameliorated? –Yes, slow production down

[Ayoob]

A 4% decline rate indicates an 18-year halving time. Daily oil flow is 50% lower at the end of one halving time.

Which, IMO, means the end of civilization as we know it today. If the halving time is long enough and the will is there to replace oil with nuclear, solar, wind, ocean power, and liquid ammonia (ask matt simmons, I just saw him mention it in an interview the other day and don't know shit about it), then maybe civilization can survive this event.

18 years. It's possible that a 4% decline rate could be replaced by alternatives. Expensive, not distributed as easily, and possibly insufficient... but possible.

[americandream]

Can you imagine the mammoth effort it will take to co-ordinate this farce of a planet of dysfunctional nations towards this end?

I can't. It's way off the meter of possibility for me.

[MD]

The report delivers a mixed message.

He gives a nod to "resource nationalism", but makes no effort to predict its impact.

In my opinion, "resource nationalism" will grow to be the significant factor over the next few years. It could happen very quickly in the form of embargoes, which would likely drop us right into WW3 overnight, or it could trickle in slowly, which will put the slow squeeze on importers.

I believe the squeeze is in process. You'd better all hope it doesn't tip out of control.

[cipi604]

I say that is impossible to keep the decline rate 2-4% after few years because of the problems that will appear from this huge lack of energy.
Because things tend to be much more complicated later on, the decline, or the total stopping of exports, will be much much higher.
Some thoughts about this?
In my opinion there is no possible way to handle the situation. You can call it bad luck.

[kokoda]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'l')iquid ammonia (ask matt simmons, I just saw him mention it in an interview the other day and don't know shit about it), then maybe civilization can survive this event.

[waldo]

Just for fun, this is my prediction for world crude oil production, just from simple curve fitting of all nations (peak of 12-month averaged at 74 Mb/d in late 2005). We have a second lower peak in early 2008, then downhill:
2008.04 73.64
2008.13 73.68
2008.21 73.71
2008.29 73.73
2008.38 73.73
2008.46 73.72
2008.54 73.69
2008.63 73.65
2008.71 73.59
2008.79 73.52
2008.88 73.44
2008.96 73.35
2009.04 73.26
2009.13 73.15
2009.21 73.04
2009.29 72.92
2009.38 72.80
2009.46 72.67
2009.54 72.54
2009.63 72.40
2009.71 72.26
2009.79 72.11
2009.88 71.96
2009.96 71.81
2010.04 71.65

[evilgenius]

Of course, if the export land model holds (why shouldn't it) then the curve will be parabolic, not linear. The rate will increase at a rate of increase peculiar to domestic demand in producing countries. This will be worse in OPEC countries, I think.

[seahorse]

Someone unconfuse me. He predicts PO about 2011, but do his bullet points say declining oil production now (meaning PO now)?

[TheDude]

I pointed out in the other CS report topic (Just how close to Peak Oil are we?) that he considers the 2011 date his most optimistic one; looks like 2009 otherwise.

Thread mergin' time. I like the title on this one better.

[cipi604]

So it's pretty clear now. Thank you.

[seahorse2]

From my reading of this latest report and other forecast on future oil production, the optimistic scenarios all assume continued big increases in Nigerian oil production. If increasing oil production in Nigeria is the foundation for PO optimism, its akin to the 2005 foundation for the "goldilocks" economy, which was based on the continued issuance of subprime "liar loans" now wreaking havoc throughout out the world's financial system.

These two attacks in the last week at par for the course in Nigeria:

Pipeline blast:

PO news article

Militants attack oil tanker in port.

Nigerian News

[LastViking]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is just me, or 4% is really bad news?!

[funzone36]

Civilization as we know it won't exist. Assuming no nuclear warfare, civilization is very likely to survive after peak oil even if it has to endure severe hardships.

[chris-h]

Civilization will survive .
I do believe that Russia and Saudi Arabia will prosper the next 50 years .
The west well civilization will survive in the west .

Suv and Prius will be replaced by scooters and bicycles.
In fact the new SUV of tomorrow will be today smart cars.
People will ask why use a smart car when you can use a bicycle.
About food ? we will all become vegetarians and the poor will eat potatoes.
People will live like in Mexico .8-12 ppl in a house.

Being poor is different from being dead.


As for USA my gut feeling is that Texas will declare independence .
It will still have oil left for some rich guys.
And they are going to build a huge fence to exclude all the rest.
.

[joeltrout]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('waldo', 'J')ust for fun, this is my prediction for world crude oil production, just from simple curve fitting of all nations (peak of 12-month averaged at 74 Mb/d in late 2005). We have a second lower peak in early 2008, then downhill:

[Nicholai]

Denmark, Denmark here I come....

I have always felt that 2009 was the last year of real global stability. Feelings don't count for jack but I'm just glad that I wasn't far off.

I'm hearing a great deal about ammonia production from nuclear......thoughts?

[Fredrik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'O')f course, if the export land model holds (why shouldn't it) then the curve will be parabolic, not linear. The rate will increase at a rate of increase peculiar to domestic demand in producing countries. This will be worse in OPEC countries, I think.

[TheDude]

World Production 2000-07. Doubt 2008 will register as much more than a slight blip here. This gives a bit more of a big picture view - it was simple enough to ramp up to the plateau, but we're not rising above it, no matter how much high prices deliver capital to invest in E&P. The slight downturn in 2002 is curious as well, 1999 also shows a bit of loss if you graph the whole shebang back to 1980.

[ROCKMAN]

I'd like to open up the discussion to a possible new term: APO = artificial peak oil. Just today Bloomberg reported a statement from the OPEC chair: OPEC should consider Venezuela’s recommendation to reducing production rates in order to "balance" the supply/demand dynamics currently in place. That the market is currently “over supplied”. Over supplied…does that mean the refiners are buying more oil then they can process and sell? Wow…they are doing a great job of hiding that huge inventory gain.

Whether this is the beginning of OPEC finally becoming a truly functional cartel or even if it’s years away, eventually OPEC will voluntarily reduce exports before PO is reached IMHO. If only half the world demand can afford $200 oil then OPEC can reduce lifting 50% and maintain the same income as they get from $100+ oil today and also double the life expectancy of their reserves in the process. The political/military response to such a policy might be severe but remember the half of the world that could afford $200 oil also has most of the military power. I don’t the KSA would be too worried about the EU invading them especially with China and the US having their back.

Just a wacky rambling thought brought on by low blood sugar.