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635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

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635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 03 May 2007, 02:53:26

635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow much power can renewable energy generate in the U.S. if the appropriate mix of policies and market-based incentives are implemented? According to a joint report coordinated by the American Council On Renewable Energy (ACORE), the answer is 635 gigawatts (GW) by 2025.

Released yesterday, the 2007 Outlook on Renewable Energy in America projects that wind power could account for 248 GW; solar energy 164 GW; hydro, ocean and tidal energy 23 GW; geothermal energy 100 GW; and biomass and biofuels 100 GW.

But unless steps are taken to change the perceptions of U.S. politicians and policymakers, the report concludes that coordinated, sustained policies that expand renewable energy markets, promote and deploy new technology, and encourage renewable energy use in critical market sectors can't happen.


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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Thu 03 May 2007, 03:16:14

Once again, its a real shame all that money was sunk into the pit that is Iraq. We could have had a bundle of clean power if the money was better spent.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Newsseeker » Thu 03 May 2007, 10:51:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'O')nce again, its a real shame all that money was sunk into the pit that is Iraq. We could have had a bundle of clean power if the money was better spent.


But that requires thinking ahead, something this administration is not very good at doing.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby aahala » Thu 03 May 2007, 11:18:02

I guess any claim about the future that is not self-contradictory
or is not a violation of a physical law is possible, but it's reports
like this that are so extreme as to give renewables a bad name.

Look at these numbers: 248 GWH from wind in another 18 years.
That's 100 times what we have built the last 18 years. The 164
from solar(I presume cells) is more than 400 times the power added last year for the entire world!

Stated in another way, the report claims we could go from .6%
of grid power from wind to more than 50% of the present
production. What would be the annualized rate of growth on
that? Solar is even worse, much worse. In 2006 solar wasn't
.6% of the grid, but like 2% of wind!!!
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Newsseeker » Thu 03 May 2007, 11:28:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', 'I') guess any claim about the future that is not self-contradictory
or is not a violation of a physical law is possible, but it's reports
like this that are so extreme as to give renewables a bad name.

Look at these numbers: 248 GWH from wind in another 18 years.
That's 100 times what we have built the last 18 years. The 164
from solar(I presume cells) is more than 400 times the power added last year for the entire world!

Stated in another way, the report claims we could go from .6%
of grid power from wind to more than 50% of the present
production. What would be the annualized rate of growth on
that? Solar is even worse, much worse. In 2006 solar wasn't
.6% of the grid, but like 2% of wind!!!


Wishful thinking has its place but, yeah, I think that you are right.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 03 May 2007, 11:31:26

I agree with aahala. These kinds of claims not apparently based on reality, but on some mythical "could" - I find them extremely annoying and not helpful.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Valdemar » Thu 03 May 2007, 11:34:23

It's possible in the same way it's possible for me to become a multi-billionaire by extracting gold from seawater. In other words, total wishful thinking assuming little niggles like reality don't impede the theoretical limit to which we can manufacture solar and wind if we had no obstacles like lobbyists, cost and myopic sight.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Andy » Thu 03 May 2007, 12:55:24

The report is very aggressive but certainly not impossible if we decided to focus on renewables primarily. That is the gist of what they are saying. Certainly in the U.S, the issue is not lack of applicable resource with the desert southwest, the great plains, the northeast offshore etc. Take wind for example, let's assume a 20% or so growth rate per year (not impossible but extremely unlikely), that is 26 times current installed capacity or about 280,000 MW installed. That is the kind of lofty thinking we need regarding the goals to be set for renewables along with aggressive conservation and efficiency.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby matt21811 » Thu 03 May 2007, 18:38:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'O')nce again, its a real shame all that money was sunk into the pit that is Iraq. We could have had a bundle of clean power if the money was better spent.


Spot on.

420 billion at $1 million per megawatt of installed capacity for wind is 420 GW of "free" clean electricity.

The reason wind is only .6% of power is that it has to compete with coal and nuclear on price. If the oil subsidy gets switched to a wind subsidy, I dont see any reason why it cant scale up much more than it has.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Starvid » Thu 03 May 2007, 19:02:10

Electricity aint the problem, remember?

We could build 635 GW of nuclear power just like that, but that won't help much.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 03 May 2007, 19:06:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('matt21811', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cobra_Strike', 'O')nce again, its a real shame all that money was sunk into the pit that is Iraq. We could have had a bundle of clean power if the money was better spent.


Spot on.

420 billion at $1 million per megawatt of installed capacity for wind is 420 GW of "free" clean electricity.

The reason wind is only .6% of power is that it has to compete with coal and nuclear on price. If the oil subsidy gets switched to a wind subsidy, I dont see any reason why it cant scale up much more than it has.


I can give you the two reasons right now with two acronyms.

NIMBY & BANANA
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby matt21811 » Thu 03 May 2007, 19:11:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'E')lectricity aint the problem, remember?

We could build 635 GW of nuclear power just like that, but that won't help much.



Sure it will. If you stop burning coal you can use that coal for CTL.

The very worst estimate for CTL that I have seen is 80 billion for 1 million barrels a day. I did a bit more research about the cost of Iraq and most estimates are between 1 and 2 Trillion. If you go for self funding nuclear then you could build between 12.5 to 25 million barrels a day CTL capacity with the Iraq wastage.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Valdemar » Thu 03 May 2007, 19:22:43

This also assumes the US even has something of an economy in the next few years. With the housing boom, the horrific loss of value in the dollar and Iraq, they couldn't have picked a better time to start saying "Hey, if we pump a few trillion into renewables, we'll be okay". The US can ill afford to do such massive projects today as it is. And yet, they can ill afford to not do such projects.

I'd suggest cutting money from somewhere else in the US budget, but frankly I'd sooner see the US embracing socialism than cut down on, say, military spending.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby matt21811 » Thu 03 May 2007, 19:38:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', 'I')'d sooner see the US embracing socialism than cut down on, say, military spending.


I'd sooner see the US cut down its military spending. I cant see any logical reason to spend just under half the worlds military budget. If they cut it down to a third the worlds military budget then they free up 200 billion a year. Over a decade you could replace all oil with CTL or you could make electricty almost free with nuclear. Or a mix of both.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Valdemar » Thu 03 May 2007, 19:40:11

And give up the American Empire that's doing so well? I think not, you anti-American person.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby matt21811 » Thu 03 May 2007, 19:55:49

Sorry, I got caught out because the first paragraph of your post was, presumably, not sarcastic.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Valdemar » Thu 03 May 2007, 20:09:57

The opening was serious, yes. The bit about socialism, well, consider how likely that is when stacked next to the US cutting back on energy use. They seem pretty comparable.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Starvid » Thu 03 May 2007, 20:25:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('matt21811', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'E')lectricity aint the problem, remember?

We could build 635 GW of nuclear power just like that, but that won't help much.



Sure it will. If you stop burning coal you can use that coal for CTL.

The very worst estimate for CTL that I have seen is 80 billion for 1 million barrels a day. I did a bit more research about the cost of Iraq and most estimates are between 1 and 2 Trillion. If you go for self funding nuclear then you could build between 12.5 to 25 million barrels a day CTL capacity with the Iraq wastage.

The problem with CTL is not coal availability. You can have both coal power and liquid coal. Plenty of stuff in the ground. The problems with CTL is capital cost and physical infrastructure, and of course CO2 emissions.

Massive deployment of nuclear capacity will in that way "free up" coal for liquefaction - without increased CO2-emissions. And having plentiful cheap electricity post peak won't hurt either.
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Thu 03 May 2007, 21:43:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', 'I') guess any claim about the future that is not self-contradictory
or is not a violation of a physical law is possible, but it's reports
like this that are so extreme as to give renewables a bad name.

Look at these numbers: 248 GWH from wind in another 18 years.
That's 100 times what we have built the last 18 years. The 164
from solar(I presume cells) is more than 400 times the power added last year for the entire world!

Stated in another way, the report claims we could go from .6%
of grid power from wind to more than 50% of the present
production. What would be the annualized rate of growth on
that? Solar is even worse, much worse. In 2006 solar wasn't
.6% of the grid, but like 2% of wind!!!


The growth rate for wind power would have to be roughly 30% a year for the next 18 years.

That is certainly possible in the early stages.

But when you start talking about adding the last 100 GW in 3 years... :roll:
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Re: 635 GW Possible with U.S. Political Shift

Unread postby matt21811 » Thu 03 May 2007, 22:49:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
But when you start talking about adding the last 100 GW in 3 years... :roll:


100 000 MW with 5MW per tower is 20,000 windmills. Thats a lot but the biggest impediment is the NIMBY's. I think a scheme where if you can see a wind turbine from your house you get the generation cost free (4-8c per kWhr discount) then people might be fighting to get one put near them as it would increase their land value instead of decreasing it.

I wonder how many times more complicated it is to make a 5MW windmill than it is to make a typical car?
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