by Aaron » Sun 22 Jan 2006, 11:15:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hotsacks', 'E')xamplegiven,you make an excellent point about the depressive,self limiting POV of some posters here.Perhaps you can give us your analysis of the current energy situation as well as your ideas on how to deal with the supply/demand tension.
One thing's certain,you can't contribute from an armchair.Take the floor.You've inspired one of our news editors to start a thread on optimistic news items.Who knows but what you have to say could change the most misanthropic,backwards leaning,luddite loving minds among us?
I have one for you.
It's sad when the circus leaves town... but that means it's headed for a new town.
Despite longer-range predictions of regional & global conflict, (or perhaps because of this), the near-term prospects for some market sectors would seem to be excellent.
If we observe that the major oil & gas producers have been making investments over the past 2 decades anticipating $20 per barrel pricing, then the advent of prices 3 times that high mean a massive windfall surge of profit for these industries.
This in turn creates a trickle-down economic impact for the massive energy sector goods & services markets.
Therefore, I predict that the energy markets will boom into a period of unprecedented growth that will make the dot com/ENRON days look like kindergarten.
As things heat-up, truly amazing amounts of money will change hands as the players scramble for position.
And the rich/poor gap will swell; devouring the middle-class around the globe, and depositing most on the poor side of this gulf.
It's the next round of investing that is at issue in my mind.
Investing for a future with much higher energy costs, which rise year after year.
I fully expect the infusion of capital from energy markets to sustain global economic growth for as much as another decade.
Which is great for the "haves" this decade, but maybe not so good once the feeding frenzy ends...
By then, the situation should be so dire, and the inequity in wealth so large, as to guarantee war in all it's wonder.
Of course some unforeseen event may make a shambles of any prediction.
If we find a new Ghawar, or India nukes Pakistan, or the middle east melts down, or aliens land on the White House lawn, all bets are off.
But there is no denying that the oil sector is wildly profitable right now.
And given the underlying investment structures and relative price points, it's not hard to imagine the energy sector becoming the vehicle for an unprecedented concentration of wealth.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.
Hazel Henderson