[eric_b]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '
')In ecological terms our cities can be described as "detritus ecosystems." Whereby the ability to support organic life is completely dependent on inputs from outside the system. I might even go a little further and call them parasitic detritus ecosystems because they don't provide any sort of benefit by and large to surrounding natural systems.

I don't think I've ever heard someone say "Well, I'm peak oil aware now and part of my preperations will be to try and get an apartment in manhattan." Or "That's it, this peak oil stuff is serious. Time to move to a condo in central Los Angeles." : )

[ThePostman]

"I'm certainly considering where I'm going to live when I'm older, though. I'm just waiting to see where's best.[/quote]"

Canada seems likely to be "invaded" but I was thinking Brazil would be a solid choice. They are stating they'll be foreign oil INDEPENDENT within a year. They got aggressive in utiliing their vast cane fields for alternative fuel back in the early 70's as a result of the OPEC embargo. It took them 30 years to do accomplish that so unless you buy the USGS peak oil estimate of 2037 (yea, right), then we, at least here in the U.S. are pretty much screwed.

Oh, and Brazil also has Carnival! Nice bonus.

[deafskeptic]

Well said, Eric B.

We take a lot for granted but when the power and the infrastructre goes we'll be as vulerable as the 3rd world nations. It just may take longer than it would in the 3rd world.

A lot of people don't realize that in order to have the lights on, you need to manafacture light bulbs and it takes energy to do that. The same applies to a lot of things we depend on like washing machines and vacuum cleaners. What's your back up plan when the lights go out?

A lot seem to think that we'll still have electricty with hydropower but who's going to manafacture the machines and the bulbs and mine the raw material for them?

We take a lot for granted.

[gigacannon]

Well all countries in the world have upsides and downsides. Brazil, for example, has been described as a 'rich country full of poor people'. They have a massive amount of debt (although this debt will be easier to pay off if everyone elses economies go down the pan), and Brazil is also a portugeuse speaking country, and I don't speak portugeuse. Additionally, it's a Catholic country, and that would annoy me I think.

You've also got to consider the impact of mass deforestation and climate change. It's going to seriously impact their ability to grow crops for ethanol production and food, especially with a growing population. And being able to produce ethanol fuel isn't going to mean much if the shipping trade remains dependent on diesel. I can't see it shifting to anything else any time soon.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gigacannon', '
')You've also got to consider the impact of mass deforestation and climate change. It's going to seriously impact their ability to grow crops for ethanol production and food, especially with a growing population.

[gigacannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gigacannon', '
')You've also got to consider the impact of mass deforestation and climate change. It's going to seriously impact their ability to grow crops for ethanol production and food, especially with a growing population.

[rwwff]

Ummm, cities, as unpleasant as they are, do provide a benefit that people don't much think about because we take it for granted. To boil it down to its base transaction, it allows Joe Farmer to turn 20 head of cattle into a tractor with minimal effort. It allows Janet Rancher to turn 2000 barrels of oil pumped from her property into a new steel barn and stable, she takes her royalty check, deposits it into the bank, calls the steel building folks on the phone and next week constructure people are rumaging about doing their thing.

WIthout cities, none of that can happen.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wildilocks', '
')You regularly hear that we actually produce enough food to feed the worlds population, as it is now, but the problem is <I>distribution. </i>

[gigacannon]

The wide availability of varied cheap food available all year round is dependent on cheap fuel, but each country that produces food is theoretically still perfectly capable of feeding its population (unless it is massively overpopulated). For example, Italy grows a lot of grapes and olives. But you can't live off grapes and olives; it's still got enough space and production capacity to grow all the grapes and olives it needs, plus wheat for bread, and so forth. It only takes a year, and in many places less, to grow a crop; we won't be seeing mass starvation, in most places, from peak oil, but we will see less variety, which is really the same as how things were thirty odd years ago. It's no disaster.

[galacticsurfer]

half the fertilizers are made with nat. Gas, the rest is natural manure. We have multiplied our food supply a couple of times already through brute energy inputs and now we are at peak food already(USA is net food importer)due to soil erosion, city and highway building, lowering of water tables, etc. Even without peak oil and/or population growth people worldwide are going to start starving because food production has started falling due to misuse of earth's resources.

Without nat. Gas no fertilizer and without diesel fuel no tractors. How many horses are left in USA to pull manual plows? Too much land went for the suburbs. The highways and these suburbs must be ripped up to provide fertile land again and the inhabitants have to be housed in small walkable towns in the middle of these areas of farmland. So when the fertilizer and tractors are gone yields will fall precipitously and additionally massive food exports will be zilch as truck transport will be gone (heavy grain barges and trains notwithstanding). Industrial agriculture will be dead. The old south would be the only solution for that or serfdom in Russia. Either small landholding with a family farm and a small excess production or the medieval or deep south "slavery" solution with a big plantation agriculture. This will be the future for us poor unemployed, displaced working stiffs as serfs or slaves. Who else will till the land and would we rather starve immediately or accept this new paradigm? Who says democracy will win out. The reaction of US democracy after 9/11 shows how short lived the ideals really are. If Bush really attacks Iran or some similar catastrophe happens which would make for a very quick decline in oil supplies people would get hungry soon and then accept any solution proposed. The congress would pass any law the president put before them. In Europe it would not be any different.

[rwwff]

Fly from Seattle to Houston sometime, watch out the window, and then just try telling me sprawl is effecting the number of ag acres.

[grabby]

when two reservoirs are connected and the dam between them is removed, the water will average out.

We have been used to living extremely high on the hog, we call it Quality of life.

We are afraid this will change. It has to change. NAFTA ensured that all of the worlds PAYSCALE will be the same (lower average for us)

This is far below what we are used to. But it is happening as we speak. The Politicians are trying to prevent this with inflation (cover up)
it will not work.
the average wage IN THE WHOLE WORLD will be about
5 dollars a day, Since some people in china make 1 dollar a day and there are a whole lot of them

unless some die off, and bring the average up.

that is where we ALL are going.

The only way out is become a politician or leader (aka communism, fascism) where the leaders will live a HIGHER lifestyle than they do now.

the rest will be dirt poor eventually.

This is without peak oil by the way.

It is just physics. It has to be.

[JRW]

I'm going to add my tidbit. At the large scale I see the following happening. China will invade where ever it can for oil. They can amass more troops than the US has citizens. China and India will war over Caspean Sea oil, nuclear exchanges. China will invade Canada and Argentina for their oil sands producing WW III. But that won't happen until the US economy collapses and is greatly weakened by internal strife.

Which brings me to local predictions. Just as we have seen in France and now the Ukrane, people will riot when things go bad. We will be no different. There will be rioting in the streets, gangs will take off with little law enforcement, or reduced enforcement. Soldiers will be called in.

Massive unemployment will occure since most people are linked to some kind oil dependant jobs (cars, platics, transportation, construction) If your job requires liquid fuels you will be in trouble.

Some event will trigger this, something unrelated maybe. Might be a cold winter when NG runs out, or something else no one has thought of. Usually the case. The economic collapse will be unavoidable, unplannable, and chaotic.

Once the economic collapse starts, oil consumption will drop off the map save for what government rations for, hence the after peak decline will be slowed.

Order may be restored, but that will be the "dead cat bounce" as the decline will again increase.

1/3 of the population remaining? I doubt it very much. Most of Africa is dying of AIDS, so it's a write off. Russia is in decline already with it's population (I heard from a friend in Norway that thousands of Russians froze to death this past winter due to lack of fuel) I suspect the drop will bottom out some where around 10-15% before recovering in a dead cat bounce and dropping again over the next 100 years at somewhere around 5%, with an eventual extinction or near extinction several 1,000 years from now. Won't be around to find out.

However, that said. The equilibrium we will get to after oil will not be as bad as the dark ages. We will have some form of electricity and we have the infrastructures in place. We are a lot "smarter" than we were then. We just have to get over the first shock, which will be bad. If you have not already, get a gun and stock up on ammo.

Oh, and don't worry about loosing your home, you won't. The government will never allow banks to kick everyone out. Besides who will they sell tens of thousands of homes to? Many homes will be burned for fuel anyway, those abandoned. The stock market will collapse, so kiss goodby to your RRSPs!!!

Richard
London Ont.

[SoothSayer]

Some event will trigger this, something unrelated maybe. Might be a cold winter when NG runs out, or something else no one has thought of. Usually the case. The economic collapse will be unavoidable, unplannable, and chaotic.

Once the economic collapse starts, oil consumption will drop off the map save for what government rations for, hence the after peak decline will be slowed.

Order may be restored, but that will be the "dead cat bounce" as the decline will again increase.

Excellent post.

So many people are discussing 12 year plans where we build 20 more nukes (in the UK) and put up solar cells.

However they expect business-as-usual to operate whilst we make everything better.

They simply don't realise that in a stressed or panicked system a small bump in the road can cause chaos.

Sure, we may recover from some of the bumps ... but we could have a few scary riots or worse on the way.

On a personal level we may not have the resources to be able to prepare for decades of decline ... but we should make some basic preparations for a few periods of short-term chaos over the next few years.