[TorrKing]

This is sketch of how I believe things will progress with regards to peak oil. Also a brief explaination of why I don't believe there will be any recession or depression now.

China borrows US money to buy their own products, so does many of the oil exporting states around the world. Neither China or any exporting country is interesting in setting a halt to the US economy. They will let the madness go on as long as they possibly can.

So, unless they get their calculations wrong and the housing bubble bursts wide open by a mistake; the party will go on until neither is able to ignore the facts of Peak Oil. So what will be the decisive factor that makes for the arrival of the eternal depression?

I think there is only one possible: Real shortages of fuel inside the US. Real shortages make artificial pricing of fuel impossible. That will drive up the price no matter what. Causing the costs of transport to skyrocket, completely collapsing the economy within 1 year.

So what can keep the US from buying enough oil for their fuel? In my opinion that has to be (1.) either the world fuel production is not substantially higher than US consumption or (2.) some state interfere with the US' decision to take it all and wants some fuel too.

1. In this scenario, US goes around the market (uses military force) to claim as much as possible of the fuel produced by a country. Destabilizing it and invading is a possible way of doing it (Iraq). This can go on for quite a while if not scenario 2 happens. A factor (3.) moderating the length of which this can go on though is: After a while this will be hard on trade relationsships. When the US, China and the EU will have to either choose between competing for vital fuel for their own consumption or to continue trade with the US.

2. Some powerful, not so US-dependant country no longer accepts the US pillaging for oil and therby keeping prices artificially low. Russia being the country interfering. Russia is becoming mighty and seems to want more control. They may decide that after a point, they would get more money for their oil if the US isn't "controlling" a lot of the exporters. They tempt China and others into changing alliances and the US gets no more goods and fuel from outside. This will though be a hazardous gamble, as mentioned below, there is always the possibility of total collapse of Western civilisation.

After the US has collapsed (most of the third world will already be left in tatters after point 2) the whole Western economy collapses. If scenario 2 kicks in, there is the possibility that Europe may continue the party along with some other industrialized countries for yet a while. But in any scenario, without the US.

To a certain extent, scenario 1 may already be in motion, but fuel is yet not scarce enough for fuel to make the moderating factor (3.) kick in.

I have not read too many publications on the subject, so please excuse me if it doesn't bring anything new on the table. That is not really the intention either, but rather to compile in short why it will be a hard, fast crash.

[keehah]

Nice analysis, think your soft landing may apply more to your country than America. Some refinments or comments I had:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o what can keep the US from buying enough oil for their fuel?

[TorrKing]

Thanks for your input.

I clearly stated that the soft landing possibility only applies to Europe and a few other countries, not America.

Don't quite understand the question that comes along with the quote, please explain.

[MD]

2007-2015

The United States Dollar will suffer a crisis of confidence.

Once the market upheaval subsides, the United States will no longer have the ability to purchase more than 2-3 million barrels a oil per day from world markets.

The United States will become completely consumed with internal crises and will withdraw from the world stage.

A new Euro-Russian alliance will quickly form to offset Asian threats of dominence.

The Middle East, finding no super-power in residence, will be consumed by Islamic fundamentalism

China's dominence of Asian political affairs will grow unchallenged, while it continues to adjust it's manufacturing base to African, South American, and Middle East markets

Oil will become very plentiful, for a time, once the insatiable US demand is quenched. Peak Oil will go by mostly unnoticed, as demand will be knocked back well below production capacity.

Dieoff will begin in earnest through food and water shortages, heating crises, inability to respond to natural disasters, riots and unrest, and regional resource wars.

Through it all, the rich will continue to get richer, the poor will continue to get poorer(or just die).

Technological marvels will continue to be introduced, but only for a very fortunate few.

[RedV90]

This looks like fun so I will make this my first post

The U.s leave Iraq due to massive political pressure from within the U.S. Britain, unable to fill the gap left by the U.S rally U.N support but a smooth handover of power from the U.S to the U.N is undermined by increasing terrorist activity. The U.S tries to retain control of the oil fields but International pressure especially from Russia and China arguing for Iraqi independce scuppers all attempts.
Pulling out of Iraq and its preceeding factors causes a political crisis in the U.S. In order to divert criticism and ensure future oil supply links a "911 type" scenario is staged. This may take may forms but here is one - Iran with the help of North Korean scientists detonate a WMD on U.S soil (the nuke will notwork correctly as planned 1. to reduce casualties, 2.because it will reenforce the idea that the attack was carried out by a rogue state and most importantly 3. it will not be a real nuke - just a lot of conventional explosive with some small amount of radioactive material)
On a wave of renewed U.S patriotism and outrage Iran is invaded with the express purpose of "neautralising" the enemy (civilian casualties and the use of WMD ok - indeed arguments would be made than a decisive strike is needed because Iran "might fire off its own nukes" (supplied by North Korea)). Therefore there would be no occupation simplyelimination - the U.S could justify seizing the oil fields to "prevent Iran ever threatening the civilised world again" (the rhetoric would again switch from U.S centred to global defence)
However in this time Iraq has deteriorated and less oil is being pumped . OPEC and the U.S (in Iran) are asked to increase production however they are unable to do so because of 1. increased demand 2. loss of oil from Iraq .
Meanwhile Chin and Russia realise that oil has peaked and use their trade and military aliances to enter the fray. The Middle East implodes as fighting breaks out between the U.S, China, Russia, Europe and the Middle East.
Stock Markets collapse andoil production is knocked down to near zero


The End

In the UK a small petrol shortage caused panic - most people didn't even know there was a shortage until too late to get any fuel (i happended to get stuck in a traffic jam queuing for the pump)
This small shortage (there was fuel around) caused panic buying of food from all Tesco, ASDA(walmart) and local stores. - If the British who are thought to be more reserved than some act like this I have no idea what America will do.

If revolution is only three meals away - complete anarchy is only a fuel tank away.

[NeoPeasant]

I think a lot of scary things will happen in the next ten years, but anything specific is impossible to predict.
What I am confident in predicting is that if I am alive a decade from now, I will be living a much less mobile and much more austere and self sufficient life.

[TommyJefferson]

Today I filled up for $2.07 per gallon.

Good times.