PeakOil is You
80% of producing countries past peak
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80% of producing countries past peak
by Pops » Mon 23 Jan 2012, 16:53:56
Here's a good list of oil producing countries showing who's increasing production, who appears to have peaked and who might be.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: 80% of producing countries past peak
by eXpat » Mon 23 Jan 2012, 18:45:01
Whow!!!! 
Oil shock, when finally arrives is going to be ugly
Oil shock, when finally arrives is going to be ugly
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George Bernard Shaw
“You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
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Re: 80% of producing countries past peak
by Cog » Mon 23 Jan 2012, 18:56:57
I'm sure a cornie will be along any time now to tell us there is nothing to worry about.
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Re: 80% of producing countries past peak
by Armageddon » Mon 23 Jan 2012, 19:23:27
Didn't you guys know the earth makes its own oil and oil fields replenish themselves. 
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Re: 80% of producing countries past peak
by Daniel_Plainview » Mon 23 Jan 2012, 19:40:20
As always, KSA is the big question mark:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')audi Arabia is a bit of a question mark – it produced 10% less than its peak year (2005) in 2010, but claims that it has ample spare capacity and reserves to push beyond the old highs.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')audi Arabia is a bit of a question mark – it produced 10% less than its peak year (2005) in 2010, but claims that it has ample spare capacity and reserves to push beyond the old highs.
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Re: 80% of producing countries past peak
by SeaGypsy » Mon 23 Jan 2012, 20:33:01
http://www.countercurrents.org/mushalik220112.htm
Excuse double post, this graphic as posted in the Australia discussion forum shows some absolutely fantastical figures out of SA and the entire ME, plateau going for another 5-6 decades. I find the general acceptance of these figures more astounding than the figures themselves.
Excuse double post, this graphic as posted in the Australia discussion forum shows some absolutely fantastical figures out of SA and the entire ME, plateau going for another 5-6 decades. I find the general acceptance of these figures more astounding than the figures themselves.
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Re: 80% of producing countries past peak
by AdamB » Thu 28 Aug 2025, 14:56:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'I')'m sure a cornie will be along any time now to tell us there is nothing to worry about.
How about someone who knew it wasn't a big deal back then, and is still here now pointing out how thoroughly uninformed your ilk was in the moment?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: 80% of producing countries past peak
by AgentR11 » Thu 28 Aug 2025, 19:05:10
Projecting in error is not really "uninformed" though. More like, just wrong. Everyone had the same knowable facts; no one could just up and say the future is grim because xxxxx. So we're running on a plateau now, demand, price, and supply playing their game of whose use or production is more economically acceptable.
I wonder if there ever is a crash in production where production simply can't match reasonably priced demand; what will happen then, how can the personal vehicle compete against the value of shipping food in a semi that was delivered to a depot by rail or ship? I wonder where that break point is too, where the semi can't deliver to the grocer at a price that allows the food to be sold on the open market. That might provoke the "collapse" that everyone was waiting for, but is that even a possibility, I dunno.
I wonder if there ever is a crash in production where production simply can't match reasonably priced demand; what will happen then, how can the personal vehicle compete against the value of shipping food in a semi that was delivered to a depot by rail or ship? I wonder where that break point is too, where the semi can't deliver to the grocer at a price that allows the food to be sold on the open market. That might provoke the "collapse" that everyone was waiting for, but is that even a possibility, I dunno.
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Re: 80% of producing countries past peak
by AdamB » Thu 28 Aug 2025, 21:30:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'P')rojecting in error is not really "uninformed" though. More like, just wrong.
Well, there is a difference between the two. "Projecting in error" certainly describes the WHY peak oilers came out with egg on face....I assign the term "uinformed" because that is exactly what causes someone to project in error. They were uninformed about the O&G business, reserves and resources, no idea how they worked within the upstrealm realm or the stimuli that causes a reaction of increased, or decreasing, volumes.
But yes, they sure were balls in the wind, dumb as a stump wrong. And uninformed.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')Everyone had the same knowable facts; no one could just up and say the future is grim because xxxxx.
No. They didn't all have the same facts. Colin had access to the old PetroConsultants global oilfield main file. He wrote up a little pamphlett using it end of 20th century. They pulled his access after he used it poorly. And Colin wasn't allowed to share the data. So he had knowable facts...and only some of us had it as well. I had access to 2018. Needed it to solve peak oil. What did Colin do with it? Sold end times to suckers.
And the answer isn't XXXX, too definitive. The answer is a probability density function. I don't imagine anyone ever gave Colin an education in statistics.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11"
So we're running on a plateau now, demand, price, and supply playing their game of whose use or production is more economically acceptable.[/quote]
Well, to be clear peak was 2018, but certainly it wasn't the distinct ramp up, hold steady, ramp down as imagined by those who haven't ever gotten any of their peak oils correct.
[quote="AgentR11', '
')I wonder if there ever is a crash in production where production simply can't match reasonably priced demand; what will happen then, how can the personal vehicle compete against the value of shipping food in a semi that was delivered to a depot by rail or ship?
The personal vehicle can't compete. And when a situation like this happened during the 1979 global peak oil, the US began rationing fuels to consumers. That is what happened.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
') I wonder where that break point is too, where the semi can't deliver to the grocer at a price that allows the food to be sold on the open market. That might provoke the "collapse" that everyone was waiting for, but is that even a possibility, I dunno.
An interesting scenario. Maybe rationing again, in order for personal users to get some (I just need electricity of course
) but for food continuing to move and whatnot.Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"