[Newfie]

I wonder why the big dip about 1960?

[dissident]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', 'I')nteresting graph

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'S')pot on Ennui. We have been and are continuing in denial mode. See the Archdruid Report as Greer now has some interesting comments about this.

[Pops]

I think saying "will be" is the eternal problem. Here are 3 UN scenarios




This one is better, showing regional trends



In the world of BAU, increasing population and especially increasing working age population is a great thing. That of course is the conundrum of immigration for conservatives in the US, balancing the Chamber wing (who need young workers/consumers) with the far right or old southern Dem wing who want to build a wall.

This PDF from the UN touts the great possibilities of a young workforce in transitional countries but between the lines seems to push programs more designed to educate girls and get them to the iPhone factory with the actual goal of reducing fertility.

[dissident]

Yeah, whatever.

Under no scenario do we get a decline below 7 billion people by 2050. That is the critical point considering the looming agricultural collapse. But some people think global warming and its effects are all a commie hoax. They also think Roundup will save humanity.

[Newfie]

Dis,
I am tone deaf, can't hold a tune, can't make the radio loud enough for me to sing along. I just don't have it.

Likewise I have done systems integration. Many otherwise good engineers just don't understand it, don't get it, think it's a rip off. The ones that do get it are usually doomers. Not overtly, but after a few beers, yeah. The connection is being able to put disparit pieces together, to understand the ways things link. It's a gift, not all have it. You can't teach it.

It appears to be an unnecessary requirement to be a politician or businessman. Or even for many engineers. Thusrojects over run or fail needlessly.

And there we are here .

[C8]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', 'I')nteresting graph

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'T')his isn't a scientific chart- its propaganda.

[Strummer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') wonder why the big dip about 1960?

[Newfie]

Dooh!
I was thinking the WWII drop would be in 1942.

[Strummer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'D')ooh!
I was thinking the WWII drop would be in 1942.

[C8]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'T')his isn't a scientific chart- its propaganda.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'D')ooh!
I was thinking the WWII drop would be in 1942.

[Newfie]

I can't find a good source for this damn graph.

A denier site credits the 1962 drop to China's Great Leap Forward.

[dissident]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') can't find a good source for this damn graph.

A denier site credits the 1962 drop to China's Great Leap Forward.

[Pops]

Here is a essay on the Great Leap that talks about the dip
http://www.angelfire.com/super/chrisgun ... napop.html
The chart data comes from US Census Bureau, it shows up consistently on a Google image search for pop. rate

I think the left side of the chart shows the world changing unevenly and the right you see a more uniform world.

Maybe the problem for the latecomers to urbanisation and low birth rate, in Africa especially but maybe Asia too, is they get the "benefit" of industrialisation in the form of food and other aid aid but not the structural social change that makes smaller families desireable.

African's mortality rate is still the highest but half what it was 50 years ago, this is infants:



But the fertility rate decline is lagging because industrialization is not widespread?

[wake]

Is the drop in 1960 not simply the birth control pill?

Wikipedia has its first use in 1960

Women taking control of fertility for the first time in any species in the history of time is a relatively big deal (yes, Romans and that sylphium herb or whatever)

the big dip I don't know but after that it seems likely to be it, no ?

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '[') Why? Because doomers need to be a killjoy, and there's no better target for being a killjoy than to go after anything that might actually be a source of optimism.

[Newfie]

Pops,
I see this graph as you describe from 1950 forward. It was the Pre-1950 bit that got me.

Sorry for lack of clarity.

[Revi]

It's interesting that 23 NYT Journalists would say that overpopulation is a myth. They probably aren't stuffing themselves into a boat to cross from Libya to Europe or freezing on a mountain in Bulgaria or crawling under a fence on the US/Mexico border in the hopes of a better life. They are probably comfortably housed and fed in suburban or rich urban settings and don't even know what's going on.